Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

[amugs]

El Nino - Modoki style here peeps and this type of set up favors the mid Atlantic region



Need to nudge that Aluetian LP a bit west and BOOOOOMMMMM!!

1.2 down - YESSS!!!
Nino 1+2 and 3 down...3.4 steady....4 up.
1.2 3 3.4 4 (Dateline!!!)
07OCT2015 2.7 2.8 2.4 1.0
14OCT2015 2.5 2.6 2.4 1.1

Lets look




So what does this mean?? It means the trop forcing will be setting up at the DL(dateline) which is excellent news at this stage - it may take until January to get all the players playing nice/coming together (epo, pna, ao and nao) but this means we do not have a 97-98 blowtorch winter. So IMHO forget the warm solution that some are suggesting!

[amugs]

Lets Look at the state of our beloved snow growth way up North and how rocky is doing:

Oct 10th


Oct 18th



Look at that growth and upward movement by this chart - great sign.

Not done yet peeps - forecasts here looking very good for the next ten days as per snow growth

GFS - this is liquid equivalent frozen precip over the next 10 days! Grow and Growing like that weed in your lawn in the summer heat!


Here is Rocky:

Look at him grow

[amugs]

These are a list of years in which tropical forcing was right around the dateline (note only includes mod + strong Ninos)

1957-1958 (anomalies were dateline to 140W or so) (west-based)
1963-1964 (anomalies were dateline to 140W or so) (west-based)
1965-1966 (anomalies were around 150W or so) (west-based)
1972-1973 (anomalies were 155W to 120W or so) (basin wide Nino)
1986-1987 (anomalies were dateline to 130W or so) (west-based...? although could be basin wide I guess)
2002-2003 (anomalies were right about dateline) (west-based)
2009-2010 (anomalies just to west and east of dateline) (west-based)

most of those winters were pretty sweet I believe...except 72-73 but pattern similarities to those years would offer a ton of potential this winter.

[Frank_Wx]

Whatever Mugs puts in his coffee in the morning...

I want some.

[HectorO]

Just heard on WCBS 880 a.m. at 3:00 p.m. that this winter will be much milder and wetter for the tri-state area with way less snow than last year.  It was one of their headline stories at 3.

Looks like they are taking NOAA's forecast

So the whole country is going to be warm besides florida to texas?

[docstox12]

Looks like NOAA buying into the super El Nino scenario.Kind of early I would think at this juncture.IMHO, I would wait until the end of November to see how everything sets up.What's the rush, lot's of winters don't get cranking around here until late December anyway.

[rb924119]

Just thought I'd ask: anybody see how close the 12z EURO OP actually comes to a classic Miller-A just in time for Halloween??

[nutleyblizzard]

https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-201516/Steve D's winter forecast. Get the snowblowers ready!

[Frank_Wx]

A mainly average to below average temp regime the rest of this month. We'll see some days of 70s mixed in, but for the most part it'll be 60's and 50s.

[Frank_Wx]

Just thought I'd ask: anybody see how close the 12z EURO OP actually comes to a classic Miller-A just in time for Halloween??

In general, I feel the last few days of October and possibly the first week of November we'll see above normal precip. It looks pretty dry until then.

[Frank_Wx]

https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-201516/Steve D's winter forecast. Get the snowblowers ready!

Not bad. I always enjoyed his winter outlooks. I do feel it could provide a bit more detail but overall I liked it.

[Frank_Wx]

Typhoon Champi is expected to re-curve the western Pacific over the next 7-12 days. Amazingly, the GFS deepens this system to sub 930mb. We'll see if it gets that strong. Needless to say, watch for colder than normal temps near Halloween as a result of the re-curve.

[Math23x7]

Typhoon Champi is expected to re-curve the western Pacific over the next 7-12 days. Amazingly, the GFS deepens this system to sub 930mb. We'll see if it gets that strong. Needless to say, watch for colder than normal temps near Halloween as a result of the re-curve.

Fri. Oct. 30th, Sat. Oct. 31st, and Sun, Nov. 1st are when Games 3, 4, and (if necessary) Game 5 of the World Series, which will take place at either Wrigley Field in Chicago or Citi Field in New York.  For my sake, I hope it's Citi Field, but based on what you're saying, if they play the games there, then the weather will be a repeat of the weather from Games 1 and 2 of the NLCS at Citi Field this past weekend: Downright Chilly!

[Frank_Wx]

Yea Mike, could be an interesting storm around that time frame depending on the timing of the trough.

The models are pretty lost in the long range. Natural when we have both a Typhoon and amplifying MJO impacting our pattern.

[jmanley32]

Yea Mike, could be an interesting storm around that time frame depending on the timing of the trough.

The models are pretty lost in the long range. Natural when we have both a Typhoon and amplifying MJO impacting our pattern.

Rb had mentiuoned Euro showing at about 240 starting to show a Miller A, is there any chance this could be a snow event redux 2011? If not still a good noreaster, if things come together right or way to early to know? Also if it did snow that much that early, does that really necessarily correlate with a warm and snowless winter as some have eluded to in the past? I like Steve D take, very stormy, sounds fun. Your back and forth about him heh,

[docstox12]

https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-201516/Steve D's winter forecast. Get the snowblowers ready!

Much more positive than the NOAA long range.Again, still too early.I'll be interested in late November to see what develops, but so far so good.

[rb924119]

HOLY EURO!!

[rb924119]

00z GFS now picks up on what the EURO was hinting at yesterday, but now has back-to-back-to-back nor'easters, while the EURO develops a system along the Gulf Coast but shears it out along the baroclinic zone. I think we're starting to catch glimpses of how much, if not all, of this winter is going to be. These types of patterns have been prevalent so far this season.

[Frank_Wx]

00z GFS now picks up on what the EURO was hinting at yesterday, but now has back-to-back-to-back nor'easters, while the EURO develops a system along the Gulf Coast but shears it out along the baroclinic zone. I think we're starting to catch glimpses of how much, if not all, of this winter is going to be. These types of patterns have been prevalent so far this season.

The 28th to 31st time frame has potential. Pattern amplification from the MJO will definitely get the STJ rolling. Two key things:

1. Will there be any form of Atlantic blocking?

2. How will the PJ (polar jet) behave? The timing between it and the STJ will be critical.

[Snow88]

All of the models are on board with a big storm near months end. Here is the GGEM.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html

[NjWeatherGuy]

GFS has a massive cutter that cuts itself off and drifts east.

[algae888]

GFS has a massive cutter that cuts itself off and drifts east.

cmc also...

[amugs]

This is the Euro Seasonal and the NMME Jan. Where do I sign???? -EPO, +PNA trough in the east and STJ pumping - looks like a snow machine for the mid Atlantic.

[amugs]

[UnionWX]

It snowed in NWNJ October 2009, so I don't believe the "october snow correlates to bad winters" phrase is 100% efficient. Also, pattern looks to become more active in the next week or so.

[jmanley32]

12z euro too with what looks like miller a maybe a ctter but it spawns 2 lp one right after other same time frame. Another halloween ruined? Could cold coincide with this and get entrenched enough to pull off like a few yes ago. I know I asked earlier but was just curious if this go be a possible rain noreaster or could it snow even down to coast like 2011. Union I hope you are right. I don't remember so in October 2009. Not significant like in 2011 anyways.

[jmanley32]

I realize too it may not materialize.

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