Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

[jmanley32]

But he said halo ween storm looks to b mainly dry on Halloween if those runs hold timeframe. Of course I suppose this far out either could jump in one direction or other.

While the time frame I call out in the scroll includes Halloween, it does not mean it will rain on Halloween. The timing of both storms could be the 28th-29th and 1st-2nd. So Halloween could be salvaged. That is looking increasingly likely but still a decent time out for change to occur.

I figured Frank was just checking to see if you saw something that would push either system into Halloween itself. A storm before and after, sounds fun! Wish it was go be frozen, then again that would cause a lot of problems.

[Frank_Wx]

@ Frank,
As per the discussion on El Nino and region 1.2 warming, yes it is going to warm with a Kelvin Wave or WWB but it dissipates as it moves from 140W to the eastern regions, you have a slight and I am saying slight increase in water temps during this time frame then the forcing returns to the date line. So it is wrinkle in our nino as I see. i could be wrong but NOTHING is pointing to a sustained warming in this region. Can it delay somethings for winter - possibly but I am not leaning towards a blockbuster December - it all depends on the next few weeks - like to see the pattern evolve with cutters and coastals and other atmospheric dynamics.

Look at the forcing return to the dateline area - this to me is KEY!!

But we're also in a situation where we do not want to see 3.4 grow much more either, haha.

1. The central regions of the ENSO must be stronger than the eastern one's. We're trending in that direction.

2. Once the central regions are stronger, we have to make sure the warming does not continue and the peak is reached quickly.

[Frank_Wx]

But he said halo ween storm looks to b mainly dry on Halloween if those runs hold timeframe. Of course I suppose this far out either could jump in one direction or other.

While the time frame I call out in the scroll includes Halloween, it does not mean it will rain on Halloween. The timing of both storms could be the 28th-29th and 1st-2nd. So Halloween could be salvaged. That is looking increasingly likely but still a decent time out for change to occur.

I figured Frank was just checking to see if you saw something that would push either system into Halloween itself.  A storm before and after, sounds fun!  Wish it was go be frozen, then again that would cause a lot of problems.

Looks like the 1st system will come in around the 29th.

2nd system around the 2nd.

With a possible 3rd system in the mix between 3rd-4th.

[amugs]

Lots of divergence on this model output for the basin wide nino which is going to pump or indicate that our STJ that was Sooooo quiet all summer will fire up: All the purples are indicative of this

[Frank_Wx]

This upper air pattern screams cutters. Decent rains headed our way soon enough.

[rb924119]

Noted something quite interesting in my "studies" of seasonal forecasting (or at least I think it's interesting lol). I don't have time at the moment to do a write-up, but I should have it ready by midweek to express my thoughts on it.

[Frank_Wx]

El Nino watch: Models projecting Nino to remain in "super" status through Nov. Peak likely in December.

[nutleyblizzard]

El Nino watch: Models projecting Nino to remain in "super" status through Nov. Peak likely in December.

Does it really matter if the peak is delayed as long as the best forcing ends up at the dateline?

[Frank_Wx]

We're likely headed toward an above normal regime in November. The MJO is lagging through phase 2 and will eventually works its way into phase 3. EURO OP H5 showing -PNA to bring ridging into eastern U.S.



MJO...



H5 composite's of an MJO in phase 2 in November looks pretty similar to what EURO OP is showing.

[billg315]

I've had so many people ask me in the last few weeks what it means in terms of snow and cold for this area that this will be "an El Nino" winter. I think some media reports have given the impression that if there is an El Nino it results in very definitive weather for various regions of the country (and in terms of above average rainfall on the west coast I think that is usually true). But I've had to explain that it is a little more complicated than that. I think this is sort of interesting read, mostly for the fact that it emphasizes that El Nino alone doesn't tell the whole story and that there are multiple factors to be looked at (as many on here have already pointed out).

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Weather-Winter-Storm-Snow-Philadelphia-Glenn-Hurricane-Schwartz-335870141.html

[skinsfan1177]

I really hope DJF deliver the goods for us all.

[Frank_Wx]

El Nino watch: Models projecting Nino to remain in "super" status through Nov. Peak likely in December.

Does it really matter if the peak is delayed as long as the best forcing ends up at the dateline?

I don't think the peak is delayed. Most statistical models have been showing these conditions persisting through November. We have to keep in mind, even if the forcing is over the Dateline that's just going to amp up the STJ even more. That combined with a super El Nino will overwhelm the pattern and we'll run into a situation of seeing above normal temps with a LOT of rain.

Yes, we want the forcing there but preferably when Nino region 3.4 declines under 2.0*C

[skinsfan1177]

So we have a long way to go to get things right for us snow weenies then.

[Frank_Wx]

So we have a long way to go to get things right for us snow weenies then.

Yes

[amugs]

Interesting - as per this chart 1.2 on its way down big tie - great news. 3.4 and 4 up - EPO waters look strong as well. This is going to be very interesting moving forward.

[nutleyblizzard]

Interesting - as per this chart 1.2 on its way down big tie - great news. 3.4 and 4 up - EPO waters look strong as well. This is going  to be very interesting moving forward.

Hey mugs nice graphics. I like how this Nino is shaping up...cooling in eastern areas/warming in the west. The EPO region looks good too. The only fly in the ointment I see as of now if there's a delay in the peak. As long as it occurs by the time December rolls around, we should be in good shape and be looking at the prospects of a great winter.

[NjWeatherGuy]

November/early December is usually the times when cutters are prevalent as the pattern is changing and that may be what were seeing.

[jmanley32]

Frank euro is showing a period of wind advisory or higher level gusts with cutter are u buying this or do u think it will just b rain?

[amugs]

1.2 it may have another little spike but this region is cooling lime the change of seasons here

[Frank_Wx]

Frank euro is showing a period of wind advisory or higher level gusts with cutter are u buying this or do u think it will just b rain?

We'll see 20-30mph winds Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning

[Frank_Wx]

Attached is an outline of what you can expect to read in my winter outlook next Monday

Attachments

winter weather outlook.doc Outline of my winter outlookYou don't have permission to download attachments.(28 Kb) Downloaded 35 times

[amugs]

Region 3.4 looks to be on eh downward side a bit as well - DT saying Modoki Basin Wide Nino



Kool and the Gang in the PAC - good news overall - man is this getting interesting.



If we go Modoki or some hybrid of BW and Modoki then we could see .............uhmmmmmm, we'll let Frank inform us!

[amugs]

Region 4 baby - got to love it - Dateline forcing - this will help the - EPO south of the Aluetians

[nutleyblizzard]

Latest ENSO weeklies are in. Regions 1@2 are at 2.2. Down .03 from last week. Region 3 is holding steady at 2.6. Region 3.4 has climbed to 2.5 which is just below the mark of 2.6 held in 1997. The biggest news though is the latest reading at region 4. It's now standing at 1.3 which ties the all time mark for October 2009!

[Frank_Wx]

Latest ENSO weeklies are in. Regions 1@2 are at 2.2. Down .03 from last week. Region 3 is holding steady at 2.6. Region 3.4 has climbed to 2.5 which is just below the mark of 2.6 held in 1997. The biggest news though is the latest reading at region 4. It's now standing at 1.3 which ties the all time mark for October 2009!

Wowzers.......

[nutleyblizzard]

Just checked the daily ENSO graph for regions 1@2. It continues to cool off rapidly. One can argue that we will have a central based/Modoki event in the coming weeks.

[amugs]

Just checked the daily ENSO graph for regions 1@2. It continues to cool off rapidly. One can argue that we will have a central based/Modoki event in the coming weeks.

Nuts,

Absolutely, and AWESOME NEWS AT THAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I have the feeling as I wrote about weeks ago on here how the models - now everyone open theior ears and eyes - LAG behind what is actually occurring ESPECIALLY in the ENSO  and ARCTIC regions. This lag could be 2-3 weeks BUT nonetheless this is awesome. My gut feeling is we peak in the next month - you watch and we start to head down to moderate stage by mid/late Dec. The problem could be a round of Kelvin Waves or WWBs that could cause a slight spike in SST's but the trade winds usually reverse by this time so they could negate these phenomena.  And this from Isotherm:

"The recent significant cooling in region 1+2 is essentially cutting off the proverbial feet of the ENSO event; marginal warming is possible in the central regions. But we're likely going to see the leveling off with peak being attained in November." Don't mess with Therm!!

Now we have the AO and NAO modality to keep an eye on - the indices or charts for this DJFM time frame from the July and winter month relationship points towards a negative AO and NAO starting Dec. With the slug of moisture and the STJ  becoming activate (hopefully like Vic Cruz for the Giants) things get really interesting - 1957-58 perhaps or a hybrid of 57-58 and 77-78 - now  that would be fricking awesome. Hey, the EPO is going to get help from the trop forcing that is now strongly entrenched out to the dateline - not saying crazy cold like last winter but the area of waters south of Aleutians will IMO give us he -EPO which will help provide a cross polar flow from our neighboring cold war friends in Russia or (Rooosha - roll the R when say IT!).

This from earthlight  on the AO and NA0 - very well respected Met and a BIG WOOP WOOP!!

The July AO number, which was -1.108, was the second lowest July AO number on record, only falling behind 2009. While this doesn't seem particularly interesting at first, there seems to be a developing correlation, and a strong one, between that July AO number and the modality of the AO in the following DJF. In fact, 13 of the 15 most negative July AO years had a - AO modality in the following DJF.

Year          July AO          DJF AO    

2009        -1.3                 -3.4

2015        -1.1                 ? my guess - Math do your magic here kid and give us some stat analysis so we can get a scientific guess at best what we are looking at - I am calling for -1.5

1962        -0.9                -1.9

1968        -0.8               -2.2

1950        -0.8               -0.8

1958        -0.6               -1.3

2000         -0.6              -0.9

1957         -0.6              -0.9

1980         -0.6              -0.1

1960         -0.6             -0.4

1978         -0.6             -1.3

1971        -0.5               0.2

1972        -0.5              -0.4

1993        -0.5              -0.4

1965        -0.5              -1.5

1977        -0.4              -1.2



There is only one year in that dataset that didn't feature a DJF -AO modality after a -AO in July. Additionally, the 2m temperature composite is very cold throughout the Northern 1/3 of the US when considering the DJF's after a -AO July of more than -0.5.

The NAO this July was also the most negative ever (yes, ever). The Top 10 -NAO July composite for the following DJF is so weenie-ish I won't even post it, even when taking out all -QBO years. There is a huge central based blocking signal.

He won't but I will:
           J        F        M       A       M       Ju         JULY                                                                     A        S
2015   1.79   1.32   1.45   0.73   0.15  -0.07  -3.18  -0.76  -0.65

[Sponsored content]