Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

[rb924119]

Do you guys use the Rutgers Snow Lab graphics at all? They make it so easy to compare instead of trying to do it by eye....

[amugs]

Do you guys use the Rutgers Snow Lab graphics at all? They make it so easy to compare instead of trying to do it by eye....

Rb yes and I put the links to both the RU lab and NOAA labs in the weather education thread. NOAA has very nice graphics. And speaking of looky see here:



You want see the snow growth by elapsed time anyone?? Here is teh site

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/nh/20151002-20151010

@Al, snow growth building through Nov as Frank stated is a key sign to our -AO for the winter, may not be in Dec but the JFM months is when will see this bad boy IMHO.

[amugs]

10 days elapses per RU - better than their football team - HAHAHA!

Oct 8


Oct 18th


Oct 28th


Look at the snow growth below the 60 degree line and teh forecast - double MADONNNNEEEE!!

[nutleyblizzard]

Someone over at American wx did a case study with moderate and strong Ninos and warm Novembers. Years when they both occurred, the ensuing winter resulted in Above normal snowfall. So bottomline, if we have a warm November this year there's no need to panic.

[Abba701]

So I heard it might get into the 70's next week.Thats not too common in November.Are we talking records?

[amugs]

Someone over at American wx did a case study with moderate and strong Ninos and warm Novembers. Years when they both occurred, the ensuing winter resulted in Above normal snowfall. So bottomline, if we have a warm November this year there's no need to panic.

With this, how about that most El Nino's since 2000 -not a large data base but most have been mostly west/date line forcing? That is something.

[nutleyblizzard]

Someone over at American wx did a case study with moderate and strong Ninos and warm Novembers. Years when they both occurred, the ensuing winter resulted in Above normal snowfall. So bottomline, if we have a warm November this year there's no need to panic.

With this, how about that most El Nino's since 2000 -not a large data base but most have been mostly west/date line forcing? That is something.

To take it one step further, I remember reading up on an article that eastern based Ninos might be becoming a thing of the past due to climate change. Take it with a grain of salt though.

[Math23x7]

It looks like there is a GLC at the end of the 12Z EURO run.

[amugs]

Here some food for thought from a met who dissected the snow growth in Siberia:

Let's put this in perspective, at least for the month of October where the Rutgers Global Snow Lab has monthly statistics, if not for the real SAI time frame, which runs through weeks 40-44, October 7th through November 5th. The current 15.16 million sq km total for October, if it holds, is already ahead of last October's total of 14.140 msk, and would be second only to 1976. It would also result in a higher SAI than last year, especially since by last October 7th we already had some gains south of 60N, while this year there was very little.

In a nutshell - WOW!!!!!!!!!!!

[Frank_Wx]

Here some food for thought from a met who dissected the snow growth in Siberia:

Let's put this in perspective, at least for the month of October where the Rutgers Global Snow Lab has monthly statistics, if not for the real SAI time frame, which runs through weeks 40-44, October 7th through November 5th. The current 15.16 million sq km total for October, if it holds, is already ahead of last October's total of 14.140 msk, and would be second only to 1976. It would also result in a higher SAI than last year, especially since by last October 7th we already had some gains south of 60N, while this year there was very little.

In a nutshell - WOW!!!!!!!!!!!

Yup, it's awesome to see.

[Frank_Wx]

Negative OLR anomalies in the week 2 forecast look like Phase 3/4 of the MJO, which points to warm regime.

[Snow88]

JB thinks the EL Nino is peaking right now and should drop off sooner than later. He likes the mid to late November timeframe for the pattern to change. Joe Cioffi thinks it has peaked. Great signs for winter .

The GFS and GEFS MJO have it going back to 1. Euro has it bending backwards also.

[HectorO]

JB thinks the EL Nino is peaking right now and should drop off sooner than later. He likes the mid to late November timeframe for the pattern to change. Joe Cioffi thinks it has peaked. Great signs for winter .

The GFS and GEFS MJO have it going back to 1. Euro has it bending backwards also.

The tone of thread seems to be, the next two months are gonna be mild and let's wait until January lol.

[HectorO]

For those that live in the city, it looks to be a bit balmy next week mid yo late weekn. Cooler temps looks like it comes back. Next weeken . The lows for those in the suburbs will be cooler. For the city some days can hit 70s with lows at 60.

[sroc4]

I personally am not buying into mild for December at all. Maybe first week. I'm also not sold on extreme warmth that is being depicted for November.  With the exception of the next week to ten days I think we see a trend towards more seasonal temps with more transient periods of above normal. Overall the month will end up above normal, but the second half averages out the first half.

[amugs]

Larry Cosgrove - in line with the back end Nino forecast

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/weatheramerica/uvI2m7ygRy4

[Dtone]

For those that live in the city, it looks to be a bit balmy next week mid yo late weekn. Cooler temps looks like it comes back. Next weeken . The lows for those in the suburbs will be cooler. For the city some days can hit 70s with lows at 60.

I wonder when the first freeze for the city will occur. Nothing is on the horizon.
I have peppers growing, still hanging on.

[amugs]

JB and Cioffi saying nino has peaked or will.peak in next two weeks and models lagging. Ventricle says as well:

https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/660117362373476352/photo/1

[amugs]

We'll well.well a little buckle in the flow hwre mid Nov. Could be something.

[HectorO]

For those that live in the city, it looks to be a bit balmy next week mid yo late weekn. Cooler temps looks like it comes back. Next weeken . The lows for those in the suburbs will be cooler. For the city some days can hit 70s with lows at 60.

I wonder when the first freeze  for the city will occur. Nothing is on the horizon.
I have peppers growing, still hanging on.

What's the lowest the city has gotten to? I think I hit like 29 twice.

[Frank_Wx]

Models are hinting on another coastal system around the 9th. Would be in the form of rain.

[docstox12]

OK, Frank, that's good news.Not only because we need the rain but with the heavy rain a few days ago, this would be a nice break of the dry pattern we have been in.Hope those coastals keep coming when it gets a lot colder!

[skinsfan1177]

OK, Frank, that's good news.Not only because we need the rain but with the heavy rain a few days ago, this would be a nice break of the dry pattern we have been in.Hope those coastals keep coming when it gets a lot colder!

I hope so too

[algae888]

Can anyone tell me if the mjo is headed towards 3 and 4 as the euro was showing or is it heading back towards 1 as the gfs is showing?

[sroc4]

Can anyone tell me if the mjo is headed towards 3 and 4 as the euro was showing or is it heading back towards 1 as the gfs is showing?

Euro has it into 3 before recurving back towards 2 or the COD.  I have been monitoring the trends of the MJO and it has been evolving.  I def do not see how it makes it to phase 4.  I trust the LR MJO forecasts as much as I trust the LR operational model forcasts.  Al here is the link to the forcast site: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

GEFS:


Euro:


Canadian:


Japanese:


UKMET:

[algae888]

Tku scott hopefully it can come out into phase 1 or 8 to start December

[algae888]

It also looks like what RB was saying that the mjo could possibly stay in 7 8 1 and 2 for most of the winter if I read correctly what RB was saying about the mjo

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