Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

[algae888]

Tku scott hopefully it can come out into phase 1 or 8 to start December

[algae888]

It also looks like what RB was saying that the mjo could possibly stay in 7 8 1 and 2 for most of the winter if I read correctly what RB was saying about the mjo

[sroc4]

Tku scott hopefully it can come out into phase 1 or 8 to start December

Al here are two other links to bookmark. It is the CPC's MJO temperature and precipitation composites. Put another way it shows how the temp or precip anomalies that are typically supposed to behave for any given MJO phase. Remember it has been said that certain driver during certain times of year lead to a different outcome during different times of year. For example on the Temp composite page if you look at the top you will notice the area labled "3 month period" look to the right and hover the mouse over ASO (August Sept Oct), SON (Sept Oct Nov), and OND(Oct Nov Dec). You will notice that the MJO in phase 1 during this time frame usually leads to warmer temp anomalies in the east and NE; whereas; as we enter into NDJ, DJF, and JFM the same phase 1 MJO leads to colder anomalies in the East and NE. Of course these are general rules and its the sum of all moving parts; not just the MJO as the only driver to the pattern, but this site gives us a good reference to how the MJO typically behaves relative to the given Phase its in.

Temperature composites:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

Precipitation Composites:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Precipitation/

[Frank_Wx]

Roundy GFS plots show phase 3 forcing

[sroc4]

Roundy GFS plots show phase 3 forcing

What site is that Frank? Roundy GFS Plots?

[Frank_Wx]

Here is Paul Roundys site

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/

He adds to the NCEP algorithms and has his own MJO plots. You can see he studies different things. He's a big stats and current observations type of guy.

[sroc4]

Here is Paul Roundys site

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/

He adds to the NCEP algorithms and has his own MJO plots. You can see he studies different things. He's a big stats and current observations type of guy.

Cool thanks.  In my searching I found this site too.  Also Albany:  Im sure these guys are buddys as Ventrice uses Roundy's graphics
http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html

I find it interesting that Roundy's depiction of the current MJO status is into phase 3 already where as the other individual models all have it still well within phase 2.
 




If you look at current observations you can see the convection still mostly in the phase 2 region but there does seem to be convection coming close to phase 3 as well.  I wonder if the Developing tropical cyclone approaching Saudia Arabia is affecting the MJO forecasts in the models leading to it appearing further west than it actually is; whereas, roundys forecast corrects for this.    
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Notice how the current MJO pulse actually looks like it is influencing both the Northern and southern hemishpheres northen lat upper air patterns.  You can see it enhances a trough all the way up into the Top right of the image via the long atmospheric river of tropical moisture transport. That right there is strongly running the show right now. I think we need that MJO pulse to relax and crash back into the COD to break the enhancement of that trough way of north it in currently linked with before we break our warmer pattern.
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Amazing sat loop. Click here to set the loop in motion.  set animation speed to 0.1sec/image and animation for: last 24hrs then click play:  It takes a minute to load.   http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/index.html?area=6&element=0&mode=UTC

[rb924119]

Ahhh the discussion as to where a particular piece of the atmosphere is located lol some things, such as 500 hPa vorticity are easy to measure; just pull up a water vapor loop and you can tell right where it is. Something like modes of tropical convection, such as Rossby/Kelvin waves and the MJO, have many metrics of measurement. 850 hPa velocity potential, 200 hPa velocity potential, OLR anomalies, surface convergence/divergence, which Eigenfunction you look at (e.g. RMM EOF 1 versus EOF 2). The list seems endless. Depending upon which metric you use, will determine which result you get.

[rb924119]

There was a GREAT resource I used to use to check RMM1; it was Wheeler and Hendon's All-Season Multivariate Index, but for some reason it appears to have been removed. That was great to use :/

[Frank_Wx]

Rb, what do you know about decoupling? I've heard of that term but never understood how it works. For instance, 850mb zonal winds look pretty good over the tropical Pac and would result in forcing in favorable MJO regions. However, look at 200mb velocity potential. Pretty ugly.

[rb924119]

Rb, what do you know about decoupling? I've heard of that term but never understood how it works. For instance, 850mb zonal winds look pretty good over the tropical Pac and would result in forcing in favorable MJO regions. However, look  at 200mb velocity potential. Pretty ugly.

To be honest, I don't know all that much about decoupling. The only times I've ever heard that term be used is when discussing the boundary layer (e.g. from 1000 hPa through approximately 850-700 hPa, or so, depending on where in the world you look) and surface. For example, when you get really good cold, clear nights in the winter, the surface and immediately above it decouple from the rest of the boundary, as there is zero momentum transfer due to the very strong inversion. Essentially you create two "separate", decoupled layers until mixing can erode that inversion and begin transferring momentum again. That said, I don't know how it does or could apply to the tropics; I'd have to look into that.

Secondly, velocity potential is a measure of DI-vergence, so positive values indicate divergence and negative values indicate convergence (the reason for this is due to the mathematics). In the tropics, convection is very simple; in, up and out. "In" at the lower levels, up, then "out" at the upper levels (really the Tropopause). So it makes sense that at 850 hPa you have strong convergence (negative values) while at 200 hPa you have strong divergence (positive values), as this pattern represents the vertical and also horizontal circulations associated with the convection.





So, yeah, I'd agree that based on those maps that forcing attributable to the MJO does look favorably placed  

Unfortunately, there are also other factors at play :/ lol

[sroc4]

Rb, what do you know about decoupling? I've heard of that term but never understood how it works. For instance, 850mb zonal winds look pretty good over the tropical Pac and would result in forcing in favorable MJO regions. However, look  at 200mb velocity potential. Pretty ugly.

To be honest, I don't know all that much about decoupling. The only times I've ever heard that term be used is when discussing the boundary layer (e.g. from 1000 hPa through approximately 850-700 hPa, or so, depending on where in the world you look) and surface. For example, when you get really good cold, clear nights in the winter, the surface and immediately above it decouple from the rest of the boundary, as there is zero momentum transfer due to the very strong inversion. Essentially you create two "separate", decoupled layers until mixing can erode that inversion and begin transferring momentum again. That said, I don't know how it does or could apply to the tropics; I'd have to look into that.

Secondly, velocity potential is a measure of DI-vergence, so positive values indicate divergence and negative values indicate convergence (the reason for this is due to the mathematics). In the tropics, convection is very simple; in, up and out. "In" at the lower levels, up, then "out" at the upper levels (really the Tropopause). So it makes sense that at 850 hPa you have strong convergence (negative values) while at 200 hPa you have strong divergence (positive values), as this pattern represents the vertical and also horizontal circulations associated with the convection.





So, yeah, I'd agree that based on those maps that forcing attributable to the MJO does look favorably placed  

Unfortunately, there are also other factors at play :/ lol

Like what other factors one like myself might ask?

[sroc4]

Ahhh the discussion as to where a particular piece of the atmosphere is located lol some things, such as 500 hPa vorticity are easy to measure; just pull up a water vapor loop and you can tell right where it is. Something like modes of tropical convection, such as Rossby/Kelvin waves and the MJO, have many metrics of measurement. 850 hPa velocity potential, 200 hPa velocity potential, OLR anomalies, surface convergence/divergence, which Eigenfunction you look at (e.g. RMM EOF 1 versus EOF 2). The list seems endless. Depending upon which metric you use, will determine which result you get.

Forget my last question as you answered it here.

[Guest]

I love you maniacs. sroc, Frank, RB, Algae. All awake early morning after midnight discussing tropical forcing and inversions. Holy crap!!! Have a scotch and go to bed. That's hardcore weather lunacy right there.

[rb924119]

Ahhh the discussion as to where a particular piece of the atmosphere is located lol some things, such as 500 hPa vorticity are easy to measure; just pull up a water vapor loop and you can tell right where it is. Something like modes of tropical convection, such as Rossby/Kelvin waves and the MJO, have many metrics of measurement. 850 hPa velocity potential, 200 hPa velocity potential, OLR anomalies, surface convergence/divergence, which Eigenfunction you look at (e.g. RMM EOF 1 versus EOF 2). The list seems endless. Depending upon which metric you use, will determine which result you get.

Forget my last question as you answered it here.

I guess it does; but that was inadvertently unintentional lmao I just ran out of time to respond your question this morning. To answer your question, the other factors that came into my mind were factors such as the AO/NAO/EPO and activity of the tropics with respect to cyclones lol But yes, depending on which site(s) you use to study tropical wave modes, you can filter for certain criteria (such as removing feedback from active tropical cyclones, or other circulations) and this will very likely alter the results; some maybe substantially, while others in a more muted way.

[rb924119]

I love you maniacs.  sroc, Frank, RB, Algae.  All awake early morning after midnight discussing tropical forcing and inversions.   Holy crap!!!  Have a scotch and go to bed.  That's hardcore weather lunacy right there.

And the ONLY reason I was up at that hour was because of work haha I had the midnight to 0830 shift last night, so I figured I'd check in before I left ahaha Otherwise I would have been out colder than the Antarctic in July ahaha Unless there was a snowstorm brewing; then all bets are off and thoughts of pulling all-nighters may or may not enter my head lmfao

[rb924119]

This from JB at WeatherBell:

Have been talking to Paulie the official blog observer and he brought up a great question about the Indian Ocean, and crazily enough, as I continue to find ways to explain why we have the winter we have, I was just playing around with that. Its just another case of how people that love the weather, have just as much talent and drive ( heck maybe more) than people that work in the field. Every now and then I look at forums and blogs, which are in reality the peer review system for the true weather lovers out there, and I am amazed at the talent level of people that love the weather. And I truly think that unless you live in our world, you have no idea of this, which may explain alot of the arrogance in academia or government in some matters. If they lived in this world, it would be a different world for alot, though not all, of them.
The strong phase 2 we are in now, is liable to repeat itself during the winter ( mainly 1/2) In the heart of winter, a strong phase 1/2 is a cold signal for the US



While we obviously dont expect it to be THIS COLD



, there are physical reasons for why we look for the MJO to be in favorable phases for the weatherbell.com idea Look at the water in the Indian ocean and the eastern Atlantic, its warmer than the last strong nino



So how does a snow loving optimist see all this. 1) Indian ocean favors more phase 1/2. 2) the warmer water further west in the PACIFIC near the equator and colder water to its north means the models with the further west upper trough idea there are correct. 3) The warm water off the east coast means, like last year, that as winter matures, the foe becomes friend for moisture laden storms with air cold enough for snow. 4) The place where it would be colder at the US latitudes would naturally, at the coldest time of the year in the mid and upper levels, be between where input regions are warm. Off the west coast, and off the east coast.
A pessimist. Its 1997 again, fuggeddabout it
I am an optimist

[rb924119]

JB:

CFSV2 though still in its own world for the winter against most modeling and are ideas, is seeing it our way with the Enso SST the current difference between Enso 3.4 and 1.2 is about .2c but expands to over 1C during winter





The recent runs show a very sharp drop off, which will further expand the difference between this and the dreaded 1997 enso event

[sroc4]

I love you maniacs.  sroc, Frank, RB, Algae.  All awake early morning after midnight discussing tropical forcing and inversions.   Holy crap!!!  Have a scotch and go to bed.  That's hardcore weather lunacy right there.

Lol. For the record Syo I drank a fair share of adult frosty beverages last night and so I was up because well let's just say nature called. Lol. As I was sipping a large glass of water and medicating with 3 Advil to tame the headache I happen to check out my favorite weather board and found some interesting discussion. Yeah I'm a weather geek and proud of it.

[algae888]

Models are hinting on another coastal system around the 9th. Would be in the form of rain.

and here it is on today's 12z gfs..



I will take this set up all winter. maybe a little snow n/w suburbs?

[amugs]

Guys,

JB post is a definite reassurance of what is to come this winter and Rb thanks for posting. I have been researching the aspect of the IO (Indian Ocean) in NINO's and how it plays a major role in where the trop forcing sets up. BTW, Paulie he is referrring to is his buddy who is on the USA -WX forum and someone who I have pm's with and asked him this as well ( what role the IO has to play Nino?). It has been theorized that if you have warm waters in the IO with a basin wide Nino the forcing usually stays in the 8,1,2 phase and doesn't allow it to escape and go around the horn per say. How does this happen, pretty technical but in a nutshell the warm waters and air form a block so to speak and I think Rb explained this in his dissertation paper he posted on this site. Again this is a theory that scientist and weather enthusiasts are investigating. Reading the posts above can make one head spin for all the tech jargon and as Rb stated that you can use 5 different maps to look at things - 200hp, 500hp, OLRs, yada yada yada but here is the fact - 1.2 cooling and 3.4 and 4 warming. The IO is in our favor and tomorrow we find out from our fearless leader what we have in store this winter - positive juju here peeps.

Look at the charts - see ya and hate to be ya 1.2 - get oudda here !!


3 - going down as well with 1.2 - bye bye


3.4


4


Remember this - the water depth of the nino waters are deeper in these last two regions so it will take lounger to cool.

[Frank_Wx]

Finally....FINALLY finished the winter outlook. Holy crap I thought this day would never come considering I started it October 1st.

[Dunnzoo]

Finally....FINALLY finished the winter outlook. Holy crap I thought this day would never come considering I started it October 1st.

and you are going to make us wait until tomorrow?????

[Frank_Wx]

Finally....FINALLY finished the winter outlook. Holy crap I thought this day would never come considering I started it October 1st.

and you are going to make us wait until tomorrow?????  

Yes. Yes I am cause I feel like it!

[docstox12]

"The Great and Powerful Oz has spoken!!!!!!!"

[skinsfan1177]

Looking forward to reading it I'm sure it will be great.

[devsman]

Finally....FINALLY finished the winter outlook. Holy crap I thought this day would never come considering I started it October 1st.

and you are going to make us wait until tomorrow?????  

Yes. Yes I am cause I feel like it!

Just answer this, Will we be happy or sad?

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