Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

[Frank_Wx]

Starting to look better by Turkey Day

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

I do not trust those charts. But it does look like there may be slightly more ridging in the northeast Pacific.

[amugs]

Winter Outlook - very and I mean very thorough write up - for SNE but noneltheless makes great points that has been the theme by many so far this winter - two halves - second half we surge and kick some arse!!

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/

[amugs]

JMAN or Hurricane Man for you next summer - HAHAHA!!

[skinsfan1177]

Winter Outlook - very and I mean very thorough write up - for SNE but noneltheless makes great points that has been the theme by many so far this winter - two halves - second half we surge and kick some arse!!

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/

In depth for sure great read I pretty much read what he thinks for us seems to be on track with what we discuss here

[amugs]

Winter Outlook - very and I mean very thorough write up - for SNE but noneltheless makes great points that has been the theme by many so far this winter - two halves - second half we surge and kick some arse!!

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/

In depth for sure great read I pretty much read what he thinks for us seems to be on track with what we discuss here

Yes and very good signs - he is a bright and respected weather enthusiast. Lots of great information and when he is wrong he is the first to admit it. Got to love that!

[amugs]

This is a nice look -

[algae888]

Well if the Euro 10 day ensemble mean is correct then the EPO is definitely going to become negative which should allow colder air to come into the US. How far east does it get will depend on the La Nina type ridge over the southeast. If that ridge breaks down or moves east then we can expect colder than normal temperatures around Thanksgiving

[amugs]

This is the putrid pattern before what Al and Tony posted about the epo going negative - BITE ME!! We'll be breaking out the shorts with this one - record breaking second Indian Summer incoming!

[algae888]

If anyone wants to see snow they should head out to the Central Plains next week as there will be up to 3 snow events for them. Places as far south as the Texas Panhandle will see snow. The last system could bring snow as far east as the eastern Great Lakes but as I posted above the cold air is going to have a hard time getting anywhere close to us until around Thanksgiving.

[chief7]

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Long-Range-Winter-Forecast-Glenn-Hurricane-Schwartz-2015-346882392.html?_osource=SocialFlowFB_PHBrand

[sroc4]

Winter Outlook - very and I mean very thorough write up - for SNE but noneltheless makes great points that has been the theme by many so far this winter - two halves - second half we surge and kick some arse!!

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/

My favorite quote in the entire write up..."The atmosphere is nothing but a sea of chaos that mankind is only now beginning to try to, kind of, sort of retain some semblance of an inkling as to how it operates. Please wrap your mind around that fact before ogling any winter outlook." Its a good mantra

[nutleyblizzard]

Winter Outlook - very and I mean very thorough write up - for SNE but noneltheless makes great points that has been the theme by many so far this winter - two halves - second half we surge and kick some arse!!

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/

In depth for sure great read I pretty much read what he thinks for us seems to be on track with what we discuss here

Very good read although I think his forecast for NY and Philly snow totals of 30-40'' are too low. If you go by the summer to winter AO/NAO couplet, I believe they will tank come the new year. With a strong sub tropical jet already in place... well you get the idea.I would increase snow totals upward 50%.

[amugs]

Winter Outlook - very and I mean very thorough write up - for SNE but noneltheless makes great points that has been the theme by many so far this winter - two halves - second half we surge and kick some arse!!

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/

In depth for sure great read I pretty much read what he thinks for us seems to be on track with what we discuss here

Very good read although I think his forecast for NY and Philly snow totals of 30-40'' are too low. If you go by the summer to winter AO/NAO couplet, I believe they will tank come the new year. With a strong sub tropical jet already in place... well you get the idea.I would increase snow totals upward 50%.

.
Could happen from a godzilla or two!!

[skinsfan1177]

The way it sounds of winter starts late with snow we may just get like two weeks of unbievable snow I'll take it lol

[amugs]

The way it sounds of winter starts late with snow we may just get like two weeks of unbelievable snow I'll take it lol

Not a late start - mid January or before if things start to happen which some models are trying to show but nothing exciting. Could be from mid Jan to Mid March as the AO and NAO are forecasted in the LR to be in a favorable indicy.
IF we go to the end of Jan with nothing happening (snow,cold, poor positioning of indicies) then it would be considered somewhat of a late start.

[Quietace]

Winter Outlook - very and I mean very thorough write up - for SNE but noneltheless makes great points that has been the theme by many so far this winter - two halves - second half we surge and kick some arse!!

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/

In depth for sure great read I pretty much read what he thinks for us seems to be on track with what we discuss here

Very good read although I think his forecast for NY and Philly snow totals of 30-40'' are too low. If you go by the summer to winter AO/NAO couplet, I believe they will tank come the new year. With a strong sub tropical jet already in place... well you get the idea.I would increase snow totals upward 50%.

.
Could happen  from a godzilla or two!!

Or the STJ is so strong that most people outside high elevations are running between 33-40*F with R+

[sroc4]

Winter Outlook - very and I mean very thorough write up - for SNE but noneltheless makes great points that has been the theme by many so far this winter - two halves - second half we surge and kick some arse!!

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/

In depth for sure great read I pretty much read what he thinks for us seems to be on track with what we discuss here

Very good read although I think his forecast for NY and Philly snow totals of 30-40'' are too low. If you go by the summer to winter AO/NAO couplet, I believe they will tank come the new year. With a strong sub tropical jet already in place... well you get the idea.I would increase snow totals upward 50%.

.
Could happen  from a godzilla or two!!

Or the STJ is so strong that most people outside high elevations are running between 33-40*F with R+

Umm Ryan regarding that R comment.......

[amugs]

3.4 showed as peaking amd then cooling by Feb

[Frank_Wx]

The long range looks horrific, but it was to be expected homestly. It just sucks that the boring weather pattern from the summer is carrying over into Met Fall. Check out the EURO weeklies.

Next week - temps possibly back in the 70s.



Week 3 (Thanksgiving)



And while week 4 isn't ideal...it's starting to look a little more Nino to me

[amugs]

Look at this one t - giving week euro ensemble ripped off twitter wsi site

[Frank_Wx]

Look at this one t - giving week euro ensemble ripped off twitter wsi site

If true, this is good news because the Alaskan Vortex would be displaced. However, verbatim our sensible weather would still be on the warm side. Too much energy is digging into the western U.S. leading to -PNA. Check out the weeklies I posted. They too show a ridge in the northeast Pac, but they do a better job showing the higher heights over the east.

It's progress though. This pattern won't change instantly. It's step down.

[Snow88]

Hurricane Schwartz is going with a really warm December and January with Winter really kicking into gear in February. He has 30-38 inches of snow for the winter for Philly.

http://mobile.philly.com/news/?wss=/philly/news&id=347073842&

[Frank_Wx]

Hurricane Schwartz is going with a really warm December and January with Winter really kicking into gear in February. He has 30-38 inches of snow for the winter for Philly.

http://mobile.philly.com/news/?wss=/philly/news&id=347073842&

+6 in January? I'm not seeing that whatsoever.

[amugs]

Frank absoluetlybit would be a good improvement from its really putrid paternity we are in. I saw the weeklies and th eery look horrible. The ens mean I posted I would think is better from a forecast standpoint but who knows. Heck the -pna is and will change but we know the step down process heading into winter.

Schwartz is on Crack +6. Now way if the euro and Jamstec are right maybe +1 fir the month.

[Snow88]

The overnight models were an improvement moving forward but it looks like the pattern would be transient.

[Quietace]

Winter Outlook - very and I mean very thorough write up - for SNE but noneltheless makes great points that has been the theme by many so far this winter - two halves - second half we surge and kick some arse!!

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/

In depth for sure great read I pretty much read what he thinks for us seems to be on track with what we discuss here

Very good read although I think his forecast for NY and Philly snow totals of 30-40'' are too low. If you go by the summer to winter AO/NAO couplet, I believe they will tank come the new year. With a strong sub tropical jet already in place... well you get the idea.I would increase snow totals upward 50%.

.
Could happen  from a godzilla or two!!

Or the STJ is so strong that most people outside high elevations are running between 33-40*F with R+

Umm Ryan regarding that R comment.......

Scott its only the truth. But it seems....

[sroc4]

[Sponsored content]