Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 10, 2015 8:48 am

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 20 Octobe10

Madonne, very impressive amplification in our pattern late next week shown on guidance. The Pacific or Aleutian trough really helps to pump up the western ridge. A remnant ULL helps to separate the STJ with the PJ which further helps to bring positive heights as far north Alaska and the western province of Canada.

On the east, several shots of upper level energy track into our area to keep reinforcing the cold air. We have to watch for one of these vorts, because they could dig into the trough and develop a coastal storm. That could bring us our first snow flurries or showers of the season. Obviously those inland and into New England have a better shot at this than we do.

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 10, 2015 9:01 am

The Euro is showing a storm around the 17th, and if anyone wants to see the first significant snow map (its all upstate and VT) let me know : ) Just for kicks though.

by **rb924119** Sat Oct 10, 2015 9:20 am

The only thing we are missing in that map Frank is a truly negative NAO. If my memory serves me correctly, I think the AO is negative, though during this same period?

by **Snow88** Sat Oct 10, 2015 9:21 am

Snowstorm for NNE at 192 hours on the Euro?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 10, 2015 9:25 am

rb924119 wrote:The only thing we are missing in that map Frank is a truly negative NAO. If my memory serves me correctly, I think the AO is negative, though during this same period?

Yes, but it's closer to neutral than it is -1. The cold air is not overly impressive despite the low heights. PV is still in the Arctic.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 10, 2015 9:26 am

Snow88 wrote:Snowstorm for NNE at 192 hours on the Euro?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

This is what Jman is talking about. It's very possible for them.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Oct 10, 2015 9:29 am

Frank_Wx wrote:

Madonne, very impressive amplification in our pattern late next week shown on guidance. The Pacific or Aleutian trough really helps to pump up the western ridge. A remnant ULL helps to separate the STJ with the PJ which further helps to bring positive heights as far north Alaska and the western province of Canada.

On the east, several shots of upper level energy track into our area to keep reinforcing the cold air. We have to watch for one of these vorts, because they could dig into the trough and develop a coastal storm. That could bring us our first snow flurries or showers of the season. Obviously those inland and into New England have a better shot at this than we do.

Frank let's hope this is a harbinger of things to come. While in the fall you will see changing weather patterns partly due to the shortening of wavelengths, you will often see a dominate weather pattern regime start to take hold. Presently I like how the Pacific anomalies are setting up. The Atlantic is the wildcard player yet there are signs it will cooperate as well. Things should be much clearer by early November to see what winter has in store for us, but I'm optimistic.

by **rb924119** Sat Oct 10, 2015 9:43 am

No, but it is only mid-October, and there isn't much in the way of snowpack in eastern Canada so it can moderate before getting here. That said, I think the snowpack in that region is going to blossom over the next one to two weeks, which will only help us in the long run. I'm totally ok with moderation now, as long as it works toward setting us up for the goods this winter.

by **Snow88** Sat Oct 10, 2015 9:48 am

by **amugs** Sat Oct 10, 2015 9:55 am

jmanley32 wrote:The Euro is showing a storm around the 17th, and if anyone wants to see the first significant snow map (its all upstate and VT) let me know : ) Just for kicks though.

Put it in Banter JMAN

by **amugs** Sat Oct 10, 2015 5:40 pm

Check out 1997 in comparison to today's El Nino - major differences - 1.2 and 3 are ridiculously warmer and look at the beautiful pool of warm/hot water in the GOA!!

Today - come to poppa Laughing

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 20 Post-564-0-35880300-1444480638

1997 - wonder why we torched that winter??? Sad

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 20 Post-564-0-86359200-1444480656

by **amugs** Sat Oct 10, 2015 5:49 pm

Siberia SNOW COVER - BOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 20 Post-9415-0-72187400-1444504890

CANADA

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 20 Cursnow_alaska

Monday Oct 5th

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 20 Ims2015278_alaska

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Oct 10, 2015 5:49 pm

amugs wrote:Check out 1997 in comparison to today's El Nino - major differences - 1.2 and 3 are ridiculously warmer and look at the beautiful pool of warm/hot water in the GOA!!

Today - come to poppa

Look like they took the idea of a strong el nino and "spread the wealth" instead of all the heat built up in one area.

1997 - wonder why we torched that winter???

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Oct 10, 2015 5:50 pm

Why did it post like that, my commet in between two pics and the 1997.

by **amugs** Sat Oct 10, 2015 5:51 pm

Also there are major deep ULL over that area for the next 10 days so we should see the snow growth increase by A LOT!!!!!

by **amugs** Sat Oct 10, 2015 5:52 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Why did it post like that, my commet in between two pics and the 1997.

HMMM??

Basin wide event my man and no worries thanks for commenting.

by **amugs** Sat Oct 10, 2015 5:53 pm

Rutgers says HI - catching up

2015
Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 20 2015282

2014

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 10, 2015 7:03 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Why did it post like that, my commet in between two pics and the 1997.

When you quote someone, make sure you type your reply below their entire post.

by **algae888** Sat Oct 10, 2015 7:26 pm

amugs wrote:Rutgers says HI - catching up

2015

2014

Mugs even though we are behind last year in coverage this year may have a better effect on the AO as most of this years snow growth will occur in mid to late october. Last years snow growth was sept and early october then she leveled off. Most mets believe its the october smow growth that has the most impact on the AO. Anyway thats what i have been hearing from several different mets.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 10, 2015 8:28 pm

algae888 wrote:
amugs wrote:Rutgers says HI - catching up

2015

2014
Mugs even though we are behind last year in coverage this year may have a better effect on the AO as most of this years snow growth will occur in mid to late october. Last years snow growth was sept and early october then she leveled off. Most mets believe its the october smow growth that has the most impact on the AO. Anyway thats what i have been hearing from several different mets.

Al, you're correct.

by **amugs** Sat Oct 10, 2015 10:00 pm

Yes we has record snow growth in that time frame and then lost 700k of snow and ice heading in late Nov. So with that being said most Mets are all on board and you will see Siberia and the like go KABOOM in the next couple of weeks in this dept as I showed with the map I posted above. Updates will be forthcoming.

by **amugs** Mon Oct 12, 2015 9:06 am

Here is a great link to see the snow growth in the arctic region. Change the dates and hit play and watch Rocky my chia pet grow!!

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/nh/20151002-20151010

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 12, 2015 9:10 am

Despite the positive heights in the west, namely Alaska into western province of Canada, the NAO shift from east-based to positive by the 3rd week of October. This could make the cold spell we see beginning Tuesday night be short-lived (until next Monday)

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 20 Test8

by **amugs** Mon Oct 12, 2015 10:53 am

Cold temps for the weekend

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 20 Gfs_T2m_neus_25

by **amugs** Mon Oct 12, 2015 12:03 pm

This from Isotherm on El Nino

Tropical convective forcing has generally congregated around 160-180W over the past week [continued conducive forcing overall].

Date Line baby - woop woop. This is where the forcing looks to be/will set up - great news.

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 20 161zvav

Evolution the past week
Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 20 Jj2omb

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Oct 12, 2015 1:14 pm

amugs wrote:This from Isotherm on El Nino

Tropical convective forcing has generally congregated around 160-180W over the past week [continued conducive forcing overall].

Date Line baby - woop woop. This is where the forcing looks to be/will set up - great news.

Evolution the past week

Although I'm willing to wait and see where we stand in a month as far as anomaly placements are concerned, I'm beginning to grow increasingly confident that we will see an above normal snowfall season if not historic. I wonder what Frank's thoughts are. Guess we will wait till November 1st.

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Oct 12, 2015 9:28 pm

Hearing models GFS and Euro both have backed off the blocking.

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