Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

[Frank_Wx]

Madonne, very impressive amplification in our pattern late next week shown on guidance. The Pacific or Aleutian trough really helps to pump up the western ridge. A remnant ULL helps to separate the STJ with the PJ which further helps to bring positive heights as far north Alaska and the western province of Canada.

On the east, several shots of upper level energy track into our area to keep reinforcing the cold air. We have to watch for one of these vorts, because they could dig into the trough and develop a coastal storm. That could bring us our first snow flurries or showers of the season. Obviously those inland and into New England have a better shot at this than we do.

[jmanley32]

The Euro is showing a storm around the 17th, and if anyone wants to see the first significant snow map (its all upstate and VT) let me know : ) Just for kicks though.

[rb924119]

The only thing we are missing in that map Frank is a truly negative NAO. If my memory serves me correctly, I think the AO is negative, though during this same period?

[Snow88]

Snowstorm for NNE at 192 hours on the Euro?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[Frank_Wx]

The only thing we are missing in that map Frank is a truly negative NAO. If my memory serves me correctly, I think the AO is negative, though during this same period?

Yes, but it's closer to neutral than it is -1. The cold air is not overly impressive despite the low heights. PV is still in the Arctic.

[Frank_Wx]

Snowstorm for NNE at 192 hours on the Euro?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

This is what Jman is talking about. It's very possible for them.

[nutleyblizzard]

Madonne, very impressive amplification in our pattern late next week shown on guidance. The Pacific or Aleutian trough really helps to pump up the western ridge. A remnant ULL helps to separate the STJ with the PJ which further helps to bring positive heights as far north Alaska and the western province of Canada.

On the east, several shots of upper level energy track into our area to keep reinforcing the cold air. We have to watch for one of these vorts, because they could dig into the trough and develop a coastal storm. That could bring us our first snow flurries or showers of the season. Obviously those inland and into New England have a better shot at this than we do.

Frank let's hope this is a harbinger of things to come. While in the fall you will see changing weather patterns partly due to the shortening of wavelengths, you will often see a dominate weather pattern regime start to take hold. Presently I like how the Pacific anomalies are setting up. The Atlantic is the wildcard player yet there are signs it will cooperate as well. Things should be much clearer by early November to see what winter has in store for us, but I'm optimistic.

[rb924119]

No, but it is only mid-October, and there isn't much in the way of snowpack in eastern Canada so it can moderate before getting here. That said, I think the snowpack in that region is going to blossom over the next one to two weeks, which will only help us in the long run. I'm totally ok with moderation now, as long as it works toward setting us up for the goods this winter.

[Snow88]

[amugs]

The Euro is showing a storm around the 17th, and if anyone wants to see the first significant snow map (its all upstate and VT) let me know : )  Just for kicks though.

Put it in Banter JMAN

[amugs]

Check out 1997 in comparison to today's El Nino - major differences - 1.2 and 3 are ridiculously warmer and look at the beautiful pool of warm/hot water in the GOA!!

Today - come to poppa  



1997 - wonder why we torched that winter???

[amugs]

Siberia SNOW COVER - BOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



CANADA


Monday Oct 5th

[NjWeatherGuy]

Check out 1997 in comparison to today's El Nino - major differences - 1.2 and 3 are ridiculously warmer and look at the beautiful pool of warm/hot water in the GOA!!

Today - come to poppa  


Look like they took the idea of a strong el nino and "spread the wealth" instead of all the heat built up in one area.

1997 - wonder why we torched that winter???

[NjWeatherGuy]

Why did it post like that, my commet in between two pics and the 1997.

[amugs]

Also there are major deep ULL over that area for the next 10 days so we should see the snow growth increase by A LOT!!!!!

[amugs]

Why did it post like that, my commet in between two pics and the 1997.

HMMM??

Basin wide event my man and no worries thanks for commenting.

[amugs]

Rutgers says HI - catching up

2015



2014

[Frank_Wx]

Why did it post like that, my commet in between two pics and the 1997.

When you quote someone, make sure you type your reply below their entire post.

[algae888]

Rutgers says HI - catching up

2015



2014

Mugs even though we are behind last year in coverage this year may have a better effect on the AO as most of this years snow growth will occur in mid to late october. Last years snow growth was sept and early october then she leveled off. Most mets believe its the october smow growth that has the most impact on the AO. Anyway thats what i have been hearing from several different mets.

[Frank_Wx]

Rutgers says HI - catching up

2015



2014

Mugs even though we are behind last year in coverage this year may have a better effect on the AO as most of this years snow growth will occur in mid to late october. Last years snow growth was sept and early october then she leveled off.  Most mets believe its the october smow growth that has the most impact on the AO. Anyway thats what i have been hearing from several different mets.

Al, you're correct.

[amugs]

Yes we has record snow growth in that time frame and then lost 700k of snow and ice heading in late Nov. So with that being said most Mets are all on board and you will see Siberia and the like go KABOOM in the next couple of weeks in this dept as I showed with the map I posted above. Updates will be forthcoming.

[amugs]

Here is a great link to see the snow growth in the arctic region. Change the dates and hit play and watch Rocky my chia pet grow!!

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/nh/20151002-20151010

[Frank_Wx]

Despite the positive heights in the west, namely Alaska into western province of Canada, the NAO shift from east-based to positive by the 3rd week of October. This could make the cold spell we see beginning Tuesday night be short-lived (until next Monday)

[amugs]

Cold temps for the weekend

[amugs]

This from Isotherm on El Nino

Tropical convective forcing has generally congregated around 160-180W over the past week [continued conducive forcing overall].

Date Line baby - woop woop. This is where the forcing looks to be/will set up - great news.



Evolution the past week

[nutleyblizzard]

This from Isotherm on El Nino

Tropical convective forcing has generally congregated around 160-180W over the past week [continued conducive forcing overall].

Date Line baby - woop woop. This is where the forcing looks to be/will set up - great news.



Evolution the past week

Although I'm willing to wait and see where we stand in a month as far as anomaly placements are concerned, I'm beginning to grow increasingly confident that we will see an above normal snowfall season if not historic. I wonder what Frank's thoughts are. Guess we will wait till November 1st.

[skinsfan1177]

Hearing models GFS and Euro both have backed off the blocking.

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