01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible

A series of updates will be released over the next few days. You can expect them between 8-9pm every night. Give the blog a read and if you have any questions please ask. Keep in mind I will not answer questions on timing and snow amounts. You will notice in the blog I do not even post snow maps from models. These type of specifics will not be known until Wednesday morning (if there is even still a storm to track by then).

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2016/01/watching-january-22nd-23rd-potential.html

For this situation and flow, we want the 500mb and surface low to close off right off the Jersey Coast (well inside the BM) and bomb out and stall, similar to what the CMC/EURO showed and what happened in '96.

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-500MillibarMaps.html

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-SeaLevelPressure.html

NjWeatherGuy wrote:For this situation and flow, we want the 500mb and surface low to close off right off the Jersey Coast (well inside the BM) and bomb out and stall, similar to what the CMC/EURO showed and what happened in '96.

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-500MillibarMaps.html

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-SeaLevelPressure.html

That western ridge in 96' looked much better than what we're dealing with. This is a fluid setup.

Suppression is the biggest threat here from what I see on the ensembles, with that banana high no chance of cutting up the lakes or apps.

Doesn't look too bad here, too many energies in the Pac though that low coming into the NW may moderate the ridge.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=QQ500&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=QQ500&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=132

Nice and exciting update Frank - Best one so far.

All the models have a storm and even the GFS shows a moderate to significant event even though it is the most south and east. The Euro, Euro para, cmc, and their ensembles show a beast. We are only 5 days away and I'm trusting the Euro on this one. It has proven time and time again to be the superior model, locking on to complex dynamics faster than the GFS and then the GFS plays catch up and comes around 48 hours before the event. I know all solutions are still on the table but I'm willing to bet this is going to be a HECS.

Thanks Frank. Really appericate your work. The explanation was so thorough and for me was easier to understand. Excited about the upcoming week

00z gfs will initialize soon.

biggest difference so far is lead vort is weaker

Frank excellent analysis and thanks for taking the time to do this.

So is this bad news? Basically same?

jake732 wrote:So is this bad news? Basically same?

It is fine it is looking very good like teh 12 z run so far.

Dug in deep in the South - 500mb looks great - need a full phase at the base - could be.......

at 111, 114 she looks great - another beast of a run on 0z here tonight HUGE SLUG of moisture from STJ

going to be another hit

GET READY BOYS AND GIRLS CAUSE WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A ...........




RIODZILLAAAAAA???????

this is going to be massive

Frank_Wx wrote:going to be another hit

Is the low closed Frank? That would be key for a closer to the coast scenario.

FRANK she looks marvelous 700, 500mb holy smokes



INCOMING TAKE COVERRRRRR

NUTS CLOSED OVER TN - WOOO HOOO

WHAT DO YUO THINK NOW?????

DA CRUSHERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

i have no words