Re: 01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:43 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
chief7 wrote:Hey RB the Jma the low looks a little bit more East than the last run

I honestly can't comment on that, BUT that's not what I'm concerned with. All we are looking for at this time, and honestly, through Wednesday's 12z runs, is going to be consistency. Is the storm there? Is it being shown to close off somewhere in the Ohio or Tennessee River Valley? Does it have room to come north? How does the ridge look; is it still amplified? These are questions we have to focus on for the next 48 hours. Details such as how much snow, exact placement of the circulations, where banding sets up, duration, strength, and anything like that can't be worried about yet. We are going to see slight run to run wobbles with this; it's typical. The energy that will be responsible for this is still about 2000 miles away from any sampling, so the models are still "flying blind" with how to handle it at this point. The energy will come on shore Tuesday night, and that's when we can start to talk specifics, because the models will be able to have actual samples of the energy to work with.

This whole "sampling" thing has always confused me a bit. If models are flying blind, is it at all possible they can even show the SAME sort of solutions on Wed that they're showing now?

Sorry for the confusion, Soul. Yes, it is. What's a good analogy for this?....

Oh ok, got one!! Think of all of the landmasses, continents, with all of their balloon launching (sounding) stations (which is how we get the data for the models, and some countries like the US have more than others) as sections of a giant puzzle, with each puzzle piece represented by each sounding station. While we don't really know much with the oceans, we can kind of get an idea of how the completed puzzle will look because we know the general configuration of all of the pieces of the continents. So, think of it as a patchwork. If we know what sections of the puzzle look like, then we can kind of get an idea of how the finished product will look by using our imagination and "connecting the dots" so to speak. Same thing with the models. They know how the atmosphere is responding over the continents, so they "use that as a basis or template", and extrapolate out from there. Does make more sense?

by track17 Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:44 pm

Look at the models all have us in rain look at the totals like 3 inches and twc app saying so

by **jake732** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:45 pm

Toms river I think is in a pretty good position here. I don't like a little rain past but mainly a big event snow

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:45 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
chief7 wrote:Hey RB the Jma the low looks a little bit more East than the last run

I honestly can't comment on that, BUT that's not what I'm concerned with. All we are looking for at this time, and honestly, through Wednesday's 12z runs, is going to be consistency. Is the storm there? Is it being shown to close off somewhere in the Ohio or Tennessee River Valley? Does it have room to come north? How does the ridge look; is it still amplified? These are questions we have to focus on for the next 48 hours. Details such as how much snow, exact placement of the circulations, where banding sets up, duration, strength, and anything like that can't be worried about yet. We are going to see slight run to run wobbles with this; it's typical. The energy that will be responsible for this is still about 2000 miles away from any sampling, so the models are still "flying blind" with how to handle it at this point. The energy will come on shore Tuesday night, and that's when we can start to talk specifics, because the models will be able to have actual samples of the energy to work with.

As far as I know its pretty much right off the west coast now isnt it? Not quite 2000 miles away from sampling thats quite a distance. And as far as I know has been GOES sampled as of yesterday improving of less data over western Pac region.

Meant 1000 lol the leading edge of the energy is actually still south of the Aleutian Islands.

by **amugs** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:45 pm

EURO UP NEXT IF IT SHOWS CONSISTENCY........................................ Cool

by **jake732** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:45 pm

Oh I'm sorry I was looking a bit more north towards Lakewood

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:47 pm

track17 wrote:Look at the models all have us in rain look at the totals like 3 inches and twc app saying so

Don't worry about specifics yet. The energy is thousands of miles away from us, so a 50 mile jog east is like spitting in the ocean at this point, and that's all it will take to take you from 3" to close to 30" lol

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:48 pm

THE KING IS RUNNING......DUH DUH DUH DUHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!

by **Quietace** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:48 pm

rb924119 wrote:
track17 wrote:Look at the models all have us in rain look at the totals like 3 inches and twc app saying so

Don't worry about specifics yet. The energy is thousands of miles away from us, so a 50 mile jog east is like spitting in the ocean at this point, and that's all it will take to take you from 3" to close to 30" lol

Agreed, Once the Energy is onshore tomorrow we can really get detailed. Start time on the EC seems to be Friday Morning-ish in the MA(DC area)

by **amugs** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:51 pm

Soundings GFS showing 2-4" snowfall rates at the height of storm 3-4 hour period min - with eat your heart out Cantore - thunder snow!!!

by track17 Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:51 pm

Yea Jake that is what I was saying toms river is looking at like 3 inches maybe 4 if lucky

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:51 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Keep in mind this is THE 12z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN:

Not buying this map for coastal plain

Im with you 100%. Coastal plain is in the QPF bulls eye. Im not worried at all at this pouint Skins.

I was going to say the same thing sroc. i just can't see how a storm in that position with us just north of the closed upper level low and a high pressure with 2"+ qpf. doesn't give us 2' +!!

The one thing I will point out is if the final track is inside the BM there will be a period of easterly fetch off the warmer waters that could mean a few hrs of sleet or rain for the coast until the LP center makes it to the BM when the winds shift back out of the N/NE. There is no doubt it will transition back to very heavy snow in this scenario with the current set up

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:53 pm

rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
chief7 wrote:Hey RB the Jma the low looks a little bit more East than the last run

I honestly can't comment on that, BUT that's not what I'm concerned with. All we are looking for at this time, and honestly, through Wednesday's 12z runs, is going to be consistency. Is the storm there? Is it being shown to close off somewhere in the Ohio or Tennessee River Valley? Does it have room to come north? How does the ridge look; is it still amplified? These are questions we have to focus on for the next 48 hours. Details such as how much snow, exact placement of the circulations, where banding sets up, duration, strength, and anything like that can't be worried about yet. We are going to see slight run to run wobbles with this; it's typical. The energy that will be responsible for this is still about 2000 miles away from any sampling, so the models are still "flying blind" with how to handle it at this point. The energy will come on shore Tuesday night, and that's when we can start to talk specifics, because the models will be able to have actual samples of the energy to work with.

This whole "sampling" thing has always confused me a bit. If models are flying blind, is it at all possible they can even show the SAME sort of solutions on Wed that they're showing now?

Sorry for the confusion, Soul. Yes, it is. What's a good analogy for this?....

Oh ok, got one!! Think of all of the landmasses, continents, with all of their balloon launching (sounding) stations (which is how we get the data for the models, and some countries like the US have more than others) as sections of a giant puzzle, with each puzzle piece represented by each sounding station. While we don't really know much with the oceans, we can kind of get an idea of how the completed puzzle will look because we know the general configuration of all of the pieces of the continents. So, think of it as a patchwork. If we know what sections of the puzzle look like, then we can kind of get an idea of how the finished product will look by using our imagination and "connecting the dots" so to speak. Same thing with the models. They know how the atmosphere is responding over the continents, so they "use that as a basis or template", and extrapolate out from there. Does make more sense?

Hah! It's actually a GREAT analogy! Makes a lot more sense now, honestly. Thanks RB! :-D

by Guest Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:55 pm

sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Keep in mind this is THE 12z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN:

Not buying this map for coastal plain

Im with you 100%. Coastal plain is in the QPF bulls eye. Im not worried at all at this pouint Skins.

I was going to say the same thing sroc. i just can't see how a storm in that position with us just north of the closed upper level low and a high pressure with 2"+ qpf. doesn't give us 2' +!!

The one thing I will point out is if the final track is inside the BM there will be a period of easterly fetch off the warmer waters that could mean a few hrs of sleet or rain for the coast until the LP center makes it to the BM when the winds shift back out of the N/NE. There is no doubt it will transition back to very heavy snow in this scenario with the current set up

.....I just wanted to see if i could get you to post being that it's not Tuesday night yet!! tongue

by track17 Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:56 pm

This storm is just another disappointment for the cost 3 inches ugh what a let down but happy for everyone else

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:57 pm

James

by **Quietace** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:58 pm

track17 wrote:This storm is just another disappointment for the cost 3 inches ugh what a let down but happy for everyone else

You really need to relax. Take a step back and watch the process evolve. Okay. Thanks

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:59 pm

12z EURO:

Maybe prematurely saying this but I already like 12z better than 00z. PAC energy is stronger and ridge is amplifying more. Hour 50

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:01 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:12z EURO:

Maybe prematurely saying this but I already like 12z better than 00z. PAC energy is stronger and ridge is amplifying more. Hour 50

Spoiler alert Evil or Very Mad

lmfao I'm only to 42 Brick

by track17 Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:02 pm

Easy for people to say relax when they are getting hit hard you would be saying the same if you were in the 3 inch zone like me but I will step back

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:03 pm

Hour 54 the EURO looks fantastic compared to 00z run. Energy is stronger, ridge amp'd, even heights ahead are already rising.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:04 pm

"track17" please keep this type of discussion in the banter thread

i.e. complaining.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:04 pm

H5 closed off at hour 63

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:04 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Hour 54 the EURO looks fantastic compared to 00z run. Energy is stronger, ridge amp'd, even heights ahead are already rising.

Omg, thank God...we're all awaiting this run with baited breath. If it holds serve, my Twitter is going to bomb out sub 970 style.

by track17 Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:05 pm

Ok I will but would be nice if you guys could actually talk about the coast you don't seem to do that coast seems forgotten

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:05 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Hour 54 the EURO looks fantastic compared to 00z run. Energy is stronger, ridge amp'd, even heights ahead are already rising.

Omg, thank God...we're all awaiting this run with baited breath. If it holds serve, my Twitter is going to bomb out sub 970 style.

This may have been the best pun I have ever seen hahahahaha That was great!!!!

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:06 pm

CMC hr 120, actually colder, RS line from I95 to Rt9, unless this map is wrong.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016011812&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=201

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