Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:42 am

None of the ensembles even remotely resemble the OP, how does that make sense than not even one looks similar?

by Abba701 Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:43 am

Based on the GFS ensemble and euro

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:43 am

pdubz wrote:and the EURO is being thrown out

"AND THE ECMWF THE WORST. IN FACT...THE ECMWF IS
SO FAR FROM ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS
IN 4 DISTINCT AREAS BEGINNING SATURDAY THAT IT WAS NOT USED AT ALL
IN THE BLENDING PROCESS"

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

Sweet I hope they are right and therefore maybe the GFS ensembles are wrong too. Thats a slice of a bit of good news.

by **pdubz** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:44 am

This is CMC by the way

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 12 Cmc_snow_acc_nyc_19

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:46 am

I like the NWS : )

MAIN IMPACTS...

MORE HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS WILL
AFFECT THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT LIKELY. BY SATURDAY ALSO...THE WINTER STORM ALONG THE
EAST COAST SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY WITH 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW
EXPECTED FROM THE APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TOWARD
NEW YORK WITH HUGE IMPACTS TO COMMERCE...TRAVEL...AND POSSIBLY
LIFE AND PROPERTY. REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
WATCHES/WARNINGS/STATEMENTS FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION IN YOUR
AREA.

JAMES

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:48 am

pdubz wrote:This is CMC by the way

Actually go out to 120 I believe theres a tiny bit more. Anyways I am concerned to see the CMC ensembles. Checking to see if the 12z Euro para came in yet.

by **oldtimer** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:51 am

Jman what is going on? everything we gain from last night is gone

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:51 am

nope no 12z euro para, that thing does what it wants lol

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:51 am

EURO HAS INITIALIZED

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:52 am

oldtimer wrote:Jman what is going on? everything we gain from last night is gone

not completely we regained some help at 00z from sref, nam, gfs operational and the cmc. The euro 12z was terrible but the NWS is saying its wrong. Things are now kinda all over, I know you would think closer we would have the agreement but now it seems to be skewing.

by **Vinnydula** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:53 am

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:53 am

SoulSingMG wrote:EURO HAS INITIALIZED

Here we go plz don't take too long to load I need sleep lol, and plz spoons under pillow this comes north : )

by **pdubz** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:53 am

good website to see the EURO model come in?

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:56 am

pdubz wrote:good website to see the EURO model come in?

none are free euro is very protective I have site subscription I cannot read the maps like the head guys but i'll let u know if precip sheild is north or not go b a while though.

by **Vinnydula** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:57 am

Someone has to post it

by **pdubz** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:58 am

ill post whatever i hear and find

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:58 am

i said i will : ) only up to hr 24.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:59 am

Once I see the LP I will start post the images

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:59 am

Jman and I gotchu, we gotchu. We'll post results of it at minimum, hopefully maps. Just sit tight. Takes time for the EURO to load.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:01 am

SoulSingMG wrote:Jman and I gotchu, we gotchu. We'll post results of it at minimum, hopefully maps. Just sit tight. Takes time for the EURO to load.

soul what do u see so far? any major differences?

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:02 am

jeeze our energy looks even further south of 12z at hr 30 into the gulf coast.

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:02 am

Hr 48, lots of energy diving southward, low already forming over northern Louisiana.

by **pdubz** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:03 am

are heights rising on the east coast though?

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:03 am

hr 42 u can see it down in east texas, its stronger than 12z.

01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North? - Page 12 Ecmwf_16

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:04 am

pdubz wrote:are heights rising on the east coast though?

thats the stuff I am not very versed on sorry.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:06 am

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:08 am

That southern LOW. lol. I cannot take this storm. it's giving me insane anxiety.

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