Re: 01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #3 - Will Models Trend Back North?

by **jimv45** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:17 pm

yea Cp that's the way its been Like I was saying I will take 3-6 at this point the heavy stuff stays south but it will be colder so we hope for something!

by **Scullybutcher** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:19 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Artechmetals wrote:Have a question we were talking about how this storm could of possibly been historic is that off the table or is it still possible

DC is getting 25-35"

I'll say historic even if the higher amounts are not over our area. The NWS will surely rank this NESIS 4 or 5.

NESIS 4 or 5?

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:20 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
rb924119 wrote:GFS ensembles are a non-event for us northern and western folks lol

I've been concerned with that from the beginning. There's a certain point north of the city that the heavy precip just cannot seem to penetrate. If it happens we root for everyone else in our area. However if DC and Baltimore get 25-35 and that seems likely from every run so far I will be ill.

I agree 100%. There's a lot of power in consensus; sometimes, not often, but sometimes it's wrong. A large majority of the time, though; it turns out to be correct. The Op was gorgeous, but when it is standing alone amongst it's own family, that's never good.

by **jake732** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:24 pm

so bernie rayno keeps saying the really not that much unless u live in dc, baltimore..

by **sroc4** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:30 pm

Scullybutcher wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
Artechmetals wrote:Have a question we were talking about how this storm could of possibly been historic is that off the table or is it still possible

DC is getting 25-35"

I'll say historic even if the higher amounts are not over our area. The NWS will surely rank this NESIS 4 or 5.

NESIS 4 or 5?

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:32 pm

jake732 wrote:so bernie rayno keeps saying the really not that much unless u live in dc, baltimore..

As much it breaks my heart, I have to say that I agree with him.....so far.

by **RJB8525** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:37 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jake732 wrote:so bernie rayno keeps saying the really not that much unless u live in dc, baltimore..

As much it breaks my heart, I have to say that I agree with him.....so far.

lmao if trends go wrong we may hear crickets start chirping on here tonight

good news or bust

by gigs68 Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:39 pm

What constitutes "not much" thought models shifted north

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:41 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jake732 wrote:so bernie rayno keeps saying the really not that much unless u live in dc, baltimore..

As much it breaks my heart, I have to say that I agree with him.....so far.

Untrue. Just watched his video. He says he believes Boston will get 6-12, thinks northward movement still likely, likes a 6" on eastern LI due to mixing but a solid foot in NYC, Philly, BM, & DC.

by **Taffy** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:44 pm

[quote="SoulSingMG"][quote="rb924119"][quote="jake732"]so bernie rayno keeps saying the really not that much unless u live in dc, baltimore..[/quote]

As much it breaks my heart, I have to say that I agree with him.....so far.[/quote]

Untrue. Just watched his video. He says he believes Boston will get 6-12, thinks northward movement still likely, likes a 6" on eastern LI due to mixing but a solid foot in NYC, Philly, BM, & DC. [/quote]

I was just going to post that.

Massive storm to dump a foot of snow from DC to Philadelphia, NYC
Jan 20, 2016; 9:24 AM ET A major winter storm will hit the eastern United States with the potential for heavy snow to impact more than 50 million people at the end of the week.
Colossal storm to unload up to a foot of snow from DC to Philadelphia, NYC

This is from Bernie's video as of 9:30 this morning. I'll try to upload the link. I guess I'm confused but he seemed bullish on the video

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:50 pm

Bernie usually conservative so those amounts could go up. id say nyc stays in the 12+ to as much as 24 range on the high end, and areas around there.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:51 pm

Euro 12z has started!

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:53 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Euro 12z has started!

GRRRRRRREAT. Lol. If it is south, I'm going to cry a little I think.

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:54 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Euro 12z has started!

GRRRRRRREAT. Lol. If it is south, I'm going to cry a little I think.

LMFAO the river of tears shall flow ahaha don't worry, I'll be right there with you ahaha

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:56 pm

Trough is broader through 30

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:56 pm

Positive vibes people no crying this is going to be good just pray!

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:57 pm

Deeper at 36, but not closed.

by **SNOW MAN** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:57 pm

I'm on the edge of my seat !!!!!

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:58 pm

SNOW MAN wrote:I'm on the edge of my seat !!!!!

YOU'RE ALIVE??!!!! Haven't seen you on here since last winter lmao Hope you're doing well man!!

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:59 pm

bernies video at 9:30 also mentions he thinks euro will come north. he going do another video at 2pm.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:59 pm

Better phasing and a trough going to neutral faster on the EURO so far.

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:59 pm

We're doing better than 00z so far. Trough is broader and still not closed at 42.

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:00 pm

Closed off at 48, but broader surrounding trough and further north than 00z by about 50-75 miles with the closed low

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:01 pm

The H5 low is north of 00z. Not by much but it's something.

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:03 pm

Heights are a little higher along the coast too

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:05 pm

Sounds like this coutd be a good run, maybe not huge better than 00z but maybe bit better, we keep creeping each run we will do very well come sat.

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:07 pm

Slightly better than 00z. Lows are about 50-75 miles further north. Baby steps I guess.

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