Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:29 pm

Reputable Source: "GFS has convective feedback issues... I mean hr 78 that run H5 low 350 miles SW of surface low....thats not an issue, thats a MAJOR PROBLEM."

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:32 pm

Very good sources are telling me there is CF everywhere. They recommend using meso models to forecast this system. Man, what a storm. I can't wait until Friday night.

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:33 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Very good sources are telling me there is CF everywhere. They recommend using meso models to forecast this system. Man, what a storm. I can't wait until Friday night.

Yeah so we can sleep ahaha

by **billg315** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:33 pm

Frank, what are the meso models?

by Biggin23 Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:34 pm

I convinced my wife to stay up tonight to see what the models did. After the negative GFS showing she told me "you just wasted six hours a day the past three days watching models, you know it's going to be different tomorrow".....I had to think for a second but she is 100% correct! Bring on the EURO!!!

by **pdubz** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:34 pm

aaaand

"0Z NAM BY THE COBB SNOW ALGORITHM IS 45" @ 15:1 FOR KLGA" fantasy land for sure Rolling Eyes

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:35 pm

WeatherBob wrote:Frank, you have a map of the GFS snowfall?

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 8 Gfs_asnow_neus_16

Artechmetals wrote:Hi Frank was scanning the forecasts and in particular Lonnie from channel 2 is saying he's seeing a rain snow line pushing into NYC is that possible

If the H5 low becomes disorganized then the east winds will take over. Yes, it is possible.

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:RPM model

Where did you get this?

Garrett Bastardi.

by **billg315** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:36 pm

These models are kind of reminding me of the movie "Groundhog Day" I feel like i just went through this the last two nights. I woke up Tuesday to models showing a blizzard. I went to bed Tuesday night to models showing a few inches. I woke up Wednesday to a blizzard. If this pattern holds, I'll wake up tomorrow and the models should show me getting buried again.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:39 pm

1/21 00Z Guidance Suite Summary

QPF @ NYC

SREF: 1.25 - 1.50
NAM: 2.65 - 3.05
RGEM : looked good
GFS: 0.70 - 0.95
GGEM: 0.90 - 1.10

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:39 pm

billg315 wrote:Frank, what are the meso models?

Mesoscale aka short range / high resolution

by Bkdude Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:41 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:1/21 00Z Guidance Suite Summary

QPF @ NYC

SREF: 1.25 - 1.50
NAM: 2.65 - 3.05
RGEM : looked good
GFS: 0.70 - 0.95
GGEM: 0.90 - 1.10

what a, now for a good word of the night! .....Discrepancy

by Biggin23 Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:42 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
billg315 wrote:Frank, what are the meso models?

Mesoscale aka short range / high resolution

Tomorrow night's NAM could be huge then, wouldn't it be pretty close to in range (36-48 hours)?

by **billg315** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:42 pm

would that include the NAM then, despite our general dislike of it?

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:43 pm

what is cf? by the way good job..frank..on the chat

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:44 pm

billg315 wrote:would that include the NAM then, despite our general dislike of it?

Yes. Yes it would.

weatherwatchermom wrote:what is cf? by the way good job..frank..on the chat

Convective feedback. Given H5 models should be tucking a surface low closer to coast and tracking it toward the BM. Instead the surface low tries to jump east where all the thunderstorms are.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:45 pm

Biggin23 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
billg315 wrote:Frank, what are the meso models?

Mesoscale aka short range / high resolution

Tomorrow night's NAM could be huge then, wouldn't it be pretty close to in range (36-48 hours)?

I will trust the NAM 00z Friday. That's it.

by **billg315** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:46 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:what is cf? by the way good job..frank..on the chat

I believe "convective feedback" which deals with issues in the modeling related to changes in temp/precip caused by convection in a system. I think.

by **mako460** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:46 pm

Am i missing something here? During the chat and the last model runs it was Philly that became the jackpot, not D.C. That's a 130 mile jog NE in one run. Not to mention the fact that NYC is still looking at a solid 6-10"" storm, if not more. What is the problem? Granted it wont be the "Roidzilla that the Not A Model showed but considering this winter, we should gladly take it!

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:46 pm

00z UKMET looks improved. Waiting on precip maps.

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 8 GZ_D5_PN_072_0000

by **amugs** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:47 pm

The gfs run did not cutoff this low later and further n and w than previous runs. So I don't buy that. Surface is lost.

Isotherm says

Agree with all of this. Think the poor sfc reflection is related to the early cut-off and convective feedback. But even still, I would have expected a better sfc solution given the mid level dynamics (albeit in decaying phase).
Good night and lay me to rest on me pillow till tomorrow mayhem !!

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:47 pm

mako460 wrote:Am i missing something here? During the chat and the last model runs it was Philly that became the jackpot, not D.C. That's a 130 mile jog NE in one run. Not to mention the fact that NYC is still looking at a solid 6-10"" storm, if not more. What is the problem? Granted it wont be the "Roidzilla that the Not A Model showed but considering this winter, we should gladly take it!

Nope, not missing a thing. This is still in line to be a 6-12" snowstorm at minimum IMO. The Godzilla amounts are still possible if models can figure out the CF situation.

by **amugs** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:48 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:00z UKMET looks improved. Waiting on precip maps.

HUUUGGGEEEE!!!!! UKIE GOING TO LEAD THE WAY FIRST TO SNIFF THIS OUT!!

by **RJB8525** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:48 pm

Got nick's first snow call for you Frank was looking hard for it can't find Lonnie

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 8 JqDDHPV

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:48 pm

by **amugs** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:49 pm

by **billg315** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:49 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Biggin23 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
billg315 wrote:Frank, what are the meso models?

Mesoscale aka short range / high resolution

Tomorrow night's NAM could be huge then, wouldn't it be pretty close to in range (36-48 hours)?

I will trust the NAM 00z Friday. That's it.

Frank, when you give me the green light to trust the NAM, I'll take it. Not a second before. lol

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:49 pm

It only goes out to 72. Also shows a cut-off.

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 8 P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000

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