01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Frank_Wx wrote:

Biggin23 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

billg315 wrote:Frank, what are the meso models?

Mesoscale aka short range / high resolution

Tomorrow night's NAM could be huge then, wouldn't it be pretty close to in range (36-48 hours)?

I will trust the NAM 00z Friday. That's it.

Frank, when you give me the green light to trust the NAM, I'll take it. Not a second before. lol

It only goes out to 72. Also shows a cut-off.

Still a major sharp cutoff to the north with the preip - dan it

RJB8525 wrote:Got nick's first snow call for you Frank was looking hard for it can't find Lonnie

Awesome, thanks!

Notice heights contours. Pointing NE

pdubz wrote:aaaand

"0Z NAM BY THE COBB SNOW ALGORITHM IS 45" @ 15:1 FOR KLGA" fantasy land for sure  

Donal Trump - "Make the NAM great again!"

Frank_Wx wrote:RPM model

I wish.

Joe Snow wrote:

pdubz wrote:aaaand

"0Z NAM BY THE COBB SNOW ALGORITHM IS 45" @ 15:1 FOR KLGA" fantasy land for sure  

Donal Trump - "Make the NAM great again!"

LOL

RJB8525 wrote:

Joe Snow wrote:

pdubz wrote:aaaand

"0Z NAM BY THE COBB SNOW ALGORITHM IS 45" @ 15:1 FOR KLGA" fantasy land for sure  

Donal Trump - "Make the NAM great again!"

LOL

As long as we're not building a precipitation cutoff wall across central NJ.

Frank_Wx wrote:

mako460 wrote:Am i missing something here?  During the chat and the last model runs it was Philly that became the jackpot, not D.C.  That's a 130 mile jog NE in one run.  Not to mention the fact that NYC is still looking at a solid 6-10"" storm, if not more.  What is the problem?  Granted it wont be the "Roidzilla that the Not A Model showed but considering this winter, we should gladly take it!

Nope, not missing a thing. This is still in line to be a 6-12" snowstorm at minimum IMO. The Godzilla amounts are still possible if models can figure out the CF situation.

so let me understand,all of this could be a problem with how model is handling system...I'm happy with whatever we get just want to understand

Hey guys just caught up sorry missed the chat I had a long ay and fell out early just to wakeup and ahh shoot. Oh well, The NAM was insane and if indeed it is handling this bettert than the GFS and CMC then man we better get ready! I am glad to hear there were issues with gfs and cmc but i am still concerned but still by tomorrow night I am pretty sure we will have a much better idea. Oh and the contra thing so totally remember that and still have CONTRA!

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

mako460 wrote:Am i missing something here?  During the chat and the last model runs it was Philly that became the jackpot, not D.C.  That's a 130 mile jog NE in one run.  Not to mention the fact that NYC is still looking at a solid 6-10"" storm, if not more.  What is the problem?  Granted it wont be the "Roidzilla that the Not A Model showed but considering this winter, we should gladly take it!

Nope, not missing a thing. This is still in line to be a 6-12" snowstorm at minimum IMO. The Godzilla amounts are still possible if models can figure out the CF situation.

 so let me understand,all of this could be a problem with how model is handling system...I'm happy with whatever we get just want to understand

Correct. 500mb level should match the surface. Right now there is a disconnect

Hyde at best I think we end up 2 to 4 but still got sometime.

CMC looks better, just got back and like tonights trends so far, GFS isnt handling temps or mesoscale banding right as per usual but trended better with track

Frank, on twitter it sounds like the gfs was a good run? On this forum it didn't sound like that, am I missing something?

GEFS are north.

Ok txt...are you staying up for. Euro?

jake732 wrote:Frank, on twitter it sounds like the gfs was a good run? On this forum it didn't sound like that, am I missing something?

If you look at track and not take it verbatim, it was...

jimv45 wrote:Hyde at best I think we end up 2 to 4 but still got sometime.

At this point I'll take it. I don't want to get shut out.

Didn't see the CMC. Does any precip make it to HV or is there still a wall?

hyde I have been following snow storms for 30 years I have never seen such a sharp cutoff like this just can't happen or can it?

jimv45 wrote:hyde I have been following snow storms for 30 years I have never seen such a sharp cutoff like this just can't happen or can it?

I guess we will find out by Sunday morning.

jimv45 wrote:hyde I have been following snow storms for 30 years I have never seen such a sharp cutoff like this just can't happen or can it?

I agree to sharp, I think the Precipitation field will be much larger and expand out ward north and west.

hyde345 wrote:Didn't see the CMC. Does any precip make it to HV or is there still a wall?

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

hyde345 wrote:Didn't see the CMC. Does any precip make it to HV or is there still a wall?

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Thanks Tom.

Gettin goin already?

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_us_loop-12.gif