Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:47 pm

The nam is in its own camp no support

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:48 pm

Everyone: Just saw this post from NYC's "official meteorologist"...

"Time to take the NAM seriously, it is in its range. Check out my article in today's Gothamist: http://gothamist.com/2016/01/21/mitch_snow_weather_king.php "

by **algae888** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:48 pm

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:49 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Good to see the NWS collaborating..(sarcasm)

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=277716[/quot

we snow for 6 to 8 hours more after that.

I know, meant the "great" way the offices collaborate with eachother and how the totals from one border are drastically different like in WV and on PA/MD border.

by Guest Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:49 pm

docstox12 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Thru 63....let it ride 18z NAM or bust all or nothing....

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016012118&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=063

I'm with you...ALL IN on 18z NAM.Bury me or bust me!

CHRIS MONEYMAKER WON THE WORLD SERIES OF POKER BEING DEALT A HAND OF 3,7. EF IT LIKE DOC SAYS! ALL IN! CMON CP WE'RE WITH YOU BUDDY!!

by **algae888** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:50 pm

upton's snow map still very bullish
01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 24 StormTotalSnowFcst

by Guest Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:52 pm

and as we rejoice at the NAM the NWS has graphically lowered amounts over the NYC area!!!!

by **docstox12** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:52 pm

Right on Jimmy.Make me rich with snow or dead broke!!! Right now I've got two crap down cards but snow poker is snow poker!!!!

by Guest Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:52 pm

algae888 wrote:upton's snow map still very bullish

Lower than earlier today for most areas!

by **frank 638** Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:55 pm

Long busy day when will this storm make up its mind do you think the total's go up tonight they have me at 8 to 12 inches

by **algae888** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:00 pm

james after today's global runs I thought they would lower the city to 4-6" maybe they know something we don't. there is a very strong lp in the western atlantic. maybe they go by past history of what storms like these do and not just guidance.

by **snow247** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:06 pm

RGEM looks bad like the Euro. I think this storm is just about done for anyone north of the city. Even the city is right on the edge with this. Sad

Second call map from me soon.

by **billg315** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:06 pm

The NAM is just so outrageous right now that I struggle to take it seriously as much as I want to. But . . The NAM doesn't have to completely verify for us to get pummeled. Here's how I'm looking at it for now: The GFS still gives us a decent storm even with recent trends south. For us the GFS wouldn't have to be too far off for us to get screwed, but it likewise wouldn't have to be too far off for us to get close to what the NAM projects. But the NAM has to be completely out in left field for us to get screwed. Therefore I think a solution in between the NAM and GFS makes the most sense. Which would be good. Unless of course the NAM is just a completely useless POS model.

by **jake732** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:07 pm

Funny that the nws snow map is so different then the long range models. I am believing the short a bit

by **jake732** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:11 pm

Craig Allen isn't going with NAM @all. The long range all the way

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:14 pm

billg315 wrote:The NAM is just so outrageous right now that I struggle to take it seriously as much as I want to. But . . The NAM doesn't have to completely verify for us to get pummeled. Here's how I'm looking at it for now: The GFS still gives us a decent storm even with recent trends south. For us the GFS wouldn't have to be too far off for us to get screwed, but it likewise wouldn't have to be too far off for us to get close to what the NAM projects. But the NAM has to be completely out in left field for us to get screwed. Therefore I think a solution in between the NAM and GFS makes the most sense. Which would be good. Unless of course the NAM is just a completely useless POS model.

I'm starting to think this may be the best way to figure this thing out not only for snow totals but I want to here about winds and tidal flooding because people aren't taking that part of the storm serious.

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:14 pm

somehow mt holly still has me in 8-14 last updated at 10am in text advisory though

ABC latest totals

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 24 HLLpbTo

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 24 HLLpbTo

Holly percentage map

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 24 Bd8vt6W

for 12 or more

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 24 OfpIpVO

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:24 pm

Lee Goldberg just lowered snow totals. Do these forecasters only follow the globals only?

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:25 pm

RJB8525 wrote:somehow mt holly still has me in 8-14 last updated at 10am in text advisory though

ABC latest totals

Holly percentage map

for 12 or more

I think Lee might actually be slightly to far north. Ill have a map our after the 18z GFS

by **Radz** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:28 pm

Quietace wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:somehow mt holly still has me in 8-14 last updated at 10am in text advisory though

ABC latest totals

Holly percentage map

for 12 or more

I think Lee might actually be slightly to far north. Ill have a map our after the 18z GFS

Lee lives in Somers, he doesn't wanna miss out!

by **oldtimer** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:30 pm

If Lee lowers his totals it's pretty much set in store He is sharp and if he had any doubt he would have left amounts the same

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:33 pm

oldtimer wrote:If Lee lowers his totals it's pretty much set in store He is sharp and if he had any doubt he would have left amounts the same

Agree

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:33 pm

oldtimer wrote:If Lee lowers his totals it's pretty much set in store He is sharp and if he had any doubt he would have left amounts the same

Agreed. I no longer see NYC metro picking up more than 5-6 inches.

Hopefully we are able to spike up another big threat sometime this season.

by **jimv45** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:35 pm

Just watched 7 this Looks like dud for MANY

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:35 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Lee Goldberg just lowered snow totals. Do these forecasters only follow the globals only?

I don't know what they follow it's usually Euro or gfs

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:37 pm

Wow the Nam was eye candy for me 30 inches take a third off still 20. I dunno like bernie the was almost se move isn't right. What would cause that? The st face maps don't even match the 500mb right? I think this is going to b a big bust on lr models and blow everyone's mind. Of course could b dead wrong. No shame in it for me if I am.

by **jimv45** Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:38 pm

Soul I have serious concerns about seeing much this season.

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