Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

by **billg315** Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:28 am

It is strange that Mt Holly increased (somewhat dramatically) their totals overnight as the models are hinting at some problems with the storm (except the NAM which is off the charts).

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:37 am

Frank here is a fox snow total map update

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 13 6KfjP4H

by **Dtone** Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:43 am

Upton has max potential 20" for nyc and LI. Min potential 2"
Most likely 11".

by **jake732** Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:48 am

Skinns, what happened over night?? We get nothing now!!!

by mwilli5783 Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:49 am

can u get a updated map on upton's 20" 4 nyc/li.....

by **devsman** Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:49 am

I just looked at the latest GFS. It shows the storm not starting til the afternoon of saturday. Yet the CMC shows it starting before 7am. What is going on?

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:59 am

jake732 wrote:Skinns, what happened over night?? We get nothing now!!!

Not at all Jake don't know where you heard that

by **jake732** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:02 am

The weather channel has me 3 to 5 Saturday and 3 to 5 Saturday night! Last night was 8 to 12 and 5 to 8...

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:13 am

jake732 wrote:The weather channel has me 3 to 5 Saturday and 3 to 5 Saturday night! Last night was 8 to 12 and 5 to 8...

same. numbers all over the place lol

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:14 am

I will not take TWC as the one to believe in

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:21 am

The latest SREFS has upped amounts from the last run. Has over an inch in NYC metro.

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:25 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:The latest SREFS has upped amounts from the last run. Has over an inch in NYC metro.

That is 1" of QPF, not snowfall guys

by **billg315** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:32 am

Haha. Jake, TWC numbers have been all over the place for 72 hours. They've had me with as little as 2 and as much as 24, so take it with a grain of salt. And even if the TWC is right (and don't bet the house on it) 6-10 total isn't nothing. That's a solid storm.

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:44 am

Quietace wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:The latest SREFS has upped amounts from the last run. Has over an inch in NYC metro.
That is 1" of QPF, not snowfall guys

lol...I was like oh boy someone is going to think inches vs qpf..thanks for posting! Very Happy

by Guest Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:47 am

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:It's global models vs short range hi res models. Let's see if global models lose the convective feedback today.

Frank I am sorry to say but I really don't think convective feedback is the main culprit here. I really think its that we have a decaying system by the time we get it all the way up here. The reason it still looks all wird is that you still have the enhanced area of convection to the east in response to the 300mb jet streak to the NE. I think its going to be a battle in the models, like you said, global vs s/r hi res to see how much of the main LP precip shield can hold up and how far north can it get. The ULL matures too soon leading to this surface LP being in that latter stages of it evolution. The start time keeps getting pushed back because everything slows down as soon as we have our mature ULL and surface LP which is trending earier and earlier. Result decaying/occluded/fmain LP filling in. I don't like it. Im not saying things wont change but I just don't like it.

I'm with you sroc. And now mentioning a changeover? My guess is we get light snow for a few hours then it rains all Saturday afternoon (the only part that will verify correct) then we get a sloppy 1-2" on top that freezes overnight, while we watch footage of areas a couple of hundred miles SOUTH get 2 feet + GFS Model

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:51 am

Frank:
I was just reading that some are saying that the models are having trouble outside of VA(crossroads for all models??) and that there should be more reliance on short range models....I want to learn so is there a quick answer to that? or is this mumbo jumbo because people are wish casting?
thanks

by Guest Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:55 am

I don't understand how the HPC fron the National Weather Service has a 988 low moving parallel to the east coast from South Carolina to just east of the BM and 1.5-2.5" of QPF. from LI back southwestward through Jersey on day 3?? What are they looking at. Tells me they trust the short range models over the GFS/Euro/Canadian I think!

by Guest Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:58 am

TWC FWIW has NYC and LI 5-8"

In My Opinion Upton will lower totals for their area by half this evening. I'm now 8-12" and will go down to 4-8" and probably even lower tomorrow.

by **jake732** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:01 am

Y the h*ll are we getting rain mixing in??????

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:06 am

Relax guys, many pro mets and Frank believe there will be north changes or feel its very possible at least. We will hav e 12z today 00z tonight and 12z tomorrow, short range models may very well be handling this better but just not trusted yet as not fully in range. If they continue like the NAM into tomorrow then I am going to be very intrigued.

by Guest Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:07 am

For those (like myself even though I'm really dejected) still holding out hope I read this from the NWS discussion out of Boston Mass...................AS MENTIONED ABOVE KEEP IN MIND THE AVG MODEL TRACK
ERROR AT THIS TIME RANGE /72-84HRS/ IS ON THE ORDER OF 125 MILES PER
WPC. We're inside of 48 so take it with a grain of salt.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:10 am

About to watch myself, he has been good on this storm so far. Bernie Rayno.

https://t.co/df6te7Ug6O

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:10 am

How many model runs now are going to have errors? What a joke

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:10 am

jmanley32 wrote:Relax guys, many pro mets and Frank believe there will be north changes or feel its very possible at least. We will hav e 12z today 00z tonight and 12z tomorrow, short range models may very well be handling this better but just not trusted yet as not fully in range. If they continue like the NAM into tomorrow then I am going to be very intrigued.

After getting a chance to review overnight runs, I feel, If things do not adjust, things could even get ugly for NJ. Many totals may be cut in half from a faster(Start to finish) and weaker system. But I will wait for the 12z's.

by dsvinos Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:11 am

For anyone feeling let down watch Bernie Rayno's latest video Smile

by **docstox12** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:11 am

Yep.Lee Goldberg mentioned the other night , as Bill Evens did once, the models are for guidance only.They predicted a storm which developed, but the exact track can't be certain until the day of the storm.I have seen bizarre things happen watching these snowstorms for many years.You are only sure the day the storm hits and your radar shows you 6 to 8 hours of 1 to 2 inch an hour snowfall.Until then, nothing is a lock.

by **sroc4** Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:18 am

syosnow94 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:It's global models vs short range hi res models. Let's see if global models lose the convective feedback today.

Frank I am sorry to say but I really don't think convective feedback is the main culprit here. I really think its that we have a decaying system by the time we get it all the way up here. The reason it still looks all wird is that you still have the enhanced area of convection to the east in response to the 300mb jet streak to the NE. I think its going to be a battle in the models, like you said, global vs s/r hi res to see how much of the main LP precip shield can hold up and how far north can it get. The ULL matures too soon leading to this surface LP being in that latter stages of it evolution. The start time keeps getting pushed back because everything slows down as soon as we have our mature ULL and surface LP which is trending earier and earlier. Result decaying/occluded/fmain LP filling in. I don't like it. Im not saying things wont change but I just don't like it.

I'm with you sroc. And now mentioning a changeover? My guess is we get light snow for a few hours then it rains all Saturday afternoon (the only part that will verify correct) then we get a sloppy 1-2" on top that freezes overnight, while we watch footage of areas a couple of hundred miles SOUTH get 2 feet +

This is NOT what Im saying.

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