Re: Weather Statistics Thread

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Below is the average snowfall for NYC (Central Park) per month since January 2010. Just a shade under 40 inches per season.

Oct   Nov   Dec     Jan     Feb     Mar     April     May    Total
0.3   1.2    5.1     14.2     12.8    5.5     0.6       0.0     39.7    Jan 2010-Current

January and February have been carrying the load. The other months are all very near the 150 year average.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Yesterdays 6.4 inches of snow in NYC becomes only the 5th November storm of 6 inches or more. It also becomes the 193rd storm of six inches or more since records (1869) have been kept.

NYC 6 + inch snows by Month

5          2.6%       November
37       19.2%       December
48       24.9%       January
65       33.7%       February
31       16.1%       March
7        3.6%          April

193  100.0%    Total

[Dtone]

Below is the average snowfall for NYC (Central Park) per month since January 2010. Just a shade under 40 inches per season.

Oct   Nov   Dec     Jan     Feb     Mar     April     May    Total
0.3   1.2    5.1     14.2     12.8    5.5     0.6       0.0     39.7    Jan 2010-Current

January and February have been carrying the load. The other months are all very near the 150 year average.

What a time to be alive..

[Math23x7]

With the 6.4" from yesterday, it is now official! The 2010's is the snowiest decade on record in Central Park.

Here are the rankings:

2010s 352.4
1890s 352.3
1870s 335.1
1940s 326.7
1880s 324.8
1960s 310.5
1910s 305.2
1900s 298.1
1920s 292.0
2000s 292.0
1930s 241.3
1990s 238.3
1970s 222.0
1950s 215.3
1980s 199.4.

And we still have the rest of 2018 and the rest of 2019 to add on to this

[docstox12]

With the 6.4" from yesterday, it is now official!  The 2010's is the snowiest decade on record in Central Park.

Here are the rankings:

2010s 352.4
1890s 352.3
1870s 335.1
1940s 326.7
1880s 324.8
1960s 310.5
1910s 305.2
1900s 298.1
1920s 292.0
2000s 292.0
1930s 241.3
1990s 238.3
1970s 222.0
1950s 215.3
1980s 199.4.

And we still have the rest of 2018 and the rest of 2019 to add on to this

Wow! My recollections start in 1960 so I lived through the miserable 1970's and 1980's and 1990's.I never thought I would see any decade beat the what I thought was back then, the 1960's, but the 2010's are going to blow it's doors off.Some pretty heavy company, the 1870's, 1880's and 1890's!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The final tally of the November 15, 2018 storm. Orange County seemed to win this one in our area (Gardnertown had 13.0 inches).

I know Mount Hope in Orange County recorded 18.3 by a trained spotter but I'm still not buying that one.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I was just glancing at some data today and happen to notice that 3 of the last 4 winters in NYC March has been the snowiest month.

Something to consider should we have the snowfall contest again this year.

#Marchisstillwinter

[docstox12]

I was just glancing at some data today and happen to notice that 3 of the last 4 winters in NYC March has been the snowiest month.

Something to consider should we have the snowfall contest again this year.

#Marchisstillwinter

Reading this happy hashtag made me realize that we have nearly 4 1/2 months of snow production time not counting April, which can be a wild card as well.

I believe we had 50 inches or more in the HV last year CP if my memory serves me correctly.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I was just glancing at some data today and happen to notice that 3 of the last 4 winters in NYC March has been the snowiest month.

Something to consider should we have the snowfall contest again this year.

#Marchisstillwinter

Reading this happy hashtag made me realize that we have nearly 4 1/2 months of snow production time not counting April, which can be a wild card as well.

I believe we had 50 inches or more in the HV last year CP if my memory serves me correctly.

Exactly Doc. It was an awesome spring.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I love these stats Mike, I hope you don't mind my copying it over here to the weather & stats thread to preserve it.

November 2018 is complete. Here are the results for NYC with 1981-2010 anomalies:

Temperature: 44.4: -3.3
Precipitation: 7.62": +3.60"
Snow: 6.4": +6.1"

Warmest temperature reading: 72 (2nd)
Warmest low temperature: 64 (2nd)
Lowest temperature reading: 15 (23rd)
Lowest high temperature: 28 (22nd)

November 2018 was the 7th wettest month on record (the wettest being 12.41" in 1972).
November 2018 was the 4th snowiest month on record (behind 1938 (12.8"), 1882 (14") and 1898 (19")

November 1938 was tied with 1920, 1974, and 1972 with the 40th coldest November on record

With records going back to 1869, this is the 150th November CPK has been keeping weather records.

If we were to use the 1871-1900 averages, November 2018 would actually be 0.8* above normal. The last November to be below the 1871-1900 average of 43.6 was 1996 and the last month to be below the 1871-1900 average was February 2015 (7.1* below that average). As cold as it was this month, it pales in comparison to those late-1800's Novembers.

[Math23x7]

If no snow fell between now and the end of 2020 (god forbid), here are what the 1991-2020 monthly snowfall averages would be like compared to the 1981-2010 averages:

October: 0.1" (up from trace)
November: 0.5" (up from 0.3")
December: 4.7" (down from 4.8")
January: 8.6" (up from 7.0")
February: 10.1" (up from 9.2")
March: 4.6" (up from 3.9")
April: 0.4" (down from 0.6")

Sum: 29.0" (up from 25.8")

Note that the Sum is using the rounded numbers for the months.

[Frank_Wx]

If no snow fell between now and the end of 2020 (god forbid), here are what the 1991-2020 monthly snowfall averages would be like compared to the 1981-2010 averages:

October: 0.1" (up from trace)
November: 0.5" (up from 0.3")
December: 4.7" (down from 4.8")
January: 8.6" (up from 7.0")
February: 10.1" (up from 9.2")
March: 4.6" (up from 3.9")
April: 0.4" (down from 0.6")

Sum: 29.0" (up from 25.8")

Note that the Sum is using the rounded numbers for the months.

Looks like we have benefited from back-half winters more in the last decade.

[Math23x7]

The trend in recent years has been for back-loaded winters.  More specifically, mild weather in December and cold weather in March.  Or perhaps anomalously warm weather in the dead of winter and a cold March.  

Historically, out of the four cold months (December, January, February, and March), March has been the warmest.  The 1981-2010 monthly averages are as follows:

December: 37.5
January: 32.6
February: 35.3
March: 42.5

Here are the monthly temperatures for every cold season beginning with the 1869-70 cold season as well as the month that was the warmest:

SEASON DEC JAN FEB MAR WARMEST
1869-70 34.7 37.5 31.3 34.1 January
1870-71 34.1 28.3 30.2 44.2 March
1871-72 29.2 28.8 29.9 30.5 March
1872-73 26.7 28.6 29.5 35.7 March
1873-74 36.5 34.2 31.3 37.1 March
1874-75 33.8 23.8 25.2 34.1 March
1875-76 33.9 36.6 31.8 34.4 January
1876-77 24.9 27.7 37.0 35.8 February
1877-78 37.4 30.3 32.2 44.1 March
1878-79 32.8 26.9 28.0 40.0 March
1879-80 37.3 39.6 37.2 36.5 January
1880-81 26.5 24.7 28.7 36.7 March
1881-82 39.4 28.8 35.2 40.4 March
1882-83 30.6 25.2 30.2 32.7 March
1883-84 32.0 24.7 34.0 37.7 March
1884-85 33.6 29.4 22.7 30.6 December
1885-86 35.7 26.8 27.5 37.6 March
1886-87 29.6 29.1 32.0 32.3 March
1887-88 33.8 23.0 29.3 30.0 December
1888-89 34.7 35.7 27.8 39.7 March
1889-90 40.0 37.6 37.9 35.6 December
1890-91 29.9 33.8 36.5 35.8 February
1891-92 42.3 31.5 33.4 34.2 December
1892-93 32.2 23.7 29.4 35.5 March
1893-94 34.5 33.6 28.6 42.8 March
1894-95 36.8 29.8 24.1 35.4 December
1895-96 38.1 29.8 31.9 32.6 December
1896-97 34.2 30.8 33.2 40.8 March
1897-98 38.3 35.3 35.8 45.6 March
1898-99 34.6 31.4 27.9 37.9 March
1899-00 38.2 31.8 30.3 33.4 December
1900-01 36.3 32.5 26.3 38.4 March
1901-02 35.7 30.6 29.7 44.4 March
1902-03 32.5 30.4 33.2 47.8 March
1903-04 31.5 25.3 25.4 36.4 March
1904-05 30.3 29.3 24.8 40.4 March
1905-06 38.9 38.4 32.8 35.6 December
1906-07 34.2 34.9 25.9 42.5 March
1907-08 38.8 33.5 27.5 41.4 March
1908-09 37.6 34.7 37.7 37.8 March
1909-10 32.4 31.1 30.0 43.0 March
1910-11 30.0 36.3 31.3 34.7 January
1911-12 39.4 23.7 28.8 37.6 December
1912-13 39.3 40.9 31.3 44.8 March
1913-14 38.7 31.5 25.4 36.5 December
1914-15 31.6 34.5 35.9 36.8 March
1915-16 33.5 36.0 27.9 32.4 January
1916-17 34.0 32.9 28.3 39.3 March
1917-18 25.0 21.7 30.4 42.1 March
1918-19 39.4 35.6 34.9 43.3 March
1919-20 30.2 23.4 28.5 39.9 March
1920-21 37.3 33.4 34.0 48.4 March
1921-22 32.5 28.2 33.6 41.0 March
1922-23 33.6 30.0 26.2 36.8 March
1923-24 42.0 32.7 28.9 39.2 December
1924-25 34.0 28.4 37.9 44.2 March
1925-26 34.8 32.0 29.2 35.7 March
1926-27 28.9 30.9 36.4 43.0 March
1927-28 36.7 34.0 33.0 38.8 March
1928-29 39.3 31.9 32.9 45.1 March
1929-30 35.8 33.3 37.0 40.3 March
1930-31 34.6 32.8 33.9 40.3 March
1931-32 41.0 43.2 36.1 37.3 January
1932-33 39.1 40.3 34.1 38.4 January
1933-34 32.7 34.7 19.9 37.3 March
1934-35 33.4 28.9 31.2 43.4 March
1935-36 30.0 29.3 25.7 45.2 March
1936-37 38.6 40.2 34.8 36.5 January
1937-38 35.4 32.1 35.4 44.2 March
1938-39 37.0 32.2 37.0 39.2 March
1939-40 36.9 25.0 32.9 35.1 December
1940-41 38.4 29.4 31.1 35.9 December
1941-42 38.3 30.7 29.7 43.0 March
1942-43 31.1 30.8 34.6 40.2 March
1943-44 33.0 33.9 33.2 37.6 March
1944-45 32.4 25.1 33.9 51.1 March
1945-46 31.0 34.1 31.7 49.8 March
1946-47 37.9 37.2 29.3 37.8 December
1947-48 34.0 25.4 30.7 42.1 March
1948-49 38.3 38.6 38.6 42.9 March
1949-50 39.4 41.4 31.6 36.4 January
1950-51 35.0 36.5 36.2 41.5 March
1951-52 38.6 36.2 36.2 40.2 March
1952-53 38.4 37.6 38.4 43.4 March
1953-54 41.3 30.8 40.1 41.6 March
1954-55 35.9 31.0 35.0 41.7 March
1955-56 29.7 32.0 36.6 37.4 March
1956-57 40.9 28.5 37.3 41.9 March
1957-58 40.2 31.9 27.4 40.3 March
1958-59 29.4 31.1 32.1 40.1 March
1959-60 38.4 33.9 36.3 33.3 December
1960-61 30.9 27.7 36.7 41.5 March
1961-62 35.5 32.6 31.8 43.1 March
1962-63 31.5 30.1 28.3 43.7 March
1963-64 31.2 35.7 32.9 43.1 March
1964-65 36.4 29.7 33.9 40.0 March
1965-66 40.5 32.2 35.1 42.7 March
1966-67 35.7 37.4 29.2 37.6 March
1967-68 38.2 26.7 28.9 43.3 March
1968-69 34.3 31.8 32.6 40.1 March
1969-70 33.4 25.1 33.0 38.7 March
1970-71 34.4 27.0 35.1 40.1 March
1971-72 40.8 35.1 31.4 39.8 December
1972-73 38.5 35.5 32.5 46.4 March
1973-74 39.0 35.3 31.7 42.1 March
1974-75 39.4 37.3 35.8 40.2 March
1975-76 35.9 27.4 39.9 44.4 March
1976-77 29.9 22.1 33.5 46.8 March
1977-78 35.7 28.0 27.2 39.0 March
1978-79 38.9 33.6 25.5 46.9 March
1979-80 41.1 33.7 31.4 41.2 March
1980-81 32.5 26.3 39.3 42.3 March
1981-82 36.5 26.1 35.3 42.0 March
1982-83 42.8 34.5 36.4 44.0 March
1983-84 35.2 29.9 40.6 36.7 February
1984-85 43.8 28.8 36.6 45.8 March
1985-86 34.2 34.1 32.0 45.1 March
1986-87 39.0 32.3 33.2 45.2 March
1987-88 39.5 29.5 35.0 43.6 March
1988-89 35.9 37.4 34.5 42.4 March
1989-90 25.9 41.4 39.8 45.1 March
1990-91 42.6 34.9 40.0 44.6 March
1991-92 39.6 35.7 36.4 40.0 March
1992-93 37.9 36.3 30.8 39.7 March
1993-94 37.3 25.6 30.6 40.7 March
1994-95 42.2 37.5 31.6 45.0 March
1995-96 32.4 30.5 33.9 38.9 March
1996-97 41.3 32.2 40.0 41.9 March
1997-98 38.3 40.0 40.6 45.4 March
1998-99 43.2 33.9 38.9 42.5 December
1999-00 40.0 31.3 37.3 47.2 March
2000-01 31.1 33.6 35.9 39.6 March
2001-02 44.1 39.9 40.6 44.1 March*
2002-03 36.0 27.5 30.1 43.1 March
2003-04 37.6 24.7 35.0 43.5 March
2004-05 38.4 31.3 36.5 39.4 March
2005-06 35.3 40.9 35.7 43.1 March
2006-07 43.6 37.5 28.2 42.2 December
2007-08 37.0 36.5 35.8 42.6 March
2008-09 38.1 27.9 36.7 42.4 March
2009-10 35.9 32.5 33.1 48.2 March
2010-11 32.8 29.7 36.0 42.3 March
2011-12 43.3 37.3 40.9 50.9 March
2012-13 41.5 35.1 33.9 40.1 December
2013-14 38.5 28.6 31.6 37.7 December
2014-15 40.5 29.9 23.9 38.1 December
2015-16 50.8 34.5 37.7 48.9 December
2016-17 38.3 38.0 41.6 39.2 February
2017-18 35.0 31.7 42.0 40.2 February

*While December 2001 and March 2002 both had 44.1, the tiebreaker goes to March 2002 since the March 2002 average was 44.145 and the December 2001 average was 44.065


Out of these 149 cold seasons, here is the tally of how many each month has:

December: 22
January: 9
February: 5
March: 113

Given how March has been the warmest 113 out of 149 times (or 75.8%), it's crazy to think it did not win out any of the past six years.  From 2012-13 to 2015-16, December won out and in both 2016-17 and 2017-18, February won out, which had happened only three times before 2016.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Continued below

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The 0.2 inches of snow recorded in Central Park, last night Saturday January19th, now leaves NYC needing 31.1 inches of snow between now and December 31 2020 to reach a 30.0 year average for snowfall when the new 30 year averages come out in Jan 2021. The average would now be 29.0 inches if no more snow fell for the next two years (never happened and hopefully never will).

The current monthly averages for NYC for Jan 1991-Jan 2019

October......0.1
November....0.5
December....5.0
January.......8.9
February....10.8
March.........4.9
April...........0.4

Seasonal Avg..30.7

Can anyone else not see the left half of this write up becuase of the Tom Petty photo? I'm noticing the same thing on other people using photos as avatars. Franks as an example has the same thing going on.

[docstox12]

The 0.2 inches of snow recorded in Central Park, last night Saturday January19th, now leaves NYC needing 31.1 inches of snow between now and December 31 2020 to reach a 30.0 year average for snowfall when the new 30 year averages come out in Jan 2021. The average would now be 29.0 inches if no more snow fell for the next two years (never happened and hopefully never will).

The current monthly averages for NYC for Jan 1991-Jan 2019

October......0.1
November....0.5
December....5.0
January.......8.9
February....10.8
March.........4.9
April...........0.4

Seasonal Avg..30.7

Great work here CP. It gives a boost to know February is the snowiest month.Maybe next month will over perform to compensate for this terrible winter so far.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The 0.2 inches of snow recorded in Central Park, last night Saturday January19th, now leaves NYC needing 31.1 inches of snow between now and December 31 2020 to reach a 30.0 year average for snowfall when the new 30 year averages come out in Jan 2021. The average would now be 29.0 inches if no more snow fell for the next two years (never happened and hopefully never will).

The current monthly averages for NYC for Jan 1991-Jan 2019

October......0.1
November....0.5
December....5.0
January.......8.9
February....10.8
March.........4.9
April...........0.4

Seasonal Avg..30.7

Great work here CP. It gives a boost to know February is the snowiest month.Maybe next month will over perform to  compensate for this terrible winter so far.

Doc in the HV I believe our prime 30 day period for snowfall is Feb 10th -March 11th. So if we can ever get out of this MJO hell we can salvage something. Like I said earlier though there's still no making up for losing December and January. To me those are my favorite months for snow and cold.

[docstox12]

The 0.2 inches of snow recorded in Central Park, last night Saturday January19th, now leaves NYC needing 31.1 inches of snow between now and December 31 2020 to reach a 30.0 year average for snowfall when the new 30 year averages come out in Jan 2021. The average would now be 29.0 inches if no more snow fell for the next two years (never happened and hopefully never will).

The current monthly averages for NYC for Jan 1991-Jan 2019

October......0.1
November....0.5
December....5.0
January.......8.9
February....10.8
March.........4.9
April...........0.4

Seasonal Avg..30.7

Great work here CP. It gives a boost to know February is the snowiest month.Maybe next month will over perform to  compensate for this terrible winter so far.

Doc in the HV I believe our prime 30 day period for snowfall is Feb 10th -March 11th. So if we can ever get out of this MJO hell we can salvage something. Like I said earlier though there's still no making up for losing December and January. To me those are my favorite months for snow and cold.

I think you mentioned before that in the HV area we are in the average is 50 inches.We are around 18 now after this latest storm so we need 32 inches to average out.Difficult in this current winter but not impossible.

Yes, those wonderful years, albeit rare, with constant snowpack from late November through early April are a joy to experience.Low sun angles and short days in December and January add to the fun.I was hoping this year would rival 1995-1996 after the glowing long range forecasts in November but, alas,this winter has underperformed in every way except rainfall.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

We are now entering what is historically the best period in NYC for 6 plus inch snowfalls. There have been 193 six plus inch storms since 1870 occurring in the 5 month period between November 15th to April 13th. Seventy of them have occurred in the 30 day period between January 20th to February 18th.

NYC 6+ inch Snows - 10 day periods
1..... Nov-11-Nov-20
4..... Nov-21-Nov-30
6..... Dec-01-Dec-10
13.... Dec-11-Dec-20
18.... Dec-21-Dec-30
12.... Dec-31-Jan-09
15.... Jan-10-Jan-19
20.... Jan-20-Jan-29
25.... Jan-30-Feb-08
25.... Feb-09-Feb-18
16.... Feb-19-Feb-28
18.... Feb-29-Mar-10
11.... Mar-11-Mar-20
2..... Mar-21-Mar-30
6..... Mar-31-Apr-09
1..... Apr-10-Apr-19

193.. Nov-15-Apr-13

[amugs]

Great stats CP hope this.brings us some luck and reversal of fourtune.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Fixed

[brownie]

Can anyone else not view the left half of this write up because the Tom Petty picture is blocking it? I'm noticing the same thing on Franks write ups, his picture is blocking the left hand side. This is a first.

Yes, I see the same thing. Yours and Frank’s are not the only avatars that started doing that. Some are now so large I can’t read the posts.

[heehaw453]

I was looking at Central Park snowfall history and it looks like least snowy meteorological winter was 2.6 inches 1972/73. I think this year to date must be less. Anyone know?

[Frank_Wx]

I was looking at Central Park snowfall history and it looks like least snowy meteorological winter was 2.6 inches 1972/73.  I think this year to date must be less. Anyone know?

Pretty sure we're at 1.2 inches

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I was looking at Central Park snowfall history and it looks like least snowy meteorological winter was 2.6 inches 1972/73.  I think this year to date must be less. Anyone know?

Pretty sure we're at 1.2 inches

Snowfall isn't calculated per year it's calculated per season.

Think about it, why would you start calculating your snowfall Jan 1 or Dec 1 when accumulating snow can fall in November or even as the case in 2011 in October. March isn't considered Met Winter, but 3 of the last 4 years in NYC and most of the region it's been the snowiest month.

When people speak of records in a year regarding snow it's not the record for a calendar year, it's records for a season. The record in NYC is 75.6 inches which is the 95/96 season. Accumulating snow fell from November 1995 through April 1996 and totaled 75.6. It's calculated the same way everywhere.

Snowfall seasons begin July 1 and end the next June 30th, that way you are calculating your snowfall through a whole season and not two different winters as would be the case if you started on January 1.

So far this season NYC has 7.1 inches of snow, 6.4 in Nov, a trace in Dec, and so far a pathetic 0.7 in January. The record low in a season in NYC is 2.8 inches in 1972/73, it was horrible, 2nd lowest is 3.5 inches in 2001/02 which most here would remember.

Right now this season at 7.1 inches would be the 6th lowest snow amount for a season in 150 years of record keeping. But we still have two good months of snow producing time left.

I will repost the schedule from yesterday which shows we have now historically entered the prime 30 day period for significant snow storms in the NYC area.

We are now entering what is historically the best period in NYC for 6 plus inch snowfalls. There have been 193 six plus inch storms since 1870 occurring in the 5 month period between November 15th to April 13th. Seventy of them have occurred in the 30 day period between January 20th to February 18th.

NYC 6+ inch Snows - 10 day periods
1..... Nov-11-Nov-20
4..... Nov-21-Nov-30
6..... Dec-01-Dec-10
13.... Dec-11-Dec-20
18.... Dec-21-Dec-30
12.... Dec-31-Jan-09
15.... Jan-10-Jan-19
20.... Jan-20-Jan-29
25.... Jan-30-Feb-08
25.... Feb-09-Feb-18
16.... Feb-19-Feb-28
18.... Feb-29-Mar-10
11.... Mar-11-Mar-20
2..... Mar-21-Mar-30
6..... Mar-31-Apr-09
1..... Apr-10-Apr-19

193.. Nov-15-Apr-13

[Frank_Wx]

Hopefully something comes about in these next 30 days.

I look at stats (personally) by Meteorological seasons. Met Winter is DEC-JAN-FEB.

So CPK, for the 2018-2019 Met Winter, is at about 1" of snow.

That is...awful.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Hopefully something comes about in these next 30 days.

I look at stats (personally) by Meteorological seasons. Met Winter is DEC-JAN-FEB.

So CPK, for the 2018-2019 Met Winter, is at about 1" of snow.

That is...awful.

I think you're just bitter because you were in Memphis during the November storm. You want to pretend it didn't happen because you weren't here.            

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