Re: Weather Statistics Thread

[Frank_Wx]

Hopefully something comes about in these next 30 days.

I look at stats (personally) by Meteorological seasons. Met Winter is DEC-JAN-FEB.

So CPK, for the 2018-2019 Met Winter, is at about 1" of snow.

That is...awful.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Hopefully something comes about in these next 30 days.

I look at stats (personally) by Meteorological seasons. Met Winter is DEC-JAN-FEB.

So CPK, for the 2018-2019 Met Winter, is at about 1" of snow.

That is...awful.

I think you're just bitter because you were in Memphis during the November storm. You want to pretend it didn't happen because you weren't here.            

[Frank_Wx]

Hopefully something comes about in these next 30 days.

I look at stats (personally) by Meteorological seasons. Met Winter is DEC-JAN-FEB.

So CPK, for the 2018-2019 Met Winter, is at about 1" of snow.

That is...awful.

I think you're just bitter because you were in Memphis during the November storm. You want to pretend it didn't happen because you weren't here.            

Damn you.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Hopefully something comes about in these next 30 days.

I look at stats (personally) by Meteorological seasons. Met Winter is DEC-JAN-FEB.

So CPK, for the 2018-2019 Met Winter, is at about 1" of snow.

That is...awful.

I think you're just bitter because you were in Memphis during the November storm. You want to pretend it didn't happen because you weren't here.            

Damn you.

I love it.

[sroc4]

Hopefully something comes about in these next 30 days.

I look at stats (personally) by Meteorological seasons. Met Winter is DEC-JAN-FEB.

So CPK, for the 2018-2019 Met Winter, is at about 1" of snow.

That is...awful.

I think you're just bitter because you were in Memphis during the November storm. You want to pretend it didn't happen because you weren't here.            

Damn you.

I love it.

Maybe we pool our resources and send him back to Memphis for a week or two? Maybe Start a go fund me and my winter weather weenie addiction page?

[weatherwatchermom]

Hopefully something comes about in these next 30 days.

I look at stats (personally) by Meteorological seasons. Met Winter is DEC-JAN-FEB.

So CPK, for the 2018-2019 Met Winter, is at about 1" of snow.

That is...awful.

I think you're just bitter because you were in Memphis during the November storm. You want to pretend it didn't happen because you weren't here.            

Damn you.

I love it.

Maybe we pool our resources and send him back to Memphis for a week or two?  Maybe Start a go fund me and my winter weather weenie addiction page?  

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

There are only 4 winters in 150 years in NYC that have seen less than an inch of snow in the December through January period. Interesting enough two of the four saw storms of 2 inches and 6.4 inches in November. It's just another reason I stated on November 16th that I don't like when NYC receives pre Thanksgiving day snows, more times than not it is a bad omen.

1918/19 0.6 inches Nov through January

1931/32 0.9 inches in Dec and January but 2.0 inches in November

1994/95 0.2 inches Nov-January, What a nightmare

1997/98 0.5 inches Nov-Jan, another nightmare.

We really paid dearly for 93/94 and 95/96 with some of the biggest clunkers ever in the 90's

and of course this year 0.7 in December and January and 6.4 in November

[heehaw453]

There are only 4 winters in 150 years in NYC that have seen less than an inch of snow in the December through January period. Interesting enough two of the four saw storms of 2 inches and 6.4 inches in November. It's just another reason I stated on November 16th that I don't like when NYC receives pre Thanksgiving day snows, more times than not it is a bad omen.

1918/19 0.6 inches Nov through January

1931/32 0.9 inches in Dec and January but 2.0 inches in November

1994/95 0.2 inches Nov-January, What a nightmare

1997/98 0.5 inches Nov-Jan, another nightmare.

We really paid dearly for 93/94 and 95/96 with some of the biggest clunkers ever in the 90's

and of course this year 0.7 in December and January and 6.4 in November

Interesting stats. Do you know the least snowy between 12/01 - 2/28(9)? i thought i saw it being 2.6" if i looked at the data correctly.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

There are only 4 winters in 150 years in NYC that have seen less than an inch of snow in the December through January period. Interesting enough two of the four saw storms of 2 inches and 6.4 inches in November. It's just another reason I stated on November 16th that I don't like when NYC receives pre Thanksgiving day snows, more times than not it is a bad omen.

1918/19 0.6 inches Nov through January

1931/32 0.9 inches in Dec and January but 2.0 inches in November

1994/95 0.2 inches Nov-January, What a nightmare

1997/98 0.5 inches Nov-Jan, another nightmare.

We really paid dearly for 93/94 and 95/96 with some of the biggest clunkers ever in the 90's

and of course this year 0.7 in December and January and 6.4 in November

Interesting stats.  Do you know the least snowy between 12/01 - 2/28(9)?  i thought i saw it being 2.6" if i looked at the data correctly.

Don't even have to look it up. That would be the horrible Dec-Feb of 1997/98 at 0.5 inches. The only thing that kept it from being the least snowy season ever was the 5.0 inches that fell in March.

[heehaw453]

There are only 4 winters in 150 years in NYC that have seen less than an inch of snow in the December through January period. Interesting enough two of the four saw storms of 2 inches and 6.4 inches in November. It's just another reason I stated on November 16th that I don't like when NYC receives pre Thanksgiving day snows, more times than not it is a bad omen.

1918/19 0.6 inches Nov through January

1931/32 0.9 inches in Dec and January but 2.0 inches in November

1994/95 0.2 inches Nov-January, What a nightmare

1997/98 0.5 inches Nov-Jan, another nightmare.

We really paid dearly for 93/94 and 95/96 with some of the biggest clunkers ever in the 90's

and of course this year 0.7 in December and January and 6.4 in November

Interesting stats.  Do you know the least snowy between 12/01 - 2/28(9)?  i thought i saw it being 2.6" if i looked at the data correctly.

Don't even have to look it up. That would be the horrible Dec-Feb of 1997/98 at 0.5 inches. The only thing that kept it from  being the least snowy season ever was the 5.0 inches that fell in March.

oh wow. thanks. So that stat is safe thank goodness.

[Math23x7]

Here is something about NYC weather that somewhat baffles me: While there have been places in the midwest and interior northeast that in the last 30-40 years have broken all time record low temperatures going back well over a century, NYC has come no where near it's all-time record low temperature of -15 set back in February 1934. To make it more interesting, ever since February 1943, when the temperature dropped to -8 in Central Park, the lowest air temperature recorded there was -2, which happened on several occasions, most recently in January of 1994. I wonder if the post-WWII economic boom had any impact (i.e. more buildings surrounding the park popping up), but it always seemed strange nonetheless. Here is the link of all the sub-zero readings at CPK:

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/Below0DegreeDays.pdf

[Dtone]

Here is something about NYC weather that somewhat baffles me: While there have been places in the midwest and interior northeast that in the last 30-40 years have broken all time record low temperatures going back well over a century, NYC has come no where near it's all-time record low temperature of -15 set back in February 1934. To make it more interesting, ever since February 1943, when the temperature dropped to -8 in Central Park, the lowest air temperature recorded there was -2, which happened on several occasions, most recently in January of 1994. I wonder if the post-WWII economic boom had any impact (i.e. more buildings surrounding the park popping up), but it always seemed strange nonetheless. Here is the link of all the sub-zero readings at CPK:

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/Below0DegreeDays.pdf

Thats intrigued me too. I think its not just the city but the urbanization of the region overall. Alot of those records were set when even the Bronx was full of farmland. A north wind for example now would be coming across many miles of  much more urbanized areas well into the northern suburbs. If Central Park record keeping didnt go back so far we'd hardly have any record of subzero temps. LGA and JFK have a paltry amount.
Also, urbanization aside, as a coastal city I dont think we can compare with midwestern cities extremes at a similar latitude.

[Math23x7]

Here is something about NYC weather that somewhat baffles me: While there have been places in the midwest and interior northeast that in the last 30-40 years have broken all time record low temperatures going back well over a century, NYC has come no where near it's all-time record low temperature of -15 set back in February 1934. To make it more interesting, ever since February 1943, when the temperature dropped to -8 in Central Park, the lowest air temperature recorded there was -2, which happened on several occasions, most recently in January of 1994. I wonder if the post-WWII economic boom had any impact (i.e. more buildings surrounding the park popping up), but it always seemed strange nonetheless. Here is the link of all the sub-zero readings at CPK:

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/Below0DegreeDays.pdf

Thats intrigued me too. I think its not just the city but the urbanization of the region overall. Alot of those records were set when even the Bronx was full of farmland. A north wind for example now would be coming across many miles of  much more urbanized areas well into the northern suburbs. If Central Park record keeping didnt go back so far we'd hardly have any record of subzero temps. LGA and JFK have a paltry amount.
Also, urbanization aside, as a coastal city I dont think we can compare with midwestern cities extremes at a similar latitude.

That's what I thought. When it comes to records that will never be broken, CPK's all-time record low has be on that list....unless of course, we have a "Day after Tomorrow" like deep freeze in NYC.

[docstox12]

There are only 4 winters in 150 years in NYC that have seen less than an inch of snow in the December through January period. Interesting enough two of the four saw storms of 2 inches and 6.4 inches in November. It's just another reason I stated on November 16th that I don't like when NYC receives pre Thanksgiving day snows, more times than not it is a bad omen.

1918/19 0.6 inches Nov through January

1931/32 0.9 inches in Dec and January but 2.0 inches in November

1994/95 0.2 inches Nov-January, What a nightmare

1997/98 0.5 inches Nov-Jan, another nightmare.

We really paid dearly for 93/94 and 95/96 with some of the biggest clunkers ever in the 90's

and of course this year 0.7 in December and January and 6.4 in November

Interesting stats.  Do you know the least snowy between 12/01 - 2/28(9)?  i thought i saw it being 2.6" if i looked at the data correctly.

Don't even have to look it up. That would be the horrible Dec-Feb of 1997/98 at 0.5 inches. The only thing that kept it from  being the least snowy season ever was the 5.0 inches that fell in March.

And that March 1998 5 inches melted by the end of the day.

It was an awful stretch that '96-'97, '97-'98,'98-'99 period, something that happened very frequently in the 70's and 80's.You youngsters never had it so good starting from 2000 on.

[Dtone]

Everyone bought snow blowers after the great winter of 95-96, just to have them sit idle for years.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The 0.4 inches of snow recorded in Central Park, yesterday, now leaves NYC needing 30.7 inches of snow between now and December 31 2020 to reach a 30 inch average for snowfall, when the new 30 year averages come out in January 2021. The average would now be 29.0 inches if no more snow fell between now and December 31 2020.

The current monthly averages for NYC for Jan 1991-Jan 2019

October......0.1
November....0.5
December....5.0
January.......8.9
February....10.8
March.........4.9
April...........0.4

Seasonal Avg..30.7

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Central Park recorded 1.2 inch of snow today, making Franks snow index of 90% for today correct, but bareeeeely.

The total for the season is now 8.7 inches putting this season in 9th place for the least snowy seasons in the last 150 years.

Central Park now needs 29.5 inches of snow between now and December 31, 2020 for the seasonal snowfall average to reach 30 inches in NYC when the next averages are recalculated again in Jan 2021.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Central Park recorded 1.3 inches of snow today.

The total for the season is now an even 10.0 inches putting this season in 10th place for the least snowy seasons in the last 150 years. At least with today's snow this season avoids becoming just the 10th season of single digit snowfall in NYC.

Central Park now needs 28.2 inches of snow between now and December 31, 2020 for the seasonal snowfall average to reach 30 inches in NYC when the next averages are recalculated again in Jan 2021.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

After yesterdays storm the pattern in the major cities of the northeast this season continues. From Washington to B0ston the snowfall totals are in the complete opposite order of what they should be at this point in time. Washington and Baltimore are currently running above normal, Philadelphia about 4 inches below normal, NYC a little more than half normal and B0ston a little less than 1/3 normal.

1. Washington DC...16.6
2. Baltimore............15.6
3. Philadelphia.........13.1
4. New York............10.0
5. B0ston.................9.2

It's doubtful they finish in this order but if they did it would be the first time in recorded history.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

For the first time this season B0ston moves ahead of NYC for seasonal snowfall by 1/2 an inch. Even though it's been a crappy winter throughout I still take solace that Orange County is 14 inches ahead of them. Let's see how it finishes.

1. Orange County NY...24.9
2. B0ston...................10.5
3. New York City..........10.0

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I'm at 20" for the season to date.  Pattern may become more favorable towards the end of February, but am very skeptical of big bang finish here.  1/3 of the 40" that I got last March would put me to normal snowfall.

With NYC's 30 year average at 30 inches, at least come Jan 2021 when they re-calculate them, I think you're selling yourself a little short thinking 33 inches is your average.

People are very hung up on the current 30 year snowfall averages which throughout the area are at historic lows because they still include the abysmal 1980's and 1990's in those averages. The current averages everyone looks at are for Jan 1981 - Dec 2010. In less than 2 years when the 1980's are no longer part of the calculation the averages will rise about 5 inches throughout the area.

Personally I think looking at a 30 yr avg is garbage.  I think the abysmal years of the 80's and 90's need to be included.  The avg should be 100 yrs minimum.  Time for you and me vs mother's natures time scale are not one and the same.  That's my humble opinion of course.  

I agree, but of course everything that's published is the 30 year averages that the NWS decided to go with 100 odd years ago. However in this case for NYC the next calculated 30 year average will be more representative of the norm.

The 150 year snowfall average in NYC is 28.8 inches per season, the new 30 year averages calculated in 2021 will be about 30 inches give or take an inch, pretty much in line with the historical averages.

Where it did skew results was for the 1971-2000 and the current 1981-2010 averages which were 22.2 and 25.8 respectively. These last 20 years the 30 year averages were very historically on the very low side. As I stated earlier the upcoming 30 year average 1991-2020 will be in line with the 150 year average.

[crippo84]

NWS Upton put an interesting "Climate" section in the discussion...

This has been a tough winter in the Tri-State Area overall to
retain cold air long enough when precipitation has fallen. Most
of our events this winter have been overrunning set-ups that
have seen the cold air largely retreat just before or shortly
after the onset of precipitation. As a result, we`ve seen below
normal snow at all of our climate stations for the snow season
to date and especially for meteorological winter.

For Central Park, the seasonal total as of today stands at 10.0
inches which is 9.2 inches below normal and ranks as the 31st
least snowiest season to date based on records back to 1869.
However, 6.4 inches of this fell during the November 15th storm.
The total for meteorological winter (the months of December,
January and February) is just 3.6 inches which if we get no more
measurable snow this month would finish as the 7th least
snowiest such period on record dating back to 1869. There is
still the possibility of snow before the month of February
closes out so this ranking is not final.

Elsewhere around the area this December and January ranked as
the second least snowiest such period at LaGuardia back to 1940
with 0.6 inch (only exceeded by 1994-1995 with 0.3 inch) and at
Islip back to 1963 with 0.9 inch (only exceeded by a trace in
1994-1995). 1994-1995 was a winter largely marked by ONE major
snowstorm in early February that accounted for the majority of
that season`s snow.

March in this part of the world and even a handful of Aprils
have had their share of notable snows so winter - or at least
the snow season - is not over yet. Some may remember the winter
of 1997-1998 when the seasonal snow total stood at 0.5 inch
until late March in Central Park when the latest inch or more
event ever took place on the 22nd depositing 5.0 inches.
Ironically 5 days later highs soared into the 80s and many trees
started to sprout their leaves for the spring marking one of
the earliest leaf sproutings in this area in memory.

[Dtone]

NWS Upton put an interesting "Climate" section in the discussion...

This has been a tough winter in the Tri-State Area overall to
retain cold air long enough when precipitation has fallen. Most
of our events this winter have been overrunning set-ups that
have seen the cold air largely retreat just before or shortly
after the onset of precipitation. As a result, we`ve seen below
normal snow at all of our climate stations for the snow season
to date and especially for meteorological winter.

For Central Park, the seasonal total as of today stands at 10.0
inches which is 9.2 inches below normal and ranks as the 31st
least snowiest season to date based on records back to 1869.
However, 6.4 inches of this fell during the November 15th storm.
The total for meteorological winter (the months of December,
January and February) is just 3.6 inches which if we get no more
measurable snow this month would finish as the 7th least
snowiest such period on record dating back to 1869. There is
still the possibility of snow before the month of February
closes out so this ranking is not final.

Elsewhere around the area this December and January ranked as
the second least snowiest such period at LaGuardia back to 1940
with 0.6 inch (only exceeded by 1994-1995 with 0.3 inch) and at
Islip back to 1963 with 0.9 inch (only exceeded by a trace in
1994-1995). 1994-1995 was a winter largely marked by ONE major
snowstorm in early February that accounted for the majority of
that season`s snow.

March in this part of the world and even a handful of Aprils
have had their share of notable snows so winter - or at least
the snow season - is not over yet. Some may remember the winter
of 1997-1998 when the seasonal snow total stood at 0.5 inch
until late March in Central Park when the latest inch or more
event ever took place on the 22nd depositing 5.0 inches.
Ironically 5 days later highs soared into the 80s and many trees
started to sprout their leaves for the spring marking one of
the earliest leaf sproutings in this area in memory.

Interesting...I remember 97-98 well. This year isn't as bad as that. By late March I was really over it and would of perferred the least snowest record. I was blown away waking up and seeing snow out of nowhere outside. I went outside to remember what snow feels like..had a little snowball fight, then the sun came out and obliterated the snow by noon. Then sudden summer with temps well into the 80s rest of the month. Looking back that snow was quite the squeeze play. Little did I know a great era of NYC snowfall was coming soon through the 2000s. We were kinda due for a dud again.

[Math23x7]

The trend in recent years has been for back-loaded winters.  More specifically, mild weather in December and cold weather in March.  Or perhaps anomalously warm weather in the dead of winter and a cold March.  

Historically, out of the four cold months (December, January, February, and March), March has been the warmest.  The 1981-2010 monthly averages are as follows:

December: 37.5
January: 32.6
February: 35.3
March: 42.5

Here are the monthly temperatures for every cold season beginning with the 1869-70 cold season as well as the month that was the warmest:

SEASON DEC JAN FEB MAR WARMEST
1869-70 34.7 37.5 31.3 34.1 January
1870-71 34.1 28.3 30.2 44.2 March
1871-72 29.2 28.8 29.9 30.5 March
1872-73 26.7 28.6 29.5 35.7 March
1873-74 36.5 34.2 31.3 37.1 March
1874-75 33.8 23.8 25.2 34.1 March
1875-76 33.9 36.6 31.8 34.4 January
1876-77 24.9 27.7 37.0 35.8 February
1877-78 37.4 30.3 32.2 44.1 March
1878-79 32.8 26.9 28.0 40.0 March
1879-80 37.3 39.6 37.2 36.5 January
1880-81 26.5 24.7 28.7 36.7 March
1881-82 39.4 28.8 35.2 40.4 March
1882-83 30.6 25.2 30.2 32.7 March
1883-84 32.0 24.7 34.0 37.7 March
1884-85 33.6 29.4 22.7 30.6 December
1885-86 35.7 26.8 27.5 37.6 March
1886-87 29.6 29.1 32.0 32.3 March
1887-88 33.8 23.0 29.3 30.0 December
1888-89 34.7 35.7 27.8 39.7 March
1889-90 40.0 37.6 37.9 35.6 December
1890-91 29.9 33.8 36.5 35.8 February
1891-92 42.3 31.5 33.4 34.2 December
1892-93 32.2 23.7 29.4 35.5 March
1893-94 34.5 33.6 28.6 42.8 March
1894-95 36.8 29.8 24.1 35.4 December
1895-96 38.1 29.8 31.9 32.6 December
1896-97 34.2 30.8 33.2 40.8 March
1897-98 38.3 35.3 35.8 45.6 March
1898-99 34.6 31.4 27.9 37.9 March
1899-00 38.2 31.8 30.3 33.4 December
1900-01 36.3 32.5 26.3 38.4 March
1901-02 35.7 30.6 29.7 44.4 March
1902-03 32.5 30.4 33.2 47.8 March
1903-04 31.5 25.3 25.4 36.4 March
1904-05 30.3 29.3 24.8 40.4 March
1905-06 38.9 38.4 32.8 35.6 December
1906-07 34.2 34.9 25.9 42.5 March
1907-08 38.8 33.5 27.5 41.4 March
1908-09 37.6 34.7 37.7 37.8 March
1909-10 32.4 31.1 30.0 43.0 March
1910-11 30.0 36.3 31.3 34.7 January
1911-12 39.4 23.7 28.8 37.6 December
1912-13 39.3 40.9 31.3 44.8 March
1913-14 38.7 31.5 25.4 36.5 December
1914-15 31.6 34.5 35.9 36.8 March
1915-16 33.5 36.0 27.9 32.4 January
1916-17 34.0 32.9 28.3 39.3 March
1917-18 25.0 21.7 30.4 42.1 March
1918-19 39.4 35.6 34.9 43.3 March
1919-20 30.2 23.4 28.5 39.9 March
1920-21 37.3 33.4 34.0 48.4 March
1921-22 32.5 28.2 33.6 41.0 March
1922-23 33.6 30.0 26.2 36.8 March
1923-24 42.0 32.7 28.9 39.2 December
1924-25 34.0 28.4 37.9 44.2 March
1925-26 34.8 32.0 29.2 35.7 March
1926-27 28.9 30.9 36.4 43.0 March
1927-28 36.7 34.0 33.0 38.8 March
1928-29 39.3 31.9 32.9 45.1 March
1929-30 35.8 33.3 37.0 40.3 March
1930-31 34.6 32.8 33.9 40.3 March
1931-32 41.0 43.2 36.1 37.3 January
1932-33 39.1 40.3 34.1 38.4 January
1933-34 32.7 34.7 19.9 37.3 March
1934-35 33.4 28.9 31.2 43.4 March
1935-36 30.0 29.3 25.7 45.2 March
1936-37 38.6 40.2 34.8 36.5 January
1937-38 35.4 32.1 35.4 44.2 March
1938-39 37.0 32.2 37.0 39.2 March
1939-40 36.9 25.0 32.9 35.1 December
1940-41 38.4 29.4 31.1 35.9 December
1941-42 38.3 30.7 29.7 43.0 March
1942-43 31.1 30.8 34.6 40.2 March
1943-44 33.0 33.9 33.2 37.6 March
1944-45 32.4 25.1 33.9 51.1 March
1945-46 31.0 34.1 31.7 49.8 March
1946-47 37.9 37.2 29.3 37.8 December
1947-48 34.0 25.4 30.7 42.1 March
1948-49 38.3 38.6 38.6 42.9 March
1949-50 39.4 41.4 31.6 36.4 January
1950-51 35.0 36.5 36.2 41.5 March
1951-52 38.6 36.2 36.2 40.2 March
1952-53 38.4 37.6 38.4 43.4 March
1953-54 41.3 30.8 40.1 41.6 March
1954-55 35.9 31.0 35.0 41.7 March
1955-56 29.7 32.0 36.6 37.4 March
1956-57 40.9 28.5 37.3 41.9 March
1957-58 40.2 31.9 27.4 40.3 March
1958-59 29.4 31.1 32.1 40.1 March
1959-60 38.4 33.9 36.3 33.3 December
1960-61 30.9 27.7 36.7 41.5 March
1961-62 35.5 32.6 31.8 43.1 March
1962-63 31.5 30.1 28.3 43.7 March
1963-64 31.2 35.7 32.9 43.1 March
1964-65 36.4 29.7 33.9 40.0 March
1965-66 40.5 32.2 35.1 42.7 March
1966-67 35.7 37.4 29.2 37.6 March
1967-68 38.2 26.7 28.9 43.3 March
1968-69 34.3 31.8 32.6 40.1 March
1969-70 33.4 25.1 33.0 38.7 March
1970-71 34.4 27.0 35.1 40.1 March
1971-72 40.8 35.1 31.4 39.8 December
1972-73 38.5 35.5 32.5 46.4 March
1973-74 39.0 35.3 31.7 42.1 March
1974-75 39.4 37.3 35.8 40.2 March
1975-76 35.9 27.4 39.9 44.4 March
1976-77 29.9 22.1 33.5 46.8 March
1977-78 35.7 28.0 27.2 39.0 March
1978-79 38.9 33.6 25.5 46.9 March
1979-80 41.1 33.7 31.4 41.2 March
1980-81 32.5 26.3 39.3 42.3 March
1981-82 36.5 26.1 35.3 42.0 March
1982-83 42.8 34.5 36.4 44.0 March
1983-84 35.2 29.9 40.6 36.7 February
1984-85 43.8 28.8 36.6 45.8 March
1985-86 34.2 34.1 32.0 45.1 March
1986-87 39.0 32.3 33.2 45.2 March
1987-88 39.5 29.5 35.0 43.6 March
1988-89 35.9 37.4 34.5 42.4 March
1989-90 25.9 41.4 39.8 45.1 March
1990-91 42.6 34.9 40.0 44.6 March
1991-92 39.6 35.7 36.4 40.0 March
1992-93 37.9 36.3 30.8 39.7 March
1993-94 37.3 25.6 30.6 40.7 March
1994-95 42.2 37.5 31.6 45.0 March
1995-96 32.4 30.5 33.9 38.9 March
1996-97 41.3 32.2 40.0 41.9 March
1997-98 38.3 40.0 40.6 45.4 March
1998-99 43.2 33.9 38.9 42.5 December
1999-00 40.0 31.3 37.3 47.2 March
2000-01 31.1 33.6 35.9 39.6 March
2001-02 44.1 39.9 40.6 44.1 March*
2002-03 36.0 27.5 30.1 43.1 March
2003-04 37.6 24.7 35.0 43.5 March
2004-05 38.4 31.3 36.5 39.4 March
2005-06 35.3 40.9 35.7 43.1 March
2006-07 43.6 37.5 28.2 42.2 December
2007-08 37.0 36.5 35.8 42.6 March
2008-09 38.1 27.9 36.7 42.4 March
2009-10 35.9 32.5 33.1 48.2 March
2010-11 32.8 29.7 36.0 42.3 March
2011-12 43.3 37.3 40.9 50.9 March
2012-13 41.5 35.1 33.9 40.1 December
2013-14 38.5 28.6 31.6 37.7 December
2014-15 40.5 29.9 23.9 38.1 December
2015-16 50.8 34.5 37.7 48.9 December
2016-17 38.3 38.0 41.6 39.2 February
2017-18 35.0 31.7 42.0 40.2 February
2018-19 40.1 32.5 36.2 TBD

*While December 2001 and March 2002 both had 44.1, the tiebreaker goes to March 2002 since the March 2002 average was 44.145 and the December 2001 average was 44.065


Out of these 149 cold seasons, here is the tally of how many each month has:

December: 22
January: 9
February: 5
March: 113

Given how March has been the warmest 113 out of 149 times (or 75.8%), it's crazy to think it did not win out any of the past six years.  From 2012-13 to 2015-16, December won out and in both 2016-17 and 2017-18, February won out, which had happened only three times before 2016.

I brought this up last December but I think it's worth repeating.  If the high/low temperatures from the 26th-28th from the Channel 7 weather forecast verify, 36.2 would be the mean temperature for February 2019, making the 40.1 from December the highest mean monthly temperature in the December 2018-February 2019 range.  March looks to start out on the chilly side.  In fact, March 3rd seems to start a bitterly cold stretch for March.  Not sure how long it lasts, but it's quite cold.  

While long range outlooks do have it warming up the east around mid-March, can we really trust them this far out?  I mean, if they were right half the time between mid-December and early February, we'd have 50"+ of snow right now.  

If the projected warmth on the long range models is indeed a dud, and the cold weather rolls through late-March, we could be looking at the seventh consecutive year in which March does NOT win out in the set of four winter months shown above.  I mean, it just has to be below December's 40.1 and last March was at 40.2 while several Marches since 2013 were below 40.

March winning out in 113 of 143 years from 1870-2012, but not since 2012 is crazy to be honest.

Note that the 2018-19 row in the quote was edited in.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The trend in recent years has been for back-loaded winters.  More specifically, mild weather in December and cold weather in March.  Or perhaps anomalously warm weather in the dead of winter and a cold March.  

Historically, out of the four cold months (December, January, February, and March), March has been the warmest.  The 1981-2010 monthly averages are as follows:

December: 37.5
January: 32.6
February: 35.3
March: 42.5

Here are the monthly temperatures for every cold season beginning with the 1869-70 cold season as well as the month that was the warmest:

SEASON DEC JAN FEB MAR WARMEST
1869-70 34.7 37.5 31.3 34.1 January
1870-71 34.1 28.3 30.2 44.2 March
1871-72 29.2 28.8 29.9 30.5 March
1872-73 26.7 28.6 29.5 35.7 March
1873-74 36.5 34.2 31.3 37.1 March
1874-75 33.8 23.8 25.2 34.1 March
1875-76 33.9 36.6 31.8 34.4 January
1876-77 24.9 27.7 37.0 35.8 February
1877-78 37.4 30.3 32.2 44.1 March
1878-79 32.8 26.9 28.0 40.0 March
1879-80 37.3 39.6 37.2 36.5 January
1880-81 26.5 24.7 28.7 36.7 March
1881-82 39.4 28.8 35.2 40.4 March
1882-83 30.6 25.2 30.2 32.7 March
1883-84 32.0 24.7 34.0 37.7 March
1884-85 33.6 29.4 22.7 30.6 December
1885-86 35.7 26.8 27.5 37.6 March
1886-87 29.6 29.1 32.0 32.3 March
1887-88 33.8 23.0 29.3 30.0 December
1888-89 34.7 35.7 27.8 39.7 March
1889-90 40.0 37.6 37.9 35.6 December
1890-91 29.9 33.8 36.5 35.8 February
1891-92 42.3 31.5 33.4 34.2 December
1892-93 32.2 23.7 29.4 35.5 March
1893-94 34.5 33.6 28.6 42.8 March
1894-95 36.8 29.8 24.1 35.4 December
1895-96 38.1 29.8 31.9 32.6 December
1896-97 34.2 30.8 33.2 40.8 March
1897-98 38.3 35.3 35.8 45.6 March
1898-99 34.6 31.4 27.9 37.9 March
1899-00 38.2 31.8 30.3 33.4 December
1900-01 36.3 32.5 26.3 38.4 March
1901-02 35.7 30.6 29.7 44.4 March
1902-03 32.5 30.4 33.2 47.8 March
1903-04 31.5 25.3 25.4 36.4 March
1904-05 30.3 29.3 24.8 40.4 March
1905-06 38.9 38.4 32.8 35.6 December
1906-07 34.2 34.9 25.9 42.5 March
1907-08 38.8 33.5 27.5 41.4 March
1908-09 37.6 34.7 37.7 37.8 March
1909-10 32.4 31.1 30.0 43.0 March
1910-11 30.0 36.3 31.3 34.7 January
1911-12 39.4 23.7 28.8 37.6 December
1912-13 39.3 40.9 31.3 44.8 March
1913-14 38.7 31.5 25.4 36.5 December
1914-15 31.6 34.5 35.9 36.8 March
1915-16 33.5 36.0 27.9 32.4 January
1916-17 34.0 32.9 28.3 39.3 March
1917-18 25.0 21.7 30.4 42.1 March
1918-19 39.4 35.6 34.9 43.3 March
1919-20 30.2 23.4 28.5 39.9 March
1920-21 37.3 33.4 34.0 48.4 March
1921-22 32.5 28.2 33.6 41.0 March
1922-23 33.6 30.0 26.2 36.8 March
1923-24 42.0 32.7 28.9 39.2 December
1924-25 34.0 28.4 37.9 44.2 March
1925-26 34.8 32.0 29.2 35.7 March
1926-27 28.9 30.9 36.4 43.0 March
1927-28 36.7 34.0 33.0 38.8 March
1928-29 39.3 31.9 32.9 45.1 March
1929-30 35.8 33.3 37.0 40.3 March
1930-31 34.6 32.8 33.9 40.3 March
1931-32 41.0 43.2 36.1 37.3 January
1932-33 39.1 40.3 34.1 38.4 January
1933-34 32.7 34.7 19.9 37.3 March
1934-35 33.4 28.9 31.2 43.4 March
1935-36 30.0 29.3 25.7 45.2 March
1936-37 38.6 40.2 34.8 36.5 January
1937-38 35.4 32.1 35.4 44.2 March
1938-39 37.0 32.2 37.0 39.2 March
1939-40 36.9 25.0 32.9 35.1 December
1940-41 38.4 29.4 31.1 35.9 December
1941-42 38.3 30.7 29.7 43.0 March
1942-43 31.1 30.8 34.6 40.2 March
1943-44 33.0 33.9 33.2 37.6 March
1944-45 32.4 25.1 33.9 51.1 March
1945-46 31.0 34.1 31.7 49.8 March
1946-47 37.9 37.2 29.3 37.8 December
1947-48 34.0 25.4 30.7 42.1 March
1948-49 38.3 38.6 38.6 42.9 March
1949-50 39.4 41.4 31.6 36.4 January
1950-51 35.0 36.5 36.2 41.5 March
1951-52 38.6 36.2 36.2 40.2 March
1952-53 38.4 37.6 38.4 43.4 March
1953-54 41.3 30.8 40.1 41.6 March
1954-55 35.9 31.0 35.0 41.7 March
1955-56 29.7 32.0 36.6 37.4 March
1956-57 40.9 28.5 37.3 41.9 March
1957-58 40.2 31.9 27.4 40.3 March
1958-59 29.4 31.1 32.1 40.1 March
1959-60 38.4 33.9 36.3 33.3 December
1960-61 30.9 27.7 36.7 41.5 March
1961-62 35.5 32.6 31.8 43.1 March
1962-63 31.5 30.1 28.3 43.7 March
1963-64 31.2 35.7 32.9 43.1 March
1964-65 36.4 29.7 33.9 40.0 March
1965-66 40.5 32.2 35.1 42.7 March
1966-67 35.7 37.4 29.2 37.6 March
1967-68 38.2 26.7 28.9 43.3 March
1968-69 34.3 31.8 32.6 40.1 March
1969-70 33.4 25.1 33.0 38.7 March
1970-71 34.4 27.0 35.1 40.1 March
1971-72 40.8 35.1 31.4 39.8 December
1972-73 38.5 35.5 32.5 46.4 March
1973-74 39.0 35.3 31.7 42.1 March
1974-75 39.4 37.3 35.8 40.2 March
1975-76 35.9 27.4 39.9 44.4 March
1976-77 29.9 22.1 33.5 46.8 March
1977-78 35.7 28.0 27.2 39.0 March
1978-79 38.9 33.6 25.5 46.9 March
1979-80 41.1 33.7 31.4 41.2 March
1980-81 32.5 26.3 39.3 42.3 March
1981-82 36.5 26.1 35.3 42.0 March
1982-83 42.8 34.5 36.4 44.0 March
1983-84 35.2 29.9 40.6 36.7 February
1984-85 43.8 28.8 36.6 45.8 March
1985-86 34.2 34.1 32.0 45.1 March
1986-87 39.0 32.3 33.2 45.2 March
1987-88 39.5 29.5 35.0 43.6 March
1988-89 35.9 37.4 34.5 42.4 March
1989-90 25.9 41.4 39.8 45.1 March
1990-91 42.6 34.9 40.0 44.6 March
1991-92 39.6 35.7 36.4 40.0 March
1992-93 37.9 36.3 30.8 39.7 March
1993-94 37.3 25.6 30.6 40.7 March
1994-95 42.2 37.5 31.6 45.0 March
1995-96 32.4 30.5 33.9 38.9 March
1996-97 41.3 32.2 40.0 41.9 March
1997-98 38.3 40.0 40.6 45.4 March
1998-99 43.2 33.9 38.9 42.5 December
1999-00 40.0 31.3 37.3 47.2 March
2000-01 31.1 33.6 35.9 39.6 March
2001-02 44.1 39.9 40.6 44.1 March*
2002-03 36.0 27.5 30.1 43.1 March
2003-04 37.6 24.7 35.0 43.5 March
2004-05 38.4 31.3 36.5 39.4 March
2005-06 35.3 40.9 35.7 43.1 March
2006-07 43.6 37.5 28.2 42.2 December
2007-08 37.0 36.5 35.8 42.6 March
2008-09 38.1 27.9 36.7 42.4 March
2009-10 35.9 32.5 33.1 48.2 March
2010-11 32.8 29.7 36.0 42.3 March
2011-12 43.3 37.3 40.9 50.9 March
2012-13 41.5 35.1 33.9 40.1 December
2013-14 38.5 28.6 31.6 37.7 December
2014-15 40.5 29.9 23.9 38.1 December
2015-16 50.8 34.5 37.7 48.9 December
2016-17 38.3 38.0 41.6 39.2 February
2017-18 35.0 31.7 42.0 40.2 February
2018-19 40.1 32.5 36.2 TBD

*While December 2001 and March 2002 both had 44.1, the tiebreaker goes to March 2002 since the March 2002 average was 44.145 and the December 2001 average was 44.065


Out of these 149 cold seasons, here is the tally of how many each month has:

December: 22
January: 9
February: 5
March: 113

Given how March has been the warmest 113 out of 149 times (or 75.8%), it's crazy to think it did not win out any of the past six years.  From 2012-13 to 2015-16, December won out and in both 2016-17 and 2017-18, February won out, which had happened only three times before 2016.

I brought this up last December but I think it's worth repeating.  If the high/low temperatures from the 26th-28th from the Channel 7 weather forecast verify, 36.2 would be the mean temperature for February 2019, making the 40.1 from December the highest mean monthly temperature in the December 2018-February 2019 range.  March looks to start out on the chilly side.  In fact, March 3rd seems to start a bitterly cold stretch for March.  Not sure how long it lasts, but it's quite cold.  

While long range outlooks do have it warming up the east around mid-March, can we really trust them this far out?  I mean, if they were right half the time between mid-December and early February, we'd have 50"+ of snow right now.  

If the projected warmth on the long range models is indeed a dud, and the cold weather rolls through late-March, we could be looking at the seventh consecutive year in which March does NOT win out in the set of four winter months shown above.  I mean, it just has to be below December's 40.1 and last March was at 40.2 while several Marches since 2013 were below 40.

March winning out in 113 of 143 years from 1870-2012, but not since 2012 is crazy to be honest.

Note that the 2018-19 row in the quote was edited in.

Great post and stats Mike. I've noted in several posts this season how March has been the snowiest month in NYC in three of the past four winters, I had overlooked the temperature data.

It's fascinating to note as you did that of the four winter months, December through March, that December and February have taken turns being the warmest months in the last 6 years. Let's hope the trend continues this March, Othelias reputation is riding on it.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

With Officially 4.0 inches of snow in Central Park today NYC is now at 15.5 inches for the season which ties this season for 116th place out of the last 150 years of record keeping, tied with the winter of 1970/71.  

That winter was much colder than this winter, although not exceptionally so. What did fall stuck around a lot longer, January at 26.9° was the cold month that winter and with 11.4 inches of snow by far the snowiest. December at 34.4° and February at 35.1° were both near average for that period. March averaged 40.1° which is historically average, but a few degrees below what our new averages (1981-2010) are for March.

NYC now needs only 22.7 inches of snow in the next 22 months for the new 30 year average, which will be calculated in January 2021, to reach 30 inches per year. The current average snowfall for the period January 1991-March 2019 is now 30.5 inches. The 150 year average in NYC is 28.8 inches.

March now has 5.4 inches of snow for the first two days of the month, and only needs 1.1 inches by the end of the month to become the snowiest month of the winter season for the fourth time in the last five years.

This winter season now becomes only the second season in history that November and March will be the two snowiest months. The only other time this happened was the Winter of 1989-90.

[Math23x7]

Recall my Excel chart of NYC seasonal snow statistics labeling snow seasons in terms of "record lowest", "much below normal", "below normal", "near normal", "above normal", "much above normal", and "record highest".

On Saturday March 2nd, 1996, CPK got about four inches of snow, putting the 1995-96 season from "much above normal" to "record highest"

On Saturday March 2nd, 2019, CPK got about four inches of snow, putting the 2018-19 season from "much below normal" to "below normal"

[Sponsored content]