Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[sroc4]

Biggest prob with Thursday threat is models are too fast with the N energy, and or too slow ejecting the S energy out of the SW (this has been the case all winter)

We absolutely need to see modeling speed up and bundle the southern energy better or slow down the timing of the N energy.  If the N energy comes in ahead of the S energy it will act to deflect the energy S&E keeping the trough pos tilted and the flow progressive.  If it comes in behind it it should interact with the S energy and cause the trough to go neutral then neg and bring it up the coast.  Plain and simple.  Unfort models seem to be coming to the consensus to the former scenario.  Still time left however to monitor the trends.  All energy is onshore this afternoon so the 00zs should be telling.

Here is the difference at H5 from yesterdays 12z where the euro had the LP up the coast vs todays 12z where it is OTS.  

[jmanley32]

Biggest prob with Thursday threat is models are too fast with the N energy, and or too slow ejecting the S energy out of the SW (this has been the case all winter)

We absolutely need to see modeling speed up and bundle the southern energy better or slow down the timing of the N energy.  If the N energy comes in ahead of the S energy it will act to deflect the energy S&E keeping the trough pos tilted and the flow progressive.  If it comes in behind it it should interact with the S energy and cause the trough to go neutral then neg and bring it up the coast.  Plain and simple.  Unfort models seem to be coming to the consensus to the former scenario.  Still time left however to monitor the trends.  All energy is onshore this afternoon so the 00zs should be telling.  

Here is the difference at H5 from yesterdays 12z where the euro had the LP up the coast vs todays 12z where it is OTS.  

bernie was say same in his video yesterday. I really hope that s energy can get out ahead. Gfs has been steadfast on hold it way back. Euro is close.

[rb924119]

Hey, I just have a question for our Long Range Crew (Frank, Scott, Tom, Armando, etc.). I was asked to do an extended outlook for weeks 2 and 3, giving as much detail as possible, as part of a job interview. I have never really done one of these before and therefore have very little experience. I did my best and am personally very happy with how this turned out, but if any, or all, of you wouldn't mind, I would LOVE to get your feedback on it. Because this was asked of ME, I do not necessarily ask for corrections, as this is what I truly feel is going to occur. Instead, I am only asking your opinions on whether it makes sense and is coherent. I know you are all very much experienced with this stuff, which is why I am asking, and once I submit the piece, would absolutely love to hear what you all have to say. Again, however, I would like this submission to be critiqued with as little correction as possible. If you do have suggestions, please just give me a hint (at most) and let me discover it for myself (if I can), as it would weigh very heavily on my soul if just given the answer. If you do not wish to comment, I do not mind at all, as this is a potentially touchy subject, so if that is the case, please at least enjoy the read as to where I think this pattern is headed. THANK YOU ALL:

1. The medium range weather pattern is going to be quite changeable during weeks two and three. Coming into the start of Week 2 (Day 7), the colder pattern that we will be entering this coming week will be on the way out. The eastern U.S. trough will begin to slide eastward in response to forcing mechanisms associated with the recent stretch of anomalous easterly flow across the equatorial tropical Pacific Southern Oscillation Index, SOI), rapid decay of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and related pattern alignment as it continues to weaken through Phases 8/1, the preceding Stratospheric progression which allowed the Stratospheric Polar Vortex to deepen and reconsolidate over the past week or so, and finally, the resultant North American pressure pattern that results from the combination of these factors. Instead of having anomalous ridging across the Canadian provinces and parts of the Arctic with lower pressures across the CONUS, creating a direct discharge from the higher latitudes into the East, these pressure fields will begin to reverse around Day 7, and allow an influx of warmer air to start taking over.

Days 10-13 offer quite an interesting series of events for the entirety of the North American continent, especially the eastern CONUS. This period appears to offer a significant storm threat for the eastern portions of the country, as the large-scale regime begins to change again. As the once coherent MJO wave continues to propagate through Phase 1 and eventually decay altogether, this will not provide any pattern support for any solution, as its signal becomes much too weak and overridden by more substantial factors. Maintaining attention on the equatorial tropical Pacific (SOI), however, an anomalous bias of westerly winds in this region looks to begin taking shape around Day 3, and generally persist through the foreseeable future, with some short stretches of changeability and anomalous easterly flow across the region. Given typical lag-correlations of approximately seven to days, this fits well with the regime change prognosticated during the Day 10-13 period.

Concomitantly with the anomalous westerly wind bias there, the Stratospheric progression in the short-term and beyond also heavily favors this period for change. A coherent Wave-2 attack is already in the process of starting, and will begin to attack the already perturbed Stratospheric Vortex over the coming days. Additionally, a Wave-1 precursor pattern has already set up across the NAO domain, which is the second most-favored region for Stratospheric attack, and will be maintained through approximately Day 6 before breaking down. With the all but certain positive interference of these Vortex attacks, this is a strong signal for another significant Vortex disruption and subsequent Tropospheric response. With the Wave-1 precursor pattern having already been established for some time now, the very short waiting period until the Wave-2 event begins, and the fact that the Vortex is already strongly perturbed, the effects of these attacks will not take long to be reflected in the Tropospheric pattern; likely 10-14 days at most. Given this information, there is strong support for a regime change, during the Day 10-13/14 timeframe, and is already showing a strong signal in the Global Ensembles.

The resulting pressure patterns across the North American continent match the expected patterns, with anomalous ridging returning to the Canadian Provinces and lower pressure returning the CONUS, which will again lead to direct discharge of Canadian air southward. As a result, I am expecting this period to have a warm bias through the front two days, or so, with a cold bias through the remainder across the East, as well as the threat of a significant storm occurring in the region to usher in the pattern change as energy cuts beneath the eastern North American ridge shifting northward in response to the forcing of the factors mentioned above.

Week three (Days 14-21) will likely be biased cold across the East, as will be shortly discussed, but will feature a somewhat changeable pattern. Given the seasonal tendency for the Pacific jet extension to overwhelm any pattern amplification that we have seen thus far across North America, as well as the leeway for a changeable SOI biased westerly, this supports the idea of a relatively changeable pattern across the CONUS (and by default, the East) as energy intermittently cuts beneath any western ridge, and results in a split-flow regime, with maybe a period of three to five days of one particular cold stretch. However, given the overall westerly bias expected in the Pacific, the Stratospheric progression, and the resultant pressure anomalies of North America, I expect the coldest of the anomalies to centered in the East. The MJO is a wildcard in this period, although any prolonged change in the tropical Pacific that could restart the MJO wave progression would likely occur late enough in this period so that any effects would be muted or non-existent altogether. In summary, then, I expect Days 14-21 to be biased cold across the East, with a few chances at significant winter storms in the region thanks to the active pattern progression, possible split-flow regime, and cold bias.

[sroc4]

Ray when does it need to be in by? I will have to sit and read it later as I am at work all day

[SENJsnowman]

I know you didn't solicit my advice on this, but my area of expertise lies in helping students write with clarity, as well as with proper style, structure, thesis development and critical analysis. From each of those perspectives, your piece is quite strong.

If I were to offer just a bit of constructive feedback, it's that many of your sentences are quite long and seem to string together a multitude of thoughts. You would not lose any of the sophistication by splitting some sentences into two, sometimes three separate sentences, and yet this may offer even greater clarity for the reader. Of course, you may also be writing according to industry parlance, which I am not at all familiar with.

I hope you don't mind my input. I'm just trying to give back a little, since I've gotten so much insight and entertainment from you and the other contributors in the last few weeks. FWIW and I hope it helps!

[Dunnzoo]

Just a few grammatical items, (look for 2 small red marks!) and I agree, I think you can break up some of the segments or use another format, maybe bullet points. But great read! Good luck!

Hey, I just have a question for our Long Range Crew (Frank, Scott, Tom, Armando, etc.). I was asked to do an extended outlook for weeks 2 and 3, giving as much detail as possible, as part of a job interview. I have never really done one of these before and therefore have very little experience. I did my best and am personally very happy with how this turned out, but if any, or all, of you wouldn't mind, I would LOVE to get your feedback on it. Because this was asked of ME, I do not necessarily ask for corrections, as this is what I truly feel is going to occur. Instead, I am only asking your opinions on whether it makes sense and is coherent. I know you are all very much experienced with this stuff, which is why I am asking, and once I submit the piece, would absolutely love to hear what you all have to say. Again, however, I would like this submission to be critiqued with as little correction as possible. If you do have suggestions, please just give me a hint (at most) and let me discover it for myself (if I can), as it would weigh very heavily on my soul if just given the answer. If you do not wish to comment, I do not mind at all, as this is a potentially touchy subject, so if that is the case, please at least enjoy the read as to where I think this pattern is headed. THANK YOU ALL:

1. The medium range weather pattern is going to be quite changeable during weeks two and three. Coming into the start of Week 2 (Day 7), the colder pattern that we will be entering this coming week will be on the way out. The eastern U.S. trough will begin to slide eastward in response to forcing mechanisms associated with the recent stretch of anomalous easterly flow across the equatorial tropical Pacific Southern Oscillation Index, (SOI), rapid decay of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and related pattern alignment as it continues to weaken through Phases 8/1, the preceding Stratospheric progression which allowed the Stratospheric Polar Vortex to deepen and reconsolidate over the past week or so, and finally, the resultant North American pressure pattern that results from the combination of these factors. Instead of having anomalous ridging across the Canadian provinces and parts of the Arctic with lower pressures across the CONUS, creating a direct discharge from the higher latitudes into the East, these pressure fields will begin to reverse around Day 7, and allow an influx of warmer air to start taking over.

Days 10-13 offer quite an interesting series of events for the entirety of the North American continent, especially the eastern CONUS. This period appears to offer a significant storm threat for the eastern portions of the country, as the large-scale regime begins to change again. As the once coherent MJO wave continues to propagate through Phase 1 and eventually decay altogether, this will not provide any pattern support for any solution, as its signal becomes much too weak and overridden by more substantial factors. Maintaining attention on the equatorial tropical Pacific (SOI), however, an anomalous bias of westerly winds in this region looks to begin taking shape around Day 3, and generally persist through the foreseeable future, with some short stretches of changeability and anomalous easterly flow across the region. Given typical lag-correlations of approximately seven to ? days, this fits well with the regime change prognosticated during the Day 10-13 period.

Concomitantly with the anomalous westerly wind bias there, the Stratospheric progression in the short-term and beyond also heavily favors this period for change. A coherent Wave-2 attack is already in the process of starting, and will begin to attack the already perturbed Stratospheric Vortex over the coming days. Additionally, a Wave-1 precursor pattern has already set up across the NAO domain, which is the second most-favored region for Stratospheric attack, and will be maintained through approximately Day 6 before breaking down. With the all but certain positive interference of these Vortex attacks, this is a strong signal for another significant Vortex disruption and subsequent Tropospheric response. With the Wave-1 precursor pattern having already been established for some time now, the very short waiting period until the Wave-2 event begins, and the fact that the Vortex is already strongly perturbed, the effects of these attacks will not take long to be reflected in the Tropospheric pattern; likely 10-14 days at most. Given this information, there is strong support for a regime change, during the Day 10-13/14 timeframe, and is already showing a strong signal in the Global Ensembles.

The resulting pressure patterns across the North American continent match the expected patterns, with anomalous ridging returning to the Canadian Provinces and lower pressure returning the CONUS, which will again lead to direct discharge of Canadian air southward. As a result, I am expecting this period to have a warm bias through the front two days, or so, with a cold bias through the remainder across the East, as well as the threat of a significant storm occurring in the region to usher in the pattern change as energy cuts beneath the eastern North American ridge shifting northward in response to the forcing of the factors mentioned above.

Week three (Days 14-21) will likely be biased cold across the East, as will be shortly discussed, but will feature a somewhat changeable pattern. Given the seasonal tendency for the Pacific jet extension to overwhelm any pattern amplification that we have seen thus far across North America, as well as the leeway for a changeable SOI biased westerly, this supports the idea of a relatively changeable pattern across the CONUS (and by default, the East) as energy intermittently cuts beneath any western ridge, and results in a split-flow regime, with maybe a period of three to five days of one particular cold stretch. However, given the overall westerly bias expected in the Pacific, the Stratospheric progression, and the resultant pressure anomalies of North America, I expect the coldest of the anomalies to centered in the East. The MJO is a wildcard in this period, although any prolonged change in the tropical Pacific that could restart the MJO wave progression would likely occur late enough in this period so that any effects would be muted or non-existent altogether. In summary, then, I expect Days 14-21 to be biased cold across the East, with a few chances at significant winter storms in the region thanks to the active pattern progression, possible split-flow regime, and cold bias.

[rb924119]

Ray when does it need to be in by?  I will have to sit and read it later as I am at work all day

Well, technically, not for a week, but other parts correspond to the forecast of tomorrow's and Monday's storm for a couple of Northeast locations. Even though only those parts need to be submitted before Monday, since that is the actual date in question, I'd also love to just hand the whole thing in at once (strongly dislike doing things in pieces lol when I start something I fully intend to finish aha). However, I wish I would have just submitted my Monday forecast parts when I made the forecast two days ago, as everything appears to be on unnervingly perfect track (of course -_- lol), but you darn well know if everything would have busted ahaha thanks, man, I truly appreciate your input! To everyone else who has also commented, thank you so much and your constructive criticism is very well received!!

[jmanley32]

Good lord LR GFS for 23-25th, megalord storm!!! Mugs you been screaming about this date, mostly rain at this pt but 10-12 days to go long time, but if its all snow and as intense as shown it will trump the snowicane for maine tomorrow.

[skinsfan1177]

Honestly I'm not thrilled about long range let alone 2 weeks from now. Thursday Storm not looking good i will give it until tomorrow.

[nutleyblizzard]

Honestly I'm not thrilled about long range let alone 2 weeks from now. Thursday Storm not looking good i will give it until tomorrow.

I beg to differ. There were some improvements last night with the Thursday storm. CMC had a slower/deeper northern trough with faster southern stream. EURO had a slightly better trough orientation. If you remember, our previous snowstorm started to trend in our favor around this time last weekend. Pattern is conducive for a big storm. We can't let our guards down on this one.

[skinsfan1177]

Honestly I'm not thrilled about long range let alone 2 weeks from now. Thursday Storm not looking good i will give it until tomorrow.

I beg to differ. There were some improvements last night with the Thursday storm. CMC had a slower/deeper northern trough with faster southern stream. EURO had a slightly better trough orientation. If you remember, our previous snowstorm started to trend in our favor around this time last weekend. Pattern is conducive for a big storm. We can't let our guards down on this one.

As I said I will give it to Monday but not feeling confident atm. Yes still days away

[nutleyblizzard]

Honestly I'm not thrilled about long range let alone 2 weeks from now. Thursday Storm not looking good i will give it until tomorrow.

I beg to differ. There were some improvements last night with the Thursday storm. CMC had a slower/deeper northern trough with faster southern stream. EURO had a slightly better trough orientation. If you remember, our previous snowstorm started to trend in our favor around this time last weekend. Pattern is conducive for a big storm. We can't let our guards down on this one.

As I said I will give it to Monday but not feeling confident atm. Yes still days away

Agreed. We need to see significant changes by tomorrow nights 0z runs the latest. Tellies are in our favor... I give it a 50/50 chance right now.

[Guest]

Good lord LR GFS for 23-25th, megalord storm!!! Mugs you been screaming about this date, mostly rain at this pt but 10-12 days to go long time, but if its all snow and as intense as shown it will trump the snowicane for maine tomorrow.

While we all hope for snow, if I understand this correctly (and somebody please correct me if I don't) it doesn't look promising. The AO and NAO are both going positive while the PNA is weakening. Here is a link to the NWS forecast.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

[Dunnzoo]

31° and now snow and sleet

[Guest]

Thursday looks to be a non-event. Red Sox Suck getting a roidzilla today and NWS advertising a significant warm up with much above normal temps. Beginning in about a week which would make the 23rd snowicane threat a huge rainstorm. This could be our swan song. Fat lady warming up and just about ready

[sroc4]

Hey, I just have a question for our Long Range Crew (Frank, Scott, Tom, Armando, etc.). I was asked to do an extended outlook for weeks 2 and 3, giving as much detail as possible, as part of a job interview. I have never really done one of these before and therefore have very little experience. I did my best and am personally very happy with how this turned out, but if any, or all, of you wouldn't mind, I would LOVE to get your feedback on it. Because this was asked of ME, I do not necessarily ask for corrections, as this is what I truly feel is going to occur. Instead, I am only asking your opinions on whether it makes sense and is coherent. I know you are all very much experienced with this stuff, which is why I am asking, and once I submit the piece, would absolutely love to hear what you all have to say. Again, however, I would like this submission to be critiqued with as little correction as possible. If you do have suggestions, please just give me a hint (at most) and let me discover it for myself (if I can), as it would weigh very heavily on my soul if just given the answer. If you do not wish to comment, I do not mind at all, as this is a potentially touchy subject, so if that is the case, please at least enjoy the read as to where I think this pattern is headed. THANK YOU ALL:

1. The medium range weather pattern is going to be quite changeable during weeks two and three. Coming into the start of Week 2 (Day 7), the colder pattern that we will be entering this coming week will be on the way out. The eastern U.S. trough will begin to slide eastward in response to forcing mechanisms associated with the recent stretch of anomalous easterly flow across the equatorial tropical Pacific Southern Oscillation Index, SOI), rapid decay of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and related pattern alignment as it continues to weaken through Phases 8/1, the preceding Stratospheric progression which allowed the Stratospheric Polar Vortex to deepen and reconsolidate over the past week or so, and finally, the resultant North American pressure pattern that results from the combination of these factors. Instead of having anomalous ridging across the Canadian provinces and parts of the Arctic with lower pressures across the CONUS, creating a direct discharge from the higher latitudes into the East, these pressure fields will begin to reverse around Day 7, and allow an influx of warmer air to start taking over.

Days 10-13 offer quite an interesting series of events for the entirety of the North American continent, especially the eastern CONUS. This period appears to offer a significant storm threat for the eastern portions of the country, as the large-scale regime begins to change again. As the once coherent MJO wave continues to propagate through Phase 1 and eventually decay altogether, this will not provide any pattern support for any solution, as its signal becomes much too weak and overridden by more substantial factors. Maintaining attention on the equatorial tropical Pacific (SOI), however, an anomalous bias of westerly winds in this region looks to begin taking shape around Day 3, and generally persist through the foreseeable future, with some short stretches of changeability and anomalous easterly flow across the region. Given typical lag-correlations of approximately seven to days, this fits well with the regime change prognosticated during the Day 10-13 period.

Concomitantly with the anomalous westerly wind bias there, the Stratospheric progression in the short-term and beyond also heavily favors this period for change. A coherent Wave-2 attack is already in the process of starting, and will begin to attack the already perturbed Stratospheric Vortex over the coming days. Additionally, a Wave-1 precursor pattern has already set up across the NAO domain, which is the second most-favored region for Stratospheric attack, and will be maintained through approximately Day 6 before breaking down. With the all but certain positive interference of these Vortex attacks, this is a strong signal for another significant Vortex disruption and subsequent Tropospheric response. With the Wave-1 precursor pattern having already been established for some time now, the very short waiting period until the Wave-2 event begins, and the fact that the Vortex is already strongly perturbed, the effects of these attacks will not take long to be reflected in the Tropospheric pattern; likely 10-14 days at most. Given this information, there is strong support for a regime change, during the Day 10-13/14 timeframe, and is already showing a strong signal in the Global Ensembles.

The resulting pressure patterns across the North American continent match the expected patterns, with anomalous ridging returning to the Canadian Provinces and lower pressure returning the CONUS, which will again lead to direct discharge of Canadian air southward. As a result, I am expecting this period to have a warm bias through the front two days, or so, with a cold bias through the remainder across the East, as well as the threat of a significant storm occurring in the region to usher in the pattern change as energy cuts beneath the eastern North American ridge shifting northward in response to the forcing of the factors mentioned above.

Week three (Days 14-21) will likely be biased cold across the East, as will be shortly discussed, but will feature a somewhat changeable pattern. Given the seasonal tendency for the Pacific jet extension to overwhelm any pattern amplification that we have seen thus far across North America, as well as the leeway for a changeable SOI biased westerly, this supports the idea of a relatively changeable pattern across the CONUS (and by default, the East) as energy intermittently cuts beneath any western ridge, and results in a split-flow regime, with maybe a period of three to five days of one particular cold stretch. However, given the overall westerly bias expected in the Pacific, the Stratospheric progression, and the resultant pressure anomalies of North America, I expect the coldest of the anomalies to centered in the East. The MJO is a wildcard in this period, although any prolonged change in the tropical Pacific that could restart the MJO wave progression would likely occur late enough in this period so that any effects would be muted or non-existent altogether. In summary, then, I expect Days 14-21 to be biased cold across the East, with a few chances at significant winter storms in the region thanks to the active pattern progression, possible split-flow regime, and cold bias.

RAY check your PM.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Thursday looks to be a non-event. Red Sox Suck getting a roidzilla today and NWS advertising a significant warm up with much above normal temps. Beginning  in about a week which would make the 23rd snowicane threat a huge rainstorm. This could be our swan song. Fat lady warming up and just about ready

Attaboy throw in that towel and bring in another Godzillla.

[Guest]

Not throwing in the towel just yet CP. but it doesn't look good. I'm looking forward to trout fishing and golf (I'm the hs coach) which starts in mid march

[SNOW MAN]

Not throwing in the towel just yet CP. but it doesn't look good. I'm looking forward to trout fishing and golf (I'm the hs coach) which starts in mid march

CP for this statement I think we should consider revoking his OTI membership. I think you and Doc should take it under review, LOL !

[nutleyblizzard]

We have been seeing a number of very intense storms in the gulf of Maine this season. I don't know, but I have this feeling that winter is going to throw us one of those snow megabombs in our latitude before winters end.

[amugs]

It never looks good for Syo until he sees 6" plus snow in his back yard LOL!
Needs permanent visa for OTI Sanitarium ONLY!

[sroc4]

Not throwing in the towel just yet CP. but it doesn't look good. I'm looking forward to trout fishing and golf (I'm the hs coach) which starts in mid march

I find you being a golf coach slightly humorous and ironic. I mean golf is a very mental game. Those who remain even and level headed tend to do better. See where I'm going with this. Lol. Playing with you Jim.

[skinsfan1177]

The problem is the sw energy like always with this winter not ejecting in time or when it does it's not consolidated. Not looking good for NYC south atm.

[dkodgis]

Snow this Wed? Any takers?

[rb924119]

RAY check your PM.  

Scott, thank you so much!!! I just sent you another PM in response with a quick follow-up.

[Guest]

Ironically when I golf and fish I am really calm and levelheaded. Doesn't fit the rest of my personality

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Very serious stuff Snowman, I moved the conversation to the OTI thread.

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