Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[jmanley32]

To me the eur has  to gfs global

Thats what I think,but boy would that be the revival for the GFS this year after doing so badly.  And its still so fr off.

[rb924119]

Atlantic ridge is much less expansive versus 00z, so this will likely come up the coast

I know its kinda way to early to say theres any trends but the Euro and GFS seem to be coming inbto better agreement and even the CMC came further east.  This is a true test of your skills rb, waiting to see if ur right.

I agree, 100%. Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Right now, it's looking like I'm wrong and will have to change my thinking, but I'll give it the benefit of the doubt yet. Don't forget, I did still use the modeling at that time, so my analysis was based on how the models were portraying the pattern and how I thought things would evolve at that point. The models are changing their looks, so you have to accept that lol you can't stay rigid hahaha you see what I'm saying?

[aiannone]

Atlantic ridge is much less expansive versus 00z, so this will likely come up the coast

I know its kinda way to early to say theres any trends but the Euro and GFS seem to be coming inbto better agreement and even the CMC came further east.  This is a true test of your skills rb, waiting to see if ur right.

I agree, 100%. Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Right now, it's looking like I'm wrong and will have to change my thinking, but I'll give it the benefit of the doubt yet. Don't forget, I did still use the modeling at that time, so my analysis was based on how the models were portraying the pattern and how I thought things would evolve at that point. The models are changing their looks, so you have to accept that lol you can't stay rigid hahaha you see what I'm saying?

And what was your prediction rb?

[aiannone]

Bahamas are fu*ked on this run lol

[jmanley32]

danger danger FL! 925mb!

[jmanley32]

Atlantic ridge is much less expansive versus 00z, so this will likely come up the coast

I know its kinda way to early to say theres any trends but the Euro and GFS seem to be coming inbto better agreement and even the CMC came further east.  This is a true test of your skills rb, waiting to see if ur right.

I agree, 100%. Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Right now, it's looking like I'm wrong and will have to change my thinking, but I'll give it the benefit of the doubt yet. Don't forget, I did still use the modeling at that time, so my analysis was based on how the models were portraying the pattern and how I thought things would evolve at that point. The models are changing their looks, so you have to accept that lol you can't stay rigid hahaha you see what I'm saying?

Oh yes and im not busting ur chops, just if you see a change def let us know ur new thoughts!

[jmanley32]

Will this ride the coast after 240 or can that not be deduced? Def long ways off on tracking this one for any effects to our area.

[rb924119]

Atlantic ridge is much less expansive versus 00z, so this will likely come up the coast

I know its kinda way to early to say theres any trends but the Euro and GFS seem to be coming inbto better agreement and even the CMC came further east.  This is a true test of your skills rb, waiting to see if ur right.

I agree, 100%. Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Right now, it's looking like I'm wrong and will have to change my thinking, but I'll give it the benefit of the doubt yet. Don't forget, I did still use the modeling at that time, so my analysis was based on how the models were portraying the pattern and how I thought things would evolve at that point. The models are changing their looks, so you have to accept that lol you can't stay rigid hahaha you see what I'm saying?

Oh yes and im not busting ur chops, just if you see a change def let us know ur new thoughts!

Again, I know you're not lmao You worry too much

[rb924119]

Atlantic ridge is much less expansive versus 00z, so this will likely come up the coast

I know its kinda way to early to say theres any trends but the Euro and GFS seem to be coming inbto better agreement and even the CMC came further east.  This is a true test of your skills rb, waiting to see if ur right.

I agree, 100%. Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Right now, it's looking like I'm wrong and will have to change my thinking, but I'll give it the benefit of the doubt yet. Don't forget, I did still use the modeling at that time, so my analysis was based on how the models were portraying the pattern and how I thought things would evolve at that point. The models are changing their looks, so you have to accept that lol you can't stay rigid hahaha you see what I'm saying?

And what was your prediction rb?

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMFlQRk5QYThhaWs

[jmanley32]

wow 920mb headed right for SE coast.

[aiannone]

Atlantic ridge is much less expansive versus 00z, so this will likely come up the coast

I know its kinda way to early to say theres any trends but the Euro and GFS seem to be coming inbto better agreement and even the CMC came further east.  This is a true test of your skills rb, waiting to see if ur right.

I agree, 100%. Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Right now, it's looking like I'm wrong and will have to change my thinking, but I'll give it the benefit of the doubt yet. Don't forget, I did still use the modeling at that time, so my analysis was based on how the models were portraying the pattern and how I thought things would evolve at that point. The models are changing their looks, so you have to accept that lol you can't stay rigid hahaha you see what I'm saying?

And what was your prediction rb?

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMFlQRk5QYThhaWs

Thanks!

[rb924119]

Will this ride the coast after 240 or can that not be deduced? Def long ways off on tracking this one for any effects to our area.

I would tend to think it heads inland, but that's pure speculation.

[aiannone]

Moral of the story here is the major models like the EC not GOM at this point haha

[jmanley32]

Actually looks like Euro if went out further may hit up here or just south.

[Frank_Wx]

Started a thread on Irma

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t844-tracking-hurricane-irma#115571

[Snow88]

GFS develops another low behind Jose which would be Lee. Very active Atlantic basin.

[jmanley32]

Here we go, another possible threat? Models keep him ots but you never know, aweful close to Irma on projected path. Also note progged to become a major, and man is it close to the islands that just got destroyed, if it happens again forget ever recovering. So bad.

[amugs]

Could it get any worse for these people???

[jmanley32]

Long range gfs pulls a Sandy with Jose after hitting Bermuda also after making a loop early in the run. What a wild track

[skinsfan1177]

Also hearing a huge wave coming off African coast

[Snow88]

0z GFS has a big high pressure to the north and Jose in the Atlantic coming westward at 234.

[Snow88]

Jose stays well offshore on the 0z run because the high pressure was further east on this run.

[Snow88]

0z Euro still has Jose offshore but it would most likely come back towards the coast because of the blocking high to the east and north.

GFS is way OTS but close to Florida with Maria

A lot of action in the tropics

[frank 638]

I cannot believe how many tropical storms and hurricanes are out there and there are still more to come this year it reminds me of 2005 no we had so many hurricanes

[Snow88]

Also hearing a huge wave coming off African coast

That would be Lee

[RJB8525]

Jose is now a cat 4...150mph 942mb

[jmanley32]

Jose is now a cat 4...150mph 942mb

what!! Oh jeeze. Those poor islsnds. Is Jose a potential threat to the area guys? Seen some runs where she is but like with Irma way to far put. Just curious if it's even on anyone's mind.

[Sponsored content]