10/29 - 10/30 Nor'Easter

HI RES NAM - HOLY POOP!!

Just watched Joe Cioffi's video from this afternoon. He said western areas may see more rain than forecast on the models, to be prepared. Also, he is concerned about the winds on LI.

That nam looked to move east. Very small area of the sight is dealing with the bad winds. I am thankful for that. Hopefully it moves more east and spares everyone

Dunnzoo wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:I'm confused so why is NYC metro not included in the warning
 Do you think they will be posted for the area? Euro taken verbatim has hww winds into City and Westchester.

jman don't take the models verbatim, you'll make yourself crazy. it looks like the storm stays east, that's why there is more concern for LI.

Zoo I beg to differ with this. You riding NWS (?) and we all know how cautious they are. This storm is coming right into ACY area tomorrow - EPS , EURO, GEFS, UKIE, CMC, RGEM all have it there as does JB - the best winds will be east and it keeps trending more west with subsequent runs. NWS is being very cautious so as to not cause a Sandy post partem stress panic. You have a huge trough going N tilt in the OHRV region with a massive jet streak overhead. A phase 8 on the MJO helping steer this N once it gets to OBX. Phase 8 is a N NW steering component for Coastals and you have a nice PNA out west
Time will tell but for them (NWS) to post a statement at 3:18 for the NYC Metro areas about wind gusts around 60mph tells me they are concerned for our area as well or else they would have held off till morning.
If it doesn't then I will man up apologize and eat crow.

@Epayne - it is going to be pretty bad looks at the scroll 40- 50mph winds will bring trees down around here with a slug of 2-3" rainfall amounts.

amugs wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Mugs look at he I believe 42 of euro max gusts holy crap 95 mph plus over all li. 60 to 80 NYC area and north. Inching west on the worst winds. That's overnight sun that's go be a crazy night if true! Then backend more in the 50 to 65 moh range.

are the winds supposed to be as bad for the jersey coast as well?

Momma - get ready you are going to get pounded - YIKES!!

Euro wind map - albeit overdone a bit but look at this potential and it shifted the axis a good 35 miles more west.



BTW where the H is everyone?? this is going to be a bad arse storm one that may rival 2010 and 1992 winds

Tx mugs, I am little brown patch near the hook ...oh boy...I just put away the Halloween decorations..they do not seem to be sounding any alarms...I was living in Brazil in 1992 so was not here for that storm, will have to google.

We are not talking about NYC mugs. NYC and li looks like may get some stuff. But let's be honest this looks like nothing more then a bad storm for most of jersey. I think we just need to look at it honestly. Yes there a few areas this will be real bad for but most should be fine unless there is a change.

amugs wrote:HI RES NAM - HOLY POOP!!

Mugs I'm all in with ya I think over here in NYC area and east are close to a lock west is still go get it good maybe just not quite as severe. Keep up ur mojo! And hey if it ends up being wack it's not like that hasn't happened b4. Where's frank would like see his update.

Jman I am happy your excited but west is not going to get hit good 40 mph winds is nothing. I just don't want people in jersey to worry when it really should be a nonissue hence why I am correcting everyone. This is only a bad event for NYC and Long Island.

Mugs as I said I'm believing in you take care of whomever u feel may be wrong. We need to be well informed and so far u fone great. Would like to hear from sroc since he in li and Frank too.

Jman never said mugs was wrong this is an event for ny and Long Island but it will just be a rain storm with wind for nj other then a real small part

Also where's syo this is as close to a hurricane as he gonna get.

jmanley32 wrote:Also where's syo this is as close to a hurricane as he gonna get.

probably playing golf

Haha Joanne!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r95a3p8Os-w

Dunnzoo wrote:Haha Joanne!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r95a3p8Os-w

Lol good one.

Just got on the computer, wow 18z NAM jackpot rain for me holy crap!! Coincides with the strongest winds too so wow, and the majority falls in a short period. I understand pinpointing the exact area where the heaviest rain sets up will prolly be a nowcast as will the winds.

jmanley32 wrote:Also where's syo this is as close to a hurricane as he gonna get.

I'm here lurking. Looks like a good nor'easter. Nothing more. I'm actually pissed off because this will screw up my surf fishing. I was just getting into a good pattern.

Models still not in agreement, GFS has multiple LPs, Euro has 1. Who will be right? At this point it's wait and see.

Already approaching 3-4" by hr 24 of the NAM, coming in very wet again. 6"+ I'm sure for many

Generally 3-6"

Euro/Ukie lock in step along with CMC, RGEM, German and KMA models on one center and going N to ACY and then inland. GFS is the outlier at this time Could it trend more west? Possibly as we have seen with these storms this year.
Nam doing its Nam thing but is good with convective systems. GFS as past has shown suffers with these types of systems.
At a Halloweenie party and just checkling in.

RGEM

HRRR

Jeeze and now all of southern CT has a warning for gusts to 75 mph! I still have a watch and said 65 mph is possible. Euro was in sane. It backs the wind warnings for sure and they should include NYC area they will prolly drop the hammer soon if going with a warning or a advisory.

Euro holding strong, note TS Phillip is tracking a lot closer to the coast hence why I think it appears he gets entrained in the whole system, only NAM keeps him seperate and into cape cod. TS warnings may be needed for them if he does stay seperate.

The winds seem like they will be a bigger problem considering it’s going to rain and soften the ground all day, and all the leaves on the trees

HRRR is showing rain rates over a large area from 40-60 dbz!! Now thats tropical downpours holy poop as mugs would say lol

Scullybutcher wrote:The winds seem like they will be a bigger problem considering it’s going to rain and soften the ground all day, and all the leaves on the trees

Yes if it was winter and no leaves there would be a lot less potential for widespread power outages, which they are calling for in CT even fairfield county and possibly NYC but they have not called the warning for NYC yet but literally 25 miles east the warnings are up so I would guess they will go up.

Good pt the lighter rain through the day with increasing winds wont help the situation but we also have been so dry penetrating the ground wont be easy. I think runoff is go be more the norm.