Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[Frank_Wx]

Speaking of pieces here they are on the GFS. Ridge out west but notice what's barreling into the west coast. An Upper Level Low (ULL) which displaces the ridge further east and everything downstream turns fast. The pieces of energy you see on the eastern half of the country never come together as a result. Need this evolution to be faster so we do not have to worry about the ULL.

[hyde345]

Obviously we should be cautious when operational models spew out big storms a week out like the Euro did yesterday. I still think the Euro is the best global model overall but it has been just as inconsistent as the others lately. What's interesting is how bad and inconsistent all the models have been in the mid and long range. You would think that in the 5 to 7 day time frame they would have a better handle on things and not have 500 mile differences between runs. I personally start getting really excited about potential storms when its within 72 hours.

[rb924119]

Last night's EPS looked to begin the exact same act we saw with what was supposed to be this weekend's threat, by showing the eastern Pacific upper level low progress into the western US. While it doesn't affect the EPO ridge, it definitely mutes the PNA ridge, which slows the north-south flow through the CONUS and allows the energy associated with the PV to lag far enough behind the lead energy such that the heights along the East Coast do not rise quickly enough and we get a later interaction, as Frank said. As mentioned, the Pacific progression has been a fear since what we saw happen with the last one, and it may be rearing its ugly head again. As of now, all of the ensembles are in pretty decent agreement on this, but we will have to see if we can resurrect our chances from the grips of cruelty. Models do love to struggle with cutoff upper level lows, so this could go either way lol

[nutleyblizzard]

Speaking of pieces here they are on the GFS. Ridge out west but notice what's barreling into the west coast. An Upper Level Low (ULL) which displaces the ridge further east and everything downstream turns fast. The pieces of energy you see on the eastern half of the country never come together as a result. Need this evolution to be faster so we do not have to worry about the ULL.

...Or have the ULL back off/weaken or slow down. That would work too.

[rb924119]

So far today, though, at least with the operational runs at 12z, I'm not entirely disheartened. The GFS, even though it is faster with the Pacific upper level low, was actually very close to what we want to see. I think the obstacle it is facing in this run was not the upper level low, but the fact that it doesn't completely split the lead energy off of the trailing PV spoke ahead of this whole thing. That allows the trough associated with the lead energy to remain extremely positively tilted and not begin to "turn the corner" as quickly. The CMC/GEM had one of the most B-E-A-Uuuutiful +PNA/-EPO couplets you will ever see, as it kept the upper low well off the West Coast, and actually opens it up and re-establishes it within the main mid-level flow, which airs in further pumping the western ridge couplet, but like the GFS, keeps the lead energy attached to the trailing lead PV streamer. On both, we see our system wave to us as it heads well out to sea. HOWEVER, all we would need on both runs is to have that lead energy essentially undergo a trough split, where it breaks away from that, and we go BOOM very quickly.

[rb924119]

And to be honest, I can DEFINITELY see that being a very viable option in this particular setup, and think that the models may be trying to eject our lead energy to quickly given what's progged to happen upstream of it. Very interesting to me, to say the least.

[sroc4]

Unfort one of the big problems with why one would get disappointed is because time and time again people hear what they want to hear and not actually listen. Cp said it best. When someone raves about how good a potential looks from a week out and you think it’s a forgone conclusion happening then that’s a rookie mistake. When someone comes in here stating it’s the best pattern we have seen for a storm doesn’t mean you believe the storm is definitely happening. It’s on you to temper your own expectations because you know better. Because great patterns have not produced and crappy patterns have produced some beasts of winter storms. If the 4-6th works out great. If it doesn’t move one. Don’t blame your disappointments on anyone on here or anyone who is only on here briefly. Remember they are your disappointments and the weather does what it wants to do. No human on this planet can control it. Like my signature says go hug a human; not a weather model.

That said STOP hanging your hats on every single model run and microanalyzing individual runs. When a system or potential system is 5-7days out and beyond you HAVE to focus on trends. Sit back and discuss what 24-48hrs worth of runs tells you. Right now there have been trends all over the place. We have to accept the fact that the intensity of this cold air mass is such that a suppressed soln is highly plausible esp with an unfavorable Atlantic upper level flow. Like Frank said more than likely we must look to the west to bring this together. With all the pieces still there there is no reason to throw in the towel.

With that said im off on a fishing charter to try and catch me some Marlin, tuna, Dorado, and/or wahoo. Doc, jimmy and my other fisherman friends “tight lines”. I’ll post pictures in the banter thread if successful.

I’m adding a new quote to my signature “Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”.

[Guest]

And to be honest, I can DEFINITELY see that being a very viable option in this particular setup, and think that the models may be trying to eject our lead energy to quickly given what's progged to happen upstream of it. Very interesting to me, to say the least.

Hope you are onto something rb. I just finished watching TWC and they did an in depth analysis of next weeks threat. They said ALL major models show the storm way offshore. They believe it is not impossible the models correct west but “VERY UNLIKELY”. They think we stay gone chilling cold thru all of next week with no snow on the east coast anywhere except for a coating to 1”tomorrow. Hopefully they are wrong because that would be brutal. 2+ weeks of well below freezing weather and nothing to show for it. OUCH!

[Frank_Wx]

And to be honest, I can DEFINITELY see that being a very viable option in this particular setup, and think that the models may be trying to eject our lead energy to quickly given what's progged to happen upstream of it. Very interesting to me, to say the least.

Hope you are onto something rb.  I just finished watching TWC and they did an in depth analysis of next weeks threat.  They said ALL major models show the storm way offshore.  They believe it is not impossible the models correct west but “VERY UNLIKELY”. They think we stay gone chilling cold thru all of next week with no snow on the east coast anywhere except for a coating to 1”tomorrow. Hopefully they are wrong because that would be brutal.  2+ weeks of well below freezing weather and nothing to show for it.  OUCH!

Bone chilling cold should be warning sign that their may not be many storms to track. When the air mass is this cold - this extreme - it tends to shear out upper level energy or suppress them to our south. When the cold relaxes is when we tend to see storm threats return. Obviously it can cold in even these extreme air masses, but I don't find the storms, in my experience, to be all that big.

[jimv45]

And the we get a big rainstorm, boy this place will be going nuts.

[rb924119]

And to be honest, I can DEFINITELY see that being a very viable option in this particular setup, and think that the models may be trying to eject our lead energy to quickly given what's progged to happen upstream of it. Very interesting to me, to say the least.

Hope you are onto something rb.  I just finished watching TWC and they did an in depth analysis of next weeks threat.  They said ALL major models show the storm way offshore.  They believe it is not impossible the models correct west but “VERY UNLIKELY”. They think we stay gone chilling cold thru all of next week with no snow on the east coast anywhere except for a coating to 1”tomorrow. Hopefully they are wrong because that would be brutal.  2+ weeks of well below freezing weather and nothing to show for it.  OUCH!

2000-2001 at this time was almost identical. I remember it well. Then it warmed up only to rain and the ground was so cold because there was no snow on the ground that we had nothing but an ice rink for weeks lol it was miserable.

[docstox12]

Unfort one of the big problems with why one would get disappointed is because time and time again people hear what they want to hear and not actually listen. Cp said it best. When someone raves about how good a potential looks from a week out and you think it’s a forgone conclusion happening then that’s a rookie mistake. When someone comes in here stating it’s the best pattern we have seen for a storm doesn’t mean you believe the storm is definitely happening. It’s on you to temper your own expectations because you know better. Because great patterns have not produced and crappy patterns have produced some beasts of winter storms. If the 4-6th works out great. If it doesn’t move one. Don’t blame your disappointments on anyone on here or anyone who is only on here briefly. Remember they are your disappointments and the weather does what it wants to do. No human on this planet can control it. Like my signature says go hug a human; not a weather model.

That said STOP hanging your hats on every single model run and microanalyzing individual runs. When a system or potential system is 5-7days out and beyond you HAVE to focus on trends. Sit back and discuss what 24-48hrs worth of runs tells you. Right now there have been trends all over the place. We have to accept the fact that the intensity of this cold air mass is such that a suppressed soln is highly plausible esp with an unfavorable Atlantic upper level flow. Like Frank said more than likely we must look to the west to bring this together. With all the pieces still there there is no reason to throw in the towel.

With that said im off on a fishing charter to try and catch me some Marlin, tuna, Dorado, and/or wahoo. Doc, jimmy and my other fisherman friends “tight lines”. I’ll post pictures in the banter thread if successful.

I’m adding a new quote to my signature “Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”.

Doc, tight lines, my Friend and hope you nail some monsters!! Happy New Year !

[rb924119]

God the GEFS are so close imo. 12 hours too late. Good thing it's only a 10% change, give or take, from five days out

[jmanley32]

Ha yup I would bet we get a big rainstorm middle Jan. Huge coastal 5 inches rain high winds. Jk it's interesting what frank and rb think are the issues here. Let's just let it play out. That euro run kicked my common sense in it's side for a second. For it to come back isn't impossible.

[hyde345]

And the we get a big rainstorm, boy this place will be going nuts.

Haha, I could definitely see that happening. 2 weeks of below freezing temps with no snow and then rain. What a kick in the ass that would be.

[amugs]

And the we get a big rainstorm, boy this place will be going nuts.

Jim that's what happens when pattern relaxes sometimes and when we are going into a cold/stormy pattern. i
I dont like it the east but the fact over my years I have come to say what re you going to do. Like my friend at work she goes nuts when it rains in teh winter  and then gets cold and then rains again after teh cold relaxes. Their is a reason for this with all the moving parts in our atmosphere.

TWC should not be making such statements at this time - how many times have they and other media outlets make bold statements like Lonnie, Janice and even Bill say White xmas is unlikely this year for the NYC metro area/broadcast region except far N&W - well I am about 20 miles NW of NYC and I woke up to .3" of white gold. My friend about 8 miles NW had just under 1".

So with this what peeps dont understand and IO believe CP or DOC said  this many of our pieces are not over land ROAB data collection areas until 48 hours before hence the drastic shifts sometimes. The PAC is what has and is driving our pattern and i have learned as well from Isotherm and others that we have to look to the far east to see what our pattern will hold overall to a degree.


A relaxation is coming just as it did in all years with a massive cold outbreak and here are teh latest maps from the euro - thx WxBell





How deep the thaw gets is anyone's guess but as our resident expert isotherm suggests it will be a big thaw.

GEFS on the Indicies
AO


NAO


PNA


EPO - once we lose this to positive territory we go AN . Looks to be around the 12thish


And yes Jim Witt says Jan17-19 storm - could be like the 23rd - a Cutter!!! If so it may reload winter?

[Frank_Wx]

The Stratosphere is entering a cold state as we enter January. The Strat PV is also shown to intensify at 10hPa which is solid evidence of conditions in the Strat turning unfavorable if we're expecting the cold air to sustain itself in the Troposphere.





This typically means our NAO region will continue to be dominated by negative heights suggesting a +NAO. With no sudden stratospheric warming event in sight we're likely to see a +NAO for all of January. Hopefully better signals arise for February. And to make sure I am covering my bases...I am not saying it will not snow in January. Just saying the NAO will continue its positive streak.

[jimv45]

It may be me but sometimes I will take a cutter with cold air in place with a good front end dump for some then these storms that get suppressed to our south or head out to sea.

[rb924119]

And bye bye Euro lol

[jimv45]

boy I was really looking forward to a nice chat for a storm next week, got sometime hope is all we can do.

[mikeypizano]

boy I was really looking forward to a nice chat for a storm next week, got sometime hope is all we can do.

You can always text me...

[jimv45]

Sounds good mikey!! And lets hope things turn around for a full chat here soon those are fun.

[nutleyblizzard]

There's been talk on the other board of some improvements with the GFS and EURO at 500mb. Proper sampling won't be for another 2 or 3 days. Threat isn't dead yet folks. Theres still time for a westward trend to commence. EURO and CMC already are west today from 0z.

[rb924119]

The UK actually looked pretty darn good from what I can tell, though I can't see the vorticity structure and only have increments of 24 hours. But it definitely had the synoptic setup, and it's 50-50 low was certainly worthy of the name aha the trough was just too broad-based for a track up the coast. But what it depicted is definitely something we can work with, I think.

[docstox12]

Well the fact that pieces remain that could come together is a good sign at this point.Cautious optimism as Doc says, is the word here.

[Sanchize06]

Minor improvements on the 18z GFS compared to 12z. ULL in the pacific is a little further away allowing for better ridging in the west, which allows a better looking trough here in the east, still OTS, but better.

[MattyICE]

Agreed. Also, though I know how unimportant surface maps are this far out, the surface LP came a good 150 miles west from minor changes aloft. With a setup as delicate as this, based so much on timing, very minor changes at H5 will continue to mean significant shifts...hopefully only to the West . Every option still very much alive.

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