Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[Sanchize06]

Minor improvements on the 18z GFS compared to 12z. ULL in the pacific is a little further away allowing for better ridging in the west, which allows a better looking trough here in the east, still OTS, but better.

[MattyICE]

Agreed. Also, though I know how unimportant surface maps are this far out, the surface LP came a good 150 miles west from minor changes aloft. With a setup as delicate as this, based so much on timing, very minor changes at H5 will continue to mean significant shifts...hopefully only to the West . Every option still very much alive.

[Sanchize06]

Agreed. Also, though I know how unimportant surface maps are this far out, the surface LP came a good 150 miles west from minor changes aloft. With a setup as delicate as this, based so much on timing, very minor changes at H5 will continue to mean significant shifts...hopefully only to the West . Every option still very much alive.

Yeah, was nice to see the OP run come in west since 12z ensembles were west. That low west of California is going to have a big impact on the flow and where this storm sets up. Good sign seeing it move west some, allows for our storm to come west as well.

[Sanchize06]

18z GEFS seems to have some more west members than 12z

[docstox12]

OK, now THIS is the scenario I like with these long ranges.Start out with a miss and SLOWLY bring it back west inch by inch each run.Reminds me of the Boxing Day Blizzard, was OTS, then 1 to 3 inches then BAM,LOL.Will history repeat? ...... stay tuned!

[jmanley32]

I think we are wishcasting but time will tell.

[amugs]

We said what is needed and just because the models OP show OTS 6 days out we call this wishcasting? Common it is not wishcasting but recognizing the potential.of the pattern.  We have dozens of examples of hemisphere set ups that have gone from OTS to SECs, MECS and HECS - 1983, 1994, 2003, 2010, 2016 etc.
Look at the improvement out west in this gif from another board. Give it time and by Monday 12z if not Tuesday well have much better sampling of the energy. West coast is where this majorly will be decided on what we get or don't. That Ridge axis is crucial since we don't have a N NAO to help. A 50/50 is going to be there but the timing of that is important.as well.earlier the better in the time frame imo.

[rb924119]

Interesting subtleties afoot in the 00z NAM......

[nutleyblizzard]

Interesting subtleties afoot in the 00z NAM......

Really? Please enlighten us.

[mikeypizano]

Interesting subtleties afoot in the 00z NAM......

Really? Please enlighten us.

RB is such a tease...

[rb924119]

Most important difference is look at how the lead energy over the Great Plains lags much further behind compared to 18z, which reduces the wave spacing between the second piece and itself by about 500 miles. Also notice that the ridge between the two is more muted in the 00z frame, which further increases the odds of a downstream interaction (earlier). Lastly, the upper-level low is lagged slightly, and our ridge looks more appealing both in it's overall shape and placement about 100 miles further west.

[rb924119]

If we could then get the lead energy to hang back far enough to where it then separates from the rest of the PV streamer that extends northeastward along the eastern flank of the long wave trough.....look out.

[rb924119]

Now you got me curious......

[rb924119]

00z NAM:

Focus on the energy diving southward through south-central Canada and the lead energy/trough through the Great Plains:



28/1200z EURO Op (the one we were drooling over):

Focus on those same two pieces of energy/troughs and their locations:



Remarkably similar, in my opinion, with the EURO's lead energy being a little stronger than the 00z NAM. Now, extrapolation is a very risky endeavor, to say the least, but I'm intrigued with the prospect of where that NAM run might have headed if it went out further.

[mikeypizano]

Guess just have to wait and see until the storms within the NAM range huh?

[amugs]

+EAMT yet again forces another 'jet extension', that makes a wave break, that helps form another -EPO ridge. Which will provide Eastern US favourability. I can't promise it, but the signs look good. But there's no support from the MJO though.

From a NE Met on another biard. Hmm gives us hope for January and extendin this winter before the thaw,

[rb924119]

So it looks like the lagging of he lead energy might be real.......GFS has now continued the trend of this at 00z.

[rb924119]

I'll be willing to bet that we see the GFS come further west than 18z. Probably even further west than the 18z Ensembles.

[rb924119]

This run will probably put New England back in the game, at least.

[amugs]

Nice improved H5 out west. That is my focus.

[amugs]

Better Ridge put west and closed off 50/50 forming NE of Newfoundland. Get these a tad more and we have major downstream and upstream effects in a positive way. A hair of this movement is a couple hundred miles in the track.

[nutleyblizzard]

I'm hearing the UKIE came west.

[nutleyblizzard]

Let me rephrase that. UKIE came way west!!!

[amugs]

Let me rephrase that. UKIE came way west!!!

[amugs]

Look at the Ridge out west and the HP off just NE of Newfoundland that has the markings of a big storm.

[Frank_Wx]

The 00z GEFS are west of the OP which is a red flag. Everything has been trending west since 18z. Interesting EURO run tonight. We're still far away from knowing the final outcome on this one.

[jmanley32]

Well looks like so far tonight's runs have brought some hope back. Gfs came back well west cmc west and ukie is inside benchmark by cape cod. I take back my earlier statement for now.

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