January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Wow. Just looking at radar and it seems a band is already moving into Long Island...

It’s confirmed. Snow now falling in Nassau County on LI. The signature of this puppy on radar is unbelievable.

Soul u think we might be upgraded to blizzard warnings, I read the LI one and its nearly identical to our WSW, no mention of 35mph sustained just says 50mph gusts just like ours does.

I don’t think so up in Westchester where we are. Furthest west I see it going is Queens/Bkln. Remember, we would need all the parameters to meet a blizzard, including *sustained winds of 35mph for > 3 hrs.

Snowing here and it’s 28*

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Wow. Just looking at radar and it seems a band is already moving into Long Island...

It’s confirmed. Snow now falling in Nassau County on LI. The signature of this puppy on radar is unbelievable.

Soul u think we might be upgraded to blizzard warnings, I read the LI one and its nearly identical to our WSW, no mention of 35mph sustained just says 50mph gusts just like ours does.

I don’t think so up in Westchester where we are. Furthest west I see it going is Queens/Bkln. Remember, we would need all the parameters to meet a blizzard, including *sustained winds of 35mph for > 3 hrs.

Ehh who cares it will def have blizzard like conditions if we get gusts to 50mph, and the amount of snow showing on recent models is great lets hope they verify, i would like to know whats going on down south the movement is it still west of the models?

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Wow. Just looking at radar and it seems a band is already moving into Long Island...

It’s confirmed. Snow now falling in Nassau County on LI. The signature of this puppy on radar is unbelievable.

Soul u think we might be upgraded to blizzard warnings, I read the LI one and its nearly identical to our WSW, no mention of 35mph sustained just says 50mph gusts just like ours does.

I don’t think so up in Westchester where we are. Furthest west I see it going is Queens/Bkln. Remember, we would need all the parameters to meet a blizzard, including *sustained winds of 35mph for > 3 hrs.

Ehh who cares it will def have blizzard like conditions if we get gusts to 50mph, and the amount of snow showing on recent models is great lets hope they verify, i would like to know whats going on down south the movement is it still west of the models?

From my amateur eye, models are still initializing with the low further east than it actually is via current obs. Big red flag obviously.

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Wow. Just looking at radar and it seems a band is already moving into Long Island...

It’s confirmed. Snow now falling in Nassau County on LI. The signature of this puppy on radar is unbelievable.

Soul u think we might be upgraded to blizzard warnings, I read the LI one and its nearly identical to our WSW, no mention of 35mph sustained just says 50mph gusts just like ours does.

I don’t think so up in Westchester where we are. Furthest west I see it going is Queens/Bkln. Remember, we would need all the parameters to meet a blizzard, including *sustained winds of 35mph for > 3 hrs.

Ehh who cares it will def have blizzard like conditions if we get gusts to 50mph, and the amount of snow showing on recent models is great lets hope they verify, i would like to know whats going on down south the movement is it still west of the models?

From my amateur eye, models are still initializing with the low further east than it actually is via current obs. Big red flag obviously.

red flag in a good way meaning more snow i assume you mean.

Nothing here yet, some dryslotting going on. I'm riding the cutoff again, you all know how much I LOVE that... Geez what could have been, if it tucked in right off the coast and the flow wasnt so fast we could have a roidzilla. Oh well I'll take what I can get, hopefully 4-5", those on the coast and LI, have fun, hopefully you get it good. I'm thinking 6-12" there.

and that’s it folks...

The Euro has CAVED to the NAM!

Snowing here in Saint James, LI. Dusting on all surfaces. No virga!

Look at those dark greens

Screw YOU, euro. NAM is the new King. Period.

Meso

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17

Rapidly deepening, SE of Hatteras, thing is going to fly to the NNE then NE. Very unusual setup.

Scullybutcher wrote:

Look at those dark greens

Ugh. Nice dryslot over my area.

00z Euro!! LOL useless models its too late now

SoulSingMG wrote:Screw YOU, euro. NAM is the new King. Period.

Wow that's like the most robust of many models, would quickly take 9" and run but expecting half that IMBY. EURO/GFS choked this one, CMC deserves some credit for precip shield out of the globals.

It's not often the entire coast thru VA is all snow with a coastal storm, very impressive arctic airmass.

As of 1 AM:

Islip: Air Temperature: 29; Dew Point: 24, Humidity: 82%
JFK: Air Temperature: 28; Dew Point: 17, Humidity: 63%
LaGuardia: Air Temperature: 29; Dew Point: 10, Humidity: 45%
Central Park: Air Temperature: 28; Dew Point: 6, Humidity: 39%
Newark: Air Temperature: 26; Dew Point: 9, Humidity: 48%

Waiting for the CPK dew point temp to rise.....

I am on the edge of my seat the precip is moving at a glacial pace to our area soul, hopefully we dont stay in the devoid area.

All the Globals forgot their was a party and showed up late as it's starting to snow. Euro, CMC, UKIE, and of course the GooFuS sucked big time. All hail King NAM.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Screw YOU, euro. NAM is the new King. Period.

Wow that's like the most robust of many models, would quickly take 9" and run but expecting half that IMBY. EURO/GFS choked  this one, CMC deserves some credit for precip shield out of the globals.

CMC sucked too. It's QPF output was laughable as I said yesterday. It was giving Long Island and Red Sox Suck 3 inches before this 00z run.

jmanley32 wrote:I am on the edge of my seat the precip is moving at a glacial pace to our area soul, hopefully we dont stay in the devoid area.

Oh it’s coming J, and when it does... gangbusters

Here it comes, Jman...

Yes, the models upped the snow totals but as members have mentioned, this is a nowcast situation.

From 12 AM to 1 AM, the dew point temperature in Central Park DROPPED from 11 to 6. And the air temperature dropped from 29 to 28 so the relative humidity dropped to 39%. I'm sorry but until the dew point temperature goes up, I am not excited about the potential snow. I'm sure it will rise eventually but Manhattan is in the screw zone for right now.

Woke up read was so excited ..went to window...not a flake is flying by the Hook

Give it 30 minutes

Man, Bayville coming down hard. If this banding can set up and keep this at a 2”/hr rate...easy 15-20”