Re: January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:13 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
Carter bk wrote:Like it frank but i really think the 10 to 15 should be from city east and is that with ratios

Yes with ratios.

syosnow94 wrote:Put a ruler down on the 10-15" line starting jersey shore into eastern LI and Ct. it takes a right over LI then back left enough in Ct just enough to miss me being in it by 2 miles. Done on purpose by our leader

not on purpose. But I do mention there could be 25 to 50 mile shifts in either direction. So you can consider yourself more in an 8-12 zone with 12+ possible. It's how you interpret the map

Taking the politically correct approach so as not to upset the tribe.....I respect it, I respect it ahahahaha jk, buddy, I like it! Personally, I think you can bank on that shift west versus east, and increase totals across EPa, but seeing as though I have not made a map myself, I will not nitpick lol I know you put a lot of work in with this, and for once, do not envy being in your position, as I know the despair of trying to decide on what to do all too well aha. This has been, and continues to be, a nightmare for all of us. That said, I think it's important that we recognize the fact that you are taking a stand and putting your thoughts out there for judgement, rather than broadbrushing. Bravo, and can't wait to see how this verifies!!! Great work!!

If the HRRR has it's way all western regions will see a few flakes. With ratios you may crack 1 inch.

Lucky for me I actually despise that model. Every single time I look at it/use it I get burned. So I don't even bother, and therefore that solution doesn't exist ahaha

by **Scullybutcher** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:18 pm

syosnow94 wrote:You mean busts low scully. Frank and Scott have a habit of doing this. Lol

Yes. I want the most snow for everyone possible. It’s like turning the ac up or down always confusion.

by **jimv45** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:23 pm

Yea 3-6 hyde, not that far from better or for worse too!!!

by **Artechmetals** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:23 pm

Lonnie just said track still up in the air

by **Sanchize06** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:29 pm

The precip is getting pretty far west into Virginia, much more than the models had, even the NAM

by **hyde345** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:30 pm

rb924119 wrote:Looking at present WV imagery it looks to me like our establishing low-level circulation is on a "B" line directly WEST of Hatteras. If that trajectory maintains, my god......you'd have your best banding set up as far west as EPa.

RB whats your thought about all the dry air in place in the HV? Is that going to be an issue for us?

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:32 pm

The only thing missing from tonight is the rapid fire chat...love those...

Hey what is going on with the recon planes..did they go out today?

by **aiannone** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:35 pm

rb924119 wrote:Looking at present WV imagery it looks to me like our establishing low-level circulation is on a "B" line directly WEST of Hatteras. If that trajectory maintains, my god......you'd have your best banding set up as far west as EPa.

Jeez. I guess we have to be careful what we wish for. Too far of a track west and LI will sleet lol

by **RJB8525** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:41 pm

All NYC schools are closed tomorrow. Announced a few seconds ago

by **mikeypizano** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:43 pm

Hey hey hey, when I said I wanted a truck load of snow this is not what I meant!!!!

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations - Page 2 Img_9810

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:45 pm

hyde345 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Looking at present WV imagery it looks to me like our establishing low-level circulation is on a "B" line directly WEST of Hatteras. If that trajectory maintains, my god......you'd have your best banding set up as far west as EPa.

RB whats your thought about all the dry air in place in the HV? Is that going to be an issue for us?

Dew points are definitely low, so it's gonna take a fair amount of time to saturate the column. That said, with such a backing flow regime coming off the Atlantic the mid- and lower-levels should steadily saturate as it approaches. The wind direction right now is important; note how it's from the east-south quadrant, and not from the northeast-west third. That's good because that means we aren't having the really cold, dry air drain into our region from New England and Canada.....yet. Not until the low begins getting closer to our latitude.

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:45 pm

rb924119 wrote:Looking at present WV imagery it looks to me like our establishing low-level circulation is on a "B" line directly WEST of Hatteras. If that trajectory maintains, my god......you'd have your best banding set up as far west as EPa.

There's been some chatter over at the other board why the GFS suddenly makes a ENE jog when the low approaches our latitude. With an already negative trough, that would argue for a more northerly trek closer to the coast. On another note, Lee Goldberg mentioned earlier that the snow shield is more west then what the models show. 0z runs will be telling tonight!

by **jimv45** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:46 pm

yes Hyde that dry air plus a arctic front Albany talked about could be a problem for us, but I still like right now 3-6 for us.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:48 pm

by **billg315** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:51 pm

I have to say, after reading Ray's post I took a look at the satellite/radar and it sure does look like the low center is tracking inside of Hatteras.

by **billg315** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:53 pm

Last night I noted how close the low center was to Hatteras on a couple of models, but it was still offshore -- not west of Hatteras. It's interesting that everything real-time today, radar, satellite, pressure centers seems slightly west of where it was on the models.

by **billg315** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:55 pm

Frank, looking at that radar we could have precipitation over us by about 10 pm, no? That's about 5-6 hours early. lol

by **mikeypizano** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:55 pm

So wait, if the low tracks west of Hatteras, does that mean I am likely to jackpot?

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:55 pm

No big deal, even the NAM is only about 300 miles too far southeast with its progged jet for 00z. Meh, that won't change the forecast at all ahaha

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:56 pm

Wow a call on NYC schools before morning wow.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:56 pm

billg315 wrote:Frank, looking at that radar we could have precipitation over us by about 10 pm, no? That's about 5-6 hours early. lol

In my write up I said 1 to 3 am from south to north. May start as virga

by **billg315** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:58 pm

rb924119 wrote:No big deal, even the NAM is only about 300 miles too far southeast with its progged jet for 00z. Meh, that won't change the forecast at all ahaha

lol. so true. and I was being kind to the models when I said "slightly" west of the models

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:58 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Looking at present WV imagery it looks to me like our establishing low-level circulation is on a "B" line directly WEST of Hatteras. If that trajectory maintains, my god......you'd have your best banding set up as far west as EPa.
There's been some chatter over at the other board why the GFS suddenly makes a ENE jog when the low approaches our latitude. With an already negative trough, that would argue for a more northerly trek closer to the coast. On another note, Lee Goldberg mentioned earlier that the snow shield is more west then what the models show. 0z runs will be telling tonight!

Agree!! The closing off of H5 alone argues against that, but even if it does, the precip shield should not be negatively impacted. Throw in what our current jet looks like and I'm just slightly inclined to say that jump doesn't make sense, and the precip should be healthier than modeled further to the west.

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:00 pm

mikeypizano wrote:So wait, if the low tracks west of Hatteras, does that mean I am likely to jackpot?

*IF* it does, you might not technically jackpot, but you'd likely more than double your 2-4" forecast from the NWS lol

by **billg315** Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:01 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
billg315 wrote:Frank, looking at that radar we could have precipitation over us by about 10 pm, no? That's about 5-6 hours early. lol

In my write up I said 1 to 3 am from south to north. May start as virga

Yeah, it definitely would still be on target with what you said in your write-up. I was thinking more of where the models and other forecasters had this thing projected earlier today. It seems accelerated from those projections.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:02 pm

Hmmmmmmm

January 4th Mothrazilla: Final Call & Observations - Page 2 US.fronts

by **lglickman1** Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:04 pm

Hmmmm good or hmmmm bad?

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