Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[Grselig]

Yes Scott way too early to write this off I really believe this is coming south with such a strong Greenland block GEFS are definitely South and I'm also hearing the EPS is South as well

EPS for you Al and people writing anything off need to go to OTI for sometime. The atmospheric mechanisms are not even being recognized by the models - look at Europe and the UK? They had the pattern way under modeled 4 days ago to what is about to happen storm wise and cold wise.

I'm tingling just looking at that.

That looks very nice, any of those ones along the shore pan out though and its all rain, hopefully more will shift south.  I am not writing anything off, this seems to be a very complex setup we havent had this year ( a shame) and therefore I believe the models are far from a solution.  I start the new job Monday and being that I will be working intensively with the kids and not even allowed to have my cell in the classroom I will not know much until 3:15, maybe at 2pm when the kids go home and we do our paperwork and statistics for the day.

JMan Congrats and best of luck. I have a feeling you are going to make a difference in kids lives!!!! They need people like you.

[jmanley32]

Yes Scott way too early to write this off I really believe this is coming south with such a strong Greenland block GEFS are definitely South and I'm also hearing the EPS is South as well

EPS for you Al and people writing anything off need to go to OTI for sometime. The atmospheric mechanisms are not even being recognized by the models - look at Europe and the UK? They had the pattern way under modeled 4 days ago to what is about to happen storm wise and cold wise.

I'm tingling just looking at that.

That looks very nice, any of those ones along the shore pan out though and its all rain, hopefully more will shift south.  I am not writing anything off, this seems to be a very complex setup we havent had this year ( a shame) and therefore I believe the models are far from a solution.  I start the new job Monday and being that I will be working intensively with the kids and not even allowed to have my cell in the classroom I will not know much until 3:15, maybe at 2pm when the kids go home and we do our paperwork and statistics for the day.

JMan  Congrats and best of luck. I have a feeling you are going to make a difference in kids lives!!!!  They need people like you.

Thanks as I had stated earlier in the week its a preschool so the goal is to get them ready to move into kindergarten.  Most have developmental delays such as autism spectrum disorder and this school with uses something called applied behavioral analysis as their methodology to help them supposedly learn 4-7x faster than those that are not given early intervention. I am very interested to take this change in career paths though it is still very much social work related its more of a teaching job but still requires my NYS LMSW and credentials.

[Grselig]

Yes Scott way too early to write this off I really believe this is coming south with such a strong Greenland block GEFS are definitely South and I'm also hearing the EPS is South as well

EPS for you Al and people writing anything off need to go to OTI for sometime. The atmospheric mechanisms are not even being recognized by the models - look at Europe and the UK? They had the pattern way under modeled 4 days ago to what is about to happen storm wise and cold wise.

I'm tingling just looking at that.

That looks very nice, any of those ones along the shore pan out though and its all rain, hopefully more will shift south.  I am not writing anything off, this seems to be a very complex setup we havent had this year ( a shame) and therefore I believe the models are far from a solution.  I start the new job Monday and being that I will be working intensively with the kids and not even allowed to have my cell in the classroom I will not know much until 3:15, maybe at 2pm when the kids go home and we do our paperwork and statistics for the day.

JMan  Congrats and best of luck. I have a feeling you are going to make a difference in kids lives!!!!  They need people like you.

Thanks as I had stated earlier in the week its a preschool so the goal is to get them ready to move into kindergarten.  Most have developmental delays such as autism spectrum disorder and this school with uses something called applied behavioral analysis as their methodology to help them supposedly learn 4-7x faster than those that are not given early intervention. I am very interested to take this change in career paths though it is still very much social work related its more of a teaching job but still requires my NYS LMSW and credentials.

I responded in banter.

[Radz]

I know its still 5 days or so away, but anyone else concerned about availability of cold air for the coastal storm next weekend? Looking more like a heavy rain event with heavy snows confined to far interior areas. Initial storm getting way too far north before transferring to a coastal... blocking too far north? or too weak?

[docstox12]

I know its still 5 days or so away, but anyone else concerned about availability of cold air for the coastal storm next weekend? Looking more like a heavy rain event with heavy snows confined to far interior areas. Initial storm getting way too far north before transferring to a coastal... blocking too far north? or too weak?

Hope this miserable pattern of everything cutting changes.

[WeatherBob]

Does the Euro show any snow accumulation near our forecast area from last nights run?

[WeatherBob]

I guess that question raises a sensitive topic, sorry.

[Radz]

I guess that question raises a sensitive topic, sorry.

I think the better question is WILL the Euro show accumulation in our area 48hrs from the onset of the event 

[WeatherBob]

Radz, I understand 1000%, I was just curious, that’s all.

[WeatherBob]

I think if the upper low and surface low end up in a favorable position for us by weeks end, we are going to have to rely on dynamic cooling to cool the atmospheric column above us. The only way this will happen is if the upper level system is vigorous enough with good vertical motion above us. I think it is pretty evident at this juncture that we will lack surface cold air.

[Guest]

What's the outlook for inland? I mean way inland like where I live.

[algae888]

I think if the upper low and surface low end up in a favorable position for us by weeks end, we are going to have to rely on dynamic cooling to cool the atmospheric column above us. The only way this will happen is if the upper level system is vigorous enough with good vertical motion above us.  I think it is pretty evident at this juncture that we will lack surface cold air.

Bob as far as I know the Euro showed very little snow for our area if you look at today's 12z runs excluding the gfs as it closes the low right over New York City the rest of the guidance to me would be snow from around hour 114 through hour 126. Look at the CMC for example it closes off the low in a perfect spot 980md drops to 962 in 12 hours 850s and 925s below zero. That's snow for most of this forum I believe models have a hard time with mid level and low level thermal profiles and how it translates into surface reflection just my two cents the icon is also similar to the CMC if that's the track rain too heavy wet snow for our area

[MattyICE]

The only way to get the colder air in would be to stop the primary storm from cutting to the lakes prior to a secondary transfer. As is, the secondary can take over and sit in the most favorable position ever and it will rain. Rather, the primary has to get no farther north than the Ohio valley then transfer. Even then we’d still need dynamics for help. While this sounds pessimistic let’s consider a few things. 1) so far the models have been showing storms based on the projection of all these teleconnections. JUST now are the changes actually happening. I would expect some favorable adjustments now that the atmosphere is actually changing, no longer based on projections. 2) the important players themselves are not on the field until Monday and Tuesday. I think there is time left for this to trend favorably...but I also believe there is a ceiling.

[WeatherBob]

If the GFS verifies with the latest run as far as vertical velocities are concerned and our area right beneath the upper low with the center over Delaware, I think we can experience some wild weather phenomenon, even with the lack of surface cold air. As Archie Bunker said, this could turn out to be a “good night nurse” weather event.

[WeatherBob]

The exact year escapes me right now but it was in the early 80’s when I was in Kean College studying meteorology ( that was the name back then) when a vigorous upper level system came out of southern Texas and ended up just east of Atlantic City with a 960 mb low all stacked up , this was in March.  Surface cold air was marginal and we ended up with, get this , 10 inches of sleet, no lie.

[sabamfa]

Bob, what kind of wild weather could we see? I know it’s not a guarantee, but what could that type of set up possibly lead to?

[Guest]

NWS says what block and pattern change.....

Thursday
A 50 percent chance of rain after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48.
Thursday Night
Rain. Low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Friday
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday Night
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near 43.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 45.

[WeatherBob]

Sabamfa - when you get extreme vertical velocities in the mid levels that are coupled with a deep and strong upper level system that is basically over head and to the south, you can see in and out periods of heavy wet snow and sleet / rain and high winds along with potential lightning. We will see how intense the upper level low eventually is and where the greatest forcing ends up. This of course is just hypothetical at this point.

[WeatherBob]

I am kinda getting excited about this storm. I was neglecting to look at the 300 mb maps . I just checked the 18z GFS 300 mb and it is going negative over Ohio / western PA and it actually cuts it off just east of AC. This could turn out to be a cool storm after all. No where near a classic nor’ Easter snowstorm but wild weather as I noted above going to heavy wet snow and strong NW winds. We will see how things go over the next few days.

[skinsfan1177]

Gfs was colder

[jmanley32]

looks like the headline from this system could be the wind. All 3 models have from 64kts as high at 96kts+ over eastern LI and cape on Euro. This at 850mb sustained. I hope we can get snow coupled with this but a heavy wet snow with high winds would be really bad.

[SoulSingMG]

This event is looking quite dire for the coastlines with coastal flooding, and even inland areas with the wind threat. Long duration. Pretty sure that will be the talk of the "town" over precip impacts. But look out where you do get the heavy wet snow coupled with the intense winds...

[SoulSingMG]

looks like the headline from this system could be the wind.  All 3 models have from 64kts as high at 96kts+ over eastern LI and cape on Euro.  This at 850mb sustained.  I hope we can get snow coupled with this but a heavy wet snow with high winds would be really bad.

Alright, THAT is weird Jman! We literally wrote that at the same time! Even using the word "coupled" together freaks me out haha.

But yes, we are on the same page with those concerns. Even heavy rain with long duration winds will cause issues.

[amugs]

I am kinda getting excited about this storm.  I was neglecting to look at the 300 mb maps .  I just checked the 18z GFS 300 mb and it is going negative over Ohio / western PA and it actually cuts it off just east of AC.  This could turn out to be a cool storm after all.  No where near a classic nor’ Easter snowstorm but wild weather as I noted above going to heavy wet snow and strong NW winds.  We will see how things go over the next few days.

Roberto aka Bob - the N 5/6 NAO which is retrograding west from Europe will force this under it. The more the storm is delayed Friday the more south it will get pushed S and locked in. Please peeps don't start the suppression panic have some faith in this pattern upcoming. Mets like Isotherm, Earthlight, DxSnow, JB, JM are allon board for this pattern and these storms.
This should about 50 -100 miles more S of where it has it now DelMarva region.
Patience is needed and the OP runs are to pendulum like now to even take for the outcome at all.
Jan 4th storm had yes lots of cold air but models had it one week out then lost it only to have it come back within 24 hours basically for the region. Same happened with the Dec 9th storm.

Good to see you are excited now and hopefully that will be raised to ecstatic in the coming days!!

[WeatherBob]

Mugsy, this is turning into a Wow. Yes, I can see it trending south also. I will control myself and take it slow and easy the next few model runs!

[nutleyblizzard]

I am kinda getting excited about this storm.  I was neglecting to look at the 300 mb maps .  I just checked the 18z GFS 300 mb and it is going negative over Ohio / western PA and it actually cuts it off just east of AC.  This could turn out to be a cool storm after all.  No where near a classic nor’ Easter snowstorm but wild weather as I noted above going to heavy wet snow and strong NW winds.  We will see how things go over the next few days.

Roberto aka Bob - the N 5/6 NAO which is retrograding west from Europe will force this under it. The more the storm is delayed Friday the more south it will get pushed S and locked in. Please peeps don't start the suppression panic have some faith in this pattern upcoming. Mets like Isotherm, Earthlight, DxSnow, JB, JM  are allon board for this pattern and these storms.
This should about 50 -100 miles more S of where it has it now DelMarva region.
Patience is needed and the OP runs are to pendulum like now to even take for the outcome at all.
Jan 4th storm had yes lots of cold air but models had it one week out then lost it only to have it come back within 24 hours basically for the region. Same happened with the Dec 9th storm.

Good to see you are excited now and hopefully that will be raised to ecstatic in the coming days!!

What we really need is for the initial primary low to be further south, not necessarily where the transfer low forms. Otherwise we're really going to need the transfer low really explode to scour out the warm mid levels.

[SoulSingMG]

If the 00z GFS panned out, we'd be wishcasting this storm *away. NOT a cute look at all for the coast.

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