Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[nutleyblizzard]

I am kinda getting excited about this storm.  I was neglecting to look at the 300 mb maps .  I just checked the 18z GFS 300 mb and it is going negative over Ohio / western PA and it actually cuts it off just east of AC.  This could turn out to be a cool storm after all.  No where near a classic nor’ Easter snowstorm but wild weather as I noted above going to heavy wet snow and strong NW winds.  We will see how things go over the next few days.

Roberto aka Bob - the N 5/6 NAO which is retrograding west from Europe will force this under it. The more the storm is delayed Friday the more south it will get pushed S and locked in. Please peeps don't start the suppression panic have some faith in this pattern upcoming. Mets like Isotherm, Earthlight, DxSnow, JB, JM  are allon board for this pattern and these storms.
This should about 50 -100 miles more S of where it has it now DelMarva region.
Patience is needed and the OP runs are to pendulum like now to even take for the outcome at all.
Jan 4th storm had yes lots of cold air but models had it one week out then lost it only to have it come back within 24 hours basically for the region. Same happened with the Dec 9th storm.

Good to see you are excited now and hopefully that will be raised to ecstatic in the coming days!!

What we really need is for the initial primary low to be further south, not necessarily where the transfer low forms. Otherwise we're really going to need the transfer low really explode to scour out the warm mid levels.

[SoulSingMG]

If the 00z GFS panned out, we'd be wishcasting this storm *away. NOT a cute look at all for the coast.

[jmanley32]

Yep easily high wind warning criteria and for a very extended period at that and several inches rain. No one really saw snow on that run even inland.

[jmanley32]

Already area wide hwo out for most area. Nws for pa says powerful late winter storm. But is say all rain. How is that a winter storm lol.

Also note sroc and Frank haven't chimed in much and Frank not at all. That to me tells me this is go be a non snow event. Could change but everywhere I'm reading us saying it's go b very difficult if not impossible to get snow to coast.

[algae888]

Last night's euro is 1 to 3 in for the city and Long Island and 6 to 12 in for the Northwest folks still a lot of details to be ironed out

[docstox12]

NWS disco this morning mentions the possibility of wintry precip in the NW Hills, so that euro Al mentions above may pan out.These are the scenarios the HV cashes in on.Way too early at this juncture as the pieces of energy have to come together.Anyhoo, a storm is on the way.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

It's hard for me to believe that on March 1 and storm takes the projected path it is forecast for, the NWS is predicting strong NNE winds Thursday night and on March 1-2 it's going to rain up in these parts.

If it happens that way I'm done, not loving our new climate of extreme snow storms but with record warmth. Give me some prolonged snow cover and cold any day. To each his own.

[Guest]

It's hard for me to believe that on March 1 and storm takes the projected path it is forecast for, the NWS is predicting strong NNE winds Thursday night and on March 1-2 it's going to rain up in these parts.

If it happens that way I'm done, not loving our new climate of extreme snow storms but with record warmth. Give me some prolonged snow cover and cold any day. To each his own.

Its like you are the voice in my head

[Frank_Wx]

A very potent Nor'easter is possible this weekend. However, check out the placement of the trough and ridge. There is a trough over the west and a ridge over the central U.S. To me this signals a lack of cold air. I do think areas N&W of NYC remain in a good spot in seeing some accumulating snow. But for the rest of us I would bet against it for now.

[Frank_Wx]

There remains hope that as this huge -NAO block decays, it will give a more favorable path for storms to head into our area with cold air in place. I would not discount the rest of March just yet. If nothing pans out the first 10-15 days of March I would declare winter as over. I am expecting a mild spring and hot summer...

[WeatherBob]

Unless the upper level system deepens more rapidly as currently forecasted as it approaches the mid Atlantic and is centered around the Delaware coast, not enough low level surface cooling (Dynamic cooling) will take place to bring a punch of heavy wet snow on North to NW winds. I will wait till the Tuesday morning runs to see if the models suggest a more intense upper level system.

[sroc4]

Like Frank mentioned there really isnt going to be a fresh injection of cold air ahead of this system.  Therefore, this will be one of those systems where it has to "generate its own cold air".  That said most people do not understand how truly complex this set up is and needs to realize the true dynamics of this storm will not be realized by models this far out, and even short range hi res models will likely struggle with the details.  To get it right it will not be as simple as looking at 500mb and figuring out what is going to transpire.  In addition to an H5 closed low there will be an upper level jet streak in the equation (location and position of which are key), as well as closed lows at 850mb and 700mb, the location and timing of which will be key players in the outcome as well.  

I know its hard to be excited when we have to rely on the fact that the system has generate its own cold air, but understand this system WILL GENERATE ITS OWN COLD AIR; its a just a matter of who will it benefit.  There are going to be several factors from different levels of the atmosphere, (upper level jet streak; low level jet; intense precip rates to name a few), that will be the reason that it will end up colder than what is modeled.  

All that said given that this system is the one that sets us up for the pattern to produce rather than one that comes in once the pattern has already been established it is of course going to favor the interior sections.  Of course it will be harder to get snow along the coastal plain so for Gods sake keep your expectations reasonable for this one.  Limit your frustrations and whining to after we see how the event shakes out.    

Things to watch for in the modeling:

1) Monitor trends to where the transfer begins and where the secondary comes off the coast.  If it comes off the coast from S Jersey on north the...the coast is toast.  If it comes off south of Jersey the coast has a chance.
 
2) Monitor the trends to the thermal profiles at 850, 925, and the surface, BUT DO NOT get hung up on the exact IMBY details of what they show.  I believe that the overwhelming complexity of this set up on multiple levels of the atmosphere, and complex physics that will be occurring will not allow the modeling to pin point the exact details with any accuracy even in tight; therefore, if we see the modeling trending colder that is all I'm looking for.  Again avoid the IMBY details. The exact thermal outcome will almost definitely be a now cast situation...at least within 25-50miles N&W and S&E of where the apparent R/S line will be.

3) Monitor trends to strength and positioning to upper level JS

For now that is all.  Please please please resist the urge to post a surface map and whine about how its too warm to snow IMBY.

[WeatherBob]

Sroc4 - you have put into much more detailed words my thoughts! Excellent!

[oldtimer]

Thanks Sroc. So good as always. You covered it all even our emotions

[sroc4]

Sroc4 - you have put into much more detailed words my thoughts!  Excellent!

Thank you and I appreciate your analysis as of late.  Unfort some of our better forecasters have gone quiet for the most part this season for varying reasons.

[sabamfa]

Thank you for the explanation last night, Bob. I appreciate it. Definitely a storm to keep an eye on.

[rb924119]

I've been largely quiet and absent, but have broken my temporary and self-imposed "benching" from time to time by checking in. I am still bordering on a fine line between a full return and just letting people go on with their emotion-fueled posts without any sweat off my back, or, returning to my completely frustrated state and reinstating my self-administered "benching" lol I wanted to break my silence with the following, and IT IS NOT MEANT TO COME ACROSS AS MOCKING, POMPASS, OR ANYTHING ALONG THOSE LINES: Those of you who are claiming that this storm is "over" with respect to its snow component, do not actually know how close this event ACTUALLY IS to being a significant snow threat FOR THE COAST. As has been stated ad nauseum, surface maps and operational runs CANNOT, BY ANY MEANS, BE TAKEN VERBATIM. If you need evidence of why, take a look at the operational run inconsistencies over only the last 24 hours. We've not only had issues with secondary placement or intensity, but now we are having additional issues with development versus an inverted trough. The highly anomalous nature of this pattern and event is causing mayhem in the modeling. This is where pattern recognition is a necessity, because modeling, while helpful, is going to be useless until the very near term. My thoughts? Everybody north of the Madon-Dixon WILL SEE SNOW FROM THIS, with significant accumulations likely north of about I-78.  Look for a correction south and an earlier coastal transfer with an explosive period of development during the first 18-24 hours of the life of the coastal. Models will not see this right away. The entire Northern Hemispheric pattern supports a south trend, and with the anomalous warmth of the western Atlantic waters beneath such an anomalous trough, among the other later-deep dynamical forcing mechanisms will lead to the explosive development of the secondary coastal.

You can have your opinions, I'm not against that. But please don't base your opinions SOLELY on surface maps. Just sit tight folks, and ride this one out for a few days, because between now and game time, this is going to be a wild-a$$ ride over the next several days.

[rb924119]

Great discussion being led by sroc and WeatherBob, by the way!! THAT is how you debate differing view points, no just declaring something by one or two maps.

[SoulSingMG]

I've been largely quiet and absent, but have broken my temporary and self-imposed "benching" from time to time by checking in. I am still bordering on a fine line between a full return and just letting people go on with their emotion-fueled posts without any sweat off my back, or, returning to my completely frustrated state and reinstating my self-administered "benching" lol I wanted to break my silence with the following, and IT IS NOT MEANT TO COME ACROSS AS MOCKING, POMPASS, OR ANYTHING ALONG THOSE LINES: Those of you who are claiming that this storm is "over" with respect to its snow component, do not actually know how close this event ACTUALLY IS to being a significant snow threat FOR THE COAST. As has been stated ad nauseum, surface maps and operational runs CANNOT, BY ANY MEANS, BE TAKEN VERBATIM. If you need evidence of why, take a look at the operational run inconsistencies over only the last 24 hours. We've not only had issues with secondary placement or intensity, but now we are having additional issues with development versus an inverted trough. The highly anomalous nature of this pattern and event is causing mayhem in the modeling. This is where pattern recognition is a necessity, because modeling, while helpful, is going to be useless until the very near term. My thoughts? Everybody north of the Madon-Dixon WILL SEE SNOW FROM THIS, with significant accumulations likely north of about I-78.  Look for a correction south and an earlier coastal transfer with an explosive period of development during the first 18-24 hours of the life of the coastal. Models will not see this right away. The entire Northern Hemispheric pattern supports a south trend, and with the anomalous warmth of the western Atlantic waters beneath such an anomalous trough, among the other later-deep dynamical forcing mechanisms will lead to the explosive development of the secondary coastal.

You can have your opinions, I'm not against that. But please don't base your opinions SOLELY on surface maps. Just sit tight folks, and ride this one out for a few days, because between now and game time, this is going to be a wild-a$$ ride over the next several days.

I was wondering earlier today where you were! Great post. And you know when CrankyWxGuy is amped up over a system days out, it's almost certain to be a biggie in some way. The pieces that will interact to form this event for us are already extremely impressive individually.

[Grselig]

RB. Good to have you back. Please contribute. I appreciate your analysis. Always easy to understand logical and i don’t need a weather dictionary to get it.

[GreyBeard]

Welcome back rb, good to see you posting again. I think many are frustrated with the way this winter has gone and everyone is disappointed. But in the immortal words of Mick Jagger, "you can't always get what you want..."

At least the potential is there for something happening in the next couple of weeks, let's hope for the best.

[Scullybutcher]

RB glad your back and giving hope to the hopeless thank you.

[jmanley32]

Does this storm warrant a thread yet it's 3 days away 4 tops.

[sroc4]

Does this storm warrant a thread yet it's 3 days away 4 tops.

If there isnt one by tomorrow Ill make one. I am tentatively planning on doing some sort of write up with maps after evaluating all the overnight 00z data

[oldtimer]

Is there anything today that would suggest that the system might be getting colder??

[billg315]

The 12z GFS seems to transfer energy to the coastal low a bit further south than the 6z, but it also seems to form/strengthen that low farther off the coast. That doesn't seem terribly logical to me. Someone can correct me if I'm blatantly wrong, but when energy transfers to these coastal lows my experience is they tend to be relatively close to the coast and a little further south than has so far been projected (Usually around Virginia or the southern Delmarva). Ergo, I think the 12z GFS is picking up on the development further south (which seems correct), but perhaps shifting it too far east (I think it will be tucked a little closer to the coast at first). Now that could be because the pattern is a little too progressive (as currently modeled) at the outset and the ridge over the central U.S. doesn't dig the trough deep enough in the east quickly enough?? Not sure. But if I were a betting man, I'd say the Low develops further south than the 6z GFS and closer to the coast than the 12z GFS.

In any event, the upper air pattern also seems to show some ridging building over the Rockies/Central US, which I would hope would provide some cold air from central Canada pouring downstream into this system -- if not at the outset, perhaps as the storm strengthens. Could this also be the type of storm where initial cold rain goes over to heavy wet snow as the cold air gets into the system?

Even if there is not much snow, I could see this storm being similar to the mid-March 2010 storm that brought severe flooding and some wind damage to NJ. Should be an interesting one to watch.

[SoulSingMG]

And let's not get into what the 12z Euro just put out for the next storm......

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