Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[rb924119]

Great post, Frank!!! However, I would (respectfully) contend that that we WILL see a PNA spike occur while our storm is traversing the nation. Why? Because our storm will be born out of the eastern Pacific trough. What will happen is our energy will split out from the main trough in response to another Pacific jet retraction and concomitant Rossby wave amplification. As a result, the parent trough will retrograde some further west into the Pacific and begin enhancing our increasing EPO ridge through Alaska. As this splits back, pumps the EPO, and our energy begins heading east in the mean flow, we will see a "bounce back" of our PNA heights in response to the splitting H5 trough, and Pacific amplification. Regardless of a phase, you're going to have a true bowling ball low cutting across the Heartland. The reason I really like this setup is because this low will be working a -NAO/EPO couplet, with a spiking PNA (in my opinion), which will allow the energy in our system to really consolidate rapidly as the trough sharpens and deepens. This is fantastic and why I'm so fired up - bowling ball low working with a coupled -EPO/NAO providing a truly cold air source spells trouble for anywhere north of that low. The PNA spike will only assist the matter. Where I get nervous for the coast, however, and why I'm expecting this to trend further northwest with time, is because we will be lacking a -AO, WPO and a true 50/50 low. We will also be missing favorable tropical forcing as the MJO will be crashing into the null-phase and the SOI has been predominantly positive, though mainly marginally in strength. As we continue to head toward the warm season, warm air will begin having more fight, and combined with the very warm western Atlantic water, I think it will aid in building western Atlantic heights in conjunction with the processes associated with the amplification upstream (and our system) and increase diabetic heat release, as I fully expect this to be a pretty large severe weather producer. Either way, very fun and exciting times ahead!!!!!

[Frank_Wx]

Good post Ray. I can't say I disagree with any of it. You have more confidence than I when it comes to our trough. I want to see in 2 days from now exactly how amplified models are with it. It's possible the bowling ball upper low in the Heartland does not come to fruition. It could stay an open wave. It will depend on what happens upstream

[rb924119]

Good post Ray. I can't say I disagree with any of it. You have more confidence than I when it comes to our trough. I want to see in 2 days from now exactly how amplified models are with it. It's possible the bowling ball upper low in the Heartland does not come to fruition. It could stay an open wave. It will depend on what happens upstream

Thats a good point: My outcome is pretty dependent upon a stronger wave ejecting, though even if it is disorganized at first, I am still under the opinion that it would be forced to quickly organize as it cuts beneath the blocking. That said, the weaker it is when it ejects, more it can be influenced and suppressed by the -EPO/NAO couplet and spiking PNA.

[SoulSingMG]

00z GFS. KaBOOM.

[jmanley32]

Indeed soul perfect verbatim. I know we would both take that to the bank. Cmc was kinda a cutter to a coastal was kinda odd. Euro coming in now

[jmanley32]

Euro too warm for coast verbatim although does msnage squeeze out 6 to 8 around me verbatim but based on the past 3 I'll say 0 lol. but still a nice hit inlsnd and placement atm. If we have that cold in place that won't be an issue.

[WeatherBob]

I would prefer to see what the prognostication models look like early this weekend since it is a bit early to see how this system will slingshot to the east coast. A few minor degrees of fluctuation with the system as it developes in the west coast area can mean many many miles on the actual position of the system on the east coast as everyone is aware of. I just don’t want to get hopes up high at this point.

[Frank_Wx]

Impressive shift north on the models last night. The track is so north that we all rain. I'm not buying into this solution. -EPO, -NAO, and confluence over NE argues for a southern track. We're far from the final solution. Typical model mayhem which will continue through this weekend.

[billg315]

Latest GFS has it tucked in tight giving us more rain than snow although a brief heavy snow for many. I’m just glad the models have progressed from OTS to up the coast. Details I’ll worry about later.

[Frank_Wx]

EURO shows a strong system that cuts west to deliver us rain. Check this GIF out of the last 3 EURO runs. Look how drastically different each 500mb feature is run to run. EPO, NAO, etc. All in a different spot. We are very far from the final solution.

[Frank_Wx]

By the way if this event turns into a Miller B, where the primary cuts north and a secondary develops off the coast, it will be a warm event for NYC Metro in my opinion. Our best bet is keeping the primary south and strong which keeps the arctic air over our area in place.

[rb924119]

EURO shows a strong system that cuts west to deliver us rain. Check this GIF out of the last 3 EURO runs. Look how drastically different each 500mb feature is run to run. EPO, NAO, etc. All in a different spot. We are very far from the final solution.

Very volatile situation. Split flow storms always are. This where the use of Ensembles and pattern recognition can really show their merit against base-state guidance that many mainstream mets fall into the trap of using. Kudos to the NWS for getting such a jump on this system, though! How long you think it will take the media? Lmao

[rb924119]

By the way if this event turns into a Miller B, where the primary cuts north and a secondary develops off the coast, it will be a warm event for NYC Metro in my opinion. Our best bet is keeping the primary south and strong which keeps the arctic air over our area in place.

Agree strongly. I do think there is a little wiggle room south in coming days, though not much, and still like where my initial thoughts stand. Longggggggggggg way to go here. Again, for those reading, Ensembles and pattern recognition are the way to go, NOT living and/or dying with operational runs.

[Math23x7]

Let's be honest: NYC has probably seen the last of the snow until next fall. It will stay cold though until around April 9th IMO.

Areas north of the city, on the other hand, will continue to get the big snow they've gotten the past week and a half.

[sroc4]

I told myself I wasn't going to even look at this one until Sat morning. Technically I haven't looked directly at any models, but skimming through what has been posted since yesterday indirectly I get the gist. Ops runs will be all over the place until the weekend the earliest so like Ray said look to the ensembles to get an idea of the set up. IMHO a Miller B is a strong possibility, esp if it comes out of the Rockies guns a blazing. If its too amped up as it reaches the plains it will likely try to cut towards ohio valley given the weakening but still present -NAO. That said the -EPO is strengthening and could/should, combined with the -NAO still present, provide the blocking HP necessary to force it to transfer off the coast in Miller B fashion somewhere from the Va to Delmarva Coastline. I personally think that while I agree the Miller B set up would lead to a "warmer" soln overall for NYC metro I still thing the pattern is such that there should still be "cold enough" air available to support a snow storm.

Ill check back in this weekend.

[sroc4]

Let's be honest:  NYC has probably seen the last of the snow until next fall.  It will stay cold though until around April 9th IMO.

Areas north of the city, on the other hand, will continue to get the big snow they've gotten the past week and a half.

Last of the snow Mikey or last of the accumulating snow??  Because you've seen plenty of snow fall from the sky with the last two systems...and areas N&W AND East have seen decent accumulations with the last two systems. This system has a chance to the same thing. Urban Heat island may be in effect yet again for your areas Mikey.  BTW let keep banter in banter.

[jmanley32]

Okay either forecast has changed drastically or accuex is on st. 50s on Tues and bear 60 we'd? No way it snows like that.

[Math23x7]

Okay either forecast has changed drastically or accuex is on st. 50s on Tues and bear 60 we'd? No way it snows like that.

That's what happens when you're on the warm side of the low pressure system, which is what will happen early next week in NYC. And, once the low pulls out, that's when the flash freeze occurs.

I could see Doc and CP adding to the snow totals for 2017-18. NYC not much if at all.

[jmanley32]

Okay either forecast has changed drastically or accuex is on st. 50s on Tues and bear 60 we'd? No way it snows like that.

That's what happens when you're on the warm side of the low pressure system, which is what will happen early next week in NYC.  And, once the low pulls out, that's when the flash freeze occurs.

I could see Doc and CP adding to the snow totals for 2017-18.  NYC not much if at all.

that's if we are on the warm side which still remains to be seen stop b do negative my man!! Just bring it south enough to give us some snow here guys this has been stinking big time!

[amugs]

The models don't see the press of this Negative EPO - remember Dec and the arguments we had here??

The Models show teh massive wave break in this region and the N off teh WC shows where that LP should exit off the East Coast. That is usually the rule of meteorological thumb by Big Momma Nature.
How about this EPO - give us this in Jan and it becomes brutal cold ala 2014-15 winter!!



DAM good look here peeps by the EPS - we get this watch out above it.

[Math23x7]

That's exactly right mugs, if this was January, we'd be in business with this -EPO. But since it's March, it's not going to help out as much, especially for the city.

[jmanley32]

Eyro was a huge snowstorm just north and west of 95 and increases as u go north. Dunno why frank said it's all rain as usual doc and cp see Godzilla totals from all the runs today. I'm coming up to live there.

[billg315]

It’s certainly cold enough today for a snowstorm. Just went out and it’s that raw gusty cold with flurries flying. Basically looking at the current pattern we are in, I’d say as long as this storm stays south and east of us (not toooo far south and east) we’ll get snow. The only way we see rain is if it cuts to our west, or as Frank said it remains a double barrel low that doesn’t transfer its energy off the coast until its almost north of us (similar to the March 1-2 storm). Although even in that scenario I’d expect it to end as snow and if at night, to accumulate.

[RJB8525]

Mt Holly lol

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A coastal storm may affect the area Tuesday and Tuesday night,
however the details and therefore any impacts are uncertain at this
time.

[jmanley32]

Mt Holly lol

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A coastal storm may affect the area Tuesday and Tuesday night,
however the details and therefore any impacts are uncertain at this
time.

well that explained a lot lol

[SoulSingMG]

It will be a MILLER B, and it will snow to the coast with the anomalous cold airmass waiting for her. Philly to NYC I-95 special, SNE as well tho Beantown will not be the jackpot. There you have it. My forecast.

P.s. I have support from the wx gods on this ;-)

[amugs]

That's exactly right mugs, if this was January, we'd be in business with this -EPO.  But since it's March, it's not going to help out as much, especially for the city.

Mike I strongly disagree with this.
If we get a N4/5 SD EPO with a NAO block the cold will  one and get trapped underneath. You HP doesn't just slide out as easy even with a N 2SD NAO. The Frick ingredients heat engine of NYC is a joke and it could be the middle of JAN and 30*out and snow will have an issue stuking. AND it is not due to the climate it's due to the massive amounts of thermal dynamics underground with that place, all the utilities, subway, etc as eell as jsut heat from the buildings produced. Manhattan more so,  not da Bronx or King of Queens as much.

This is storm going to press S as it comes across.where the trough is off the west coast is where you see it exit off the east coast. Going to be fun to track and please let's not take op runs verbatim here they will be all over the place with rain (some will flip and throw in the towel and say see) others will show snow and (weenies will jump for joy) only both to be flipped. Lots of time.
End are the way to go here.

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