Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[weatherwatchermom]

hey just read an article on our local patch and saw that Accuweather is suppressing the next threat to the south..with no chance of hitting us...

[sroc4]

hey just read an article on our local patch and saw that Accuweather is suppressing the next threat to the south..with no chance of hitting us...

Right where we want it at this time:

[dkodgis]

Another three weeks of ... winter!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Another three weeks of ... winter!

Damian:

Resend your PM from yesterday. Mine all got deleted somehow,

[Guest]

hey just read an article on our local patch and saw that Accuweather is suppressing the next threat to the south..with no chance of hitting us...

Right where we want it at this time:  

I may cry uncle. Scott how’d you do?

[sroc4]

hey just read an article on our local patch and saw that Accuweather is suppressing the next threat to the south..with no chance of hitting us...

Right where we want it at this time:  

I may cry uncle.  Scott how’d you do?

Just under a foot. I wanted real bad to post 12" but couldnt. 11.8"

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

hey just read an article on our local patch and saw that Accuweather is suppressing the next threat to the south..with no chance of hitting us...

Right where we want it at this time:  

I may cry uncle.  Scott how’d you do?

You will not, you just need a day to recharge. Same thing happened to me after the two foot storm two weeks ago.

[dkodgis]

This really was an interesting storm. Friends in Westchester got 4.5 inches, some much more. I am limited in my understanding of weather but it appears this was a burst thing where narrow bands of snow really kicked butt and the effects were quite localized within a few miles. I see some parts of Rockland got five inches. Nothing, five, or 12+ seem to be the three corners of snow readings here. I did not see this storm as a bust. I learned a lot from the postings here by the experts. Weather a funny thing.

[sroc4]

hey just read an article on our local patch and saw that Accuweather is suppressing the next threat to the south..with no chance of hitting us...

Right where we want it at this time:  

I may cry uncle.  Scott how’d you do?

You will not, you just need a day to recharge. Same thing happened to me after the two foot storm two weeks ago.

Yeah lets jump right into it shall we.  

Somewhere around April 1st to be exact. Here are the EPS and the GEFS Mean 500mb pattern.  Once again Pattern recognition is vital.  Will it happen??...who knows.  Will the coast snow???...Odds are against it.  IF it happens at all areas N&W are favored for accumulating snows.  Blah Blah Blah..

All this said look below:

You can see that both model suites indicate some form of North Atlantic blocking, a potent -EPO block with a trough S of the Aleutian Islands, a + PNA ridge, a polar vortex sitting around the Hudson Bay due to said blocking, spokes of energy diving into the CONUS around the PV from the N, and subtropical and/or Pac energy entering the CONUS from the S.  The pattern is such that a trough is likely in the east and cyclogenesis somewhere on or near the coast is likely after this time frame....say March 30th-April 2nd.  And with a cold air mass sitting to our north there is still cold enough air mass available to snow all the way down to the coast if it all comes together JUUUSSTTT right.  "Baby Bear" 





WE

TRACK!!!

[sroc4]

hey just read an article on our local patch and saw that Accuweather is suppressing the next threat to the south..with no chance of hitting us...

Right where we want it at this time:  

I may cry uncle.  Scott how’d you do?

The threat that is being supressed to the south would be for Sunday Monday ish. That actually does look like that will happen BUT as we haver all seen we will look for the NW trend as we get in tight. How far ehh I dont think we have to worry but well see.

[Vinnydula]

Do we really believe this Strom is this far south

[jmanley32]

Oh ur kidding me more storms?! Please can we wait till I am on break the week after next lol

[Frank_Wx]

I am expecting 1 more snowfall event N&W of NYC. For the coast, there is a chance we also see accumulating snow. April 1st to April 7th is the time frame.

Scott, nice write up.

[frank 638]

Oh ur kidding me more storms?! Please can we wait till I am on break the week after next lol

hopefully​ this will be our storm

[Guest]

I am expecting 1 more snowfall event N&W of NYC. For the coast, there is a chance we also see accumulating snow. April 1st to April 7th is the time frame.

Scott, nice write up.

[rb924119]

Scott, FANTUBLOUS write-up, as usual, and glad to see our fearless leader already on board. We have our conductor, I'm probably going to get my ticket soon so I can board the train (pending further analysis), who else would consider taking a ride on the next storm threat train?!!!! WOOOOOOO-WOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

[frank 638]

Scott, FANTUBLOUS write-up, as usual, and glad to see our fearless leader already on board. We have our conductor, I'm probably going to get my ticket soon so I can board the train (pending further analysis), who else would consider taking a ride on the next storm threat train?!!!! WOOOOOOO-WOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

count me in wooooooooo wooooooooo

[Aiosamoney21]

ALL ABOARD THE NJ STRONG EXPRESS!! Count me in guys!!1 Lets get one more storm to send winter out with a bang!!

[docstox12]

Scott, FANTUBLOUS write-up, as usual, and glad to see our fearless leader already on board. We have our conductor, I'm probably going to get my ticket soon so I can board the train (pending further analysis), who else would consider taking a ride on the next storm threat train?!!!! WOOOOOOO-WOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

I'm with you !!! Let's have an April 1982 repeat!

[rb924119]

As it stands right now, I'M ALL IN ON THE MARCH 30th-APRIL 3rd STORM THREAT. ALL IN. I cannot elaborate as to why, but I think the key feature to watch as to whether the coast will be in play for even more substantial snow is the presence (or absence of a 50/50 low. If it's there, the coast likely snows again, if not, it's the interior's storm, all my opinion, of course. Why does this matter? Because the main ridge axis is SO far back, though I do think we will see an increasing trend in the PNA region as modeling collectively picks up on the separation of the eastern Pacific cutoff low, and our southern stream system of interest. However, especially this time of year, with the ridge axis being so far back, even with the expected increase in PNA heights, the 50/50 low will be critical to suppress the flow enough to get the coast a substantial chance of snow. Otherwise, the storm track would likely end up too close to the coast, at all levels, to be of benefit for the coast. But the interior would get it. The EURO Ensembles DO NOT have this 50/50, GFS Ensembles do. Hard to say which is right, but knowing how wavelengths shorten this time of year, I can easily see how, and am borderline expecting it to end up being real, and the EURO Ensembles picking it up eventually. Have to see, though.

[Sparky Sparticles]

ALL ABOARD THE NJ STRONG EXPRESS!! Count me in guys!!1 Lets get one more storm to send winter out with a bang!!

I thought that’s what Toby was supposed to do. At least let me get a car out from under all the plow plops and snowblower excretions and get food for Easter dinner the end of next week. Please?

[rb924119]

It's also VERY interesting to me to see that we may not be dealing with just one system during this period, but TWO. It could play out that we see an initial front-running wave that serves as a southwest flow type of event, which then would act as the 50/50 low to set the stage for the next northern stream piece that digs rapidly into the CONUS *BEHIND OR SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH* the rest of the southern stream energy that ejects out of the Southwest (potential phase). Maybe others can elaborate on these ideas further in my stead, as I unfortunately, do not have the time :/

[rb924119]

Also better be on the lookout for snow squalls this weekend in advance of the vigorous arctic shortwave ripping southward across our area.

[aiannone]

Hot damn!

[jmanley32]

Hot damn!

how cold is that in ferenheit

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Hot damn!

how cold is that in ferenheit

While you have to remember that those are 850 temperatures so they're not at the surface.

But they are -10 centigrade so 14°F right over New York City

[toople]

I am expecting 1 more snowfall event N&W of NYC. For the coast, there is a chance we also see accumulating snow. April 1st to April 7th is the time frame.

Scott, nice write up.

You’re kidding!

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