Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[amugs]

Great detailed post as usual Scott.
Remember the N EPO will send the HP through the Upper Midwest & North Country and the low level cold air will press (Banana High look here) on the EPS below). The position of that HP is going to be a factor of course in the evolution if this storm. OP runs will NOT see this but ENS will do a better job of seeing such. Again as with potent storms details within the 12- 48 time frame are when we see what is going to things shape up.

I love this look of the EURO EPS location of he Nor'easter. This has a classic look to it IMO. MANY major snowstorm analogs have had this look. Lets see if we can get this bad boy to bring us some luv!
PB map


Earthlight indicy maps here thx
Snowfall - this is impressive at this stage - stickage on the furnace is a different story - burbs and ruburbs yes


Half filled or Half Empty tis the question??

Remember this is based on 10:1 ratio.  Earlier this week, CPK had 0.28" qpf in the form of snow, which by 10:1 ratio would be 2.8" of snow but it ended up with a trace since it was above freezing.  Last week, CPK had 1.39" qpf in the form of snow which by 10:1 ratio would be 13.9" of snow but it ended up with 3.2" since it was, you guessed it, above freezing.

Mike yes you are correct. The fact that it sees this much snowfall in this range is WOW worthy for this time of year. Stickage is a different story of course and as I said the heat engine of NYC needs 30* and lower for snow to stick and even then DeBlasio will turn up the pressure of the underground steam pipes (increase pressure = increase temperature) and it won't stick. NYC is a mini microclimate, face it. Climo preferes N and W of the city for this time in March. Cp and Doc and the rest of those in the HV , NWNJ are cashing in and should be even more.
Look at this map for March so far = epic for some (not KYNC of course)

[Guest]

It'll stick out here on northern LI not even a concern of mine. Lower ratios but still...

[SNOW MAN]

Great detailed post as usual Scott.
Remember the N EPO will send the HP through the Upper Midwest & North Country and the low level cold air will press (Banana High look here) on the EPS below). The position of that HP is going to be a factor of course in the evolution if this storm. OP runs will NOT see this but ENS will do a better job of seeing such. Again as with potent storms details within the 12- 48 time frame are when we see what is going to things shape up.

I love this look of the EURO EPS location of he Nor'easter. This has a classic look to it IMO. MANY major snowstorm analogs have had this look. Lets see if we can get this bad boy to bring us some luv!
PB map


Earthlight indicy maps here thx
Snowfall - this is impressive at this stage - stickage on the furnace is a different story - burbs and ruburbs yes


Half filled or Half Empty tis the question??

Remember this is based on 10:1 ratio.  Earlier this week, CPK had 0.28" qpf in the form of snow, which by 10:1 ratio would be 2.8" of snow but it ended up with a trace since it was above freezing.  Last week, CPK had 1.39" qpf in the form of snow which by 10:1 ratio would be 13.9" of snow but it ended up with 3.2" since it was, you guessed it, above freezing.

Mike yes you are correct. The fact that it sees this much snowfall in this range is WOW worthy for this time of year. Stickage is a different story of course and as I said the heat engine of NYC needs 30* and lower for snow to stick and even then DeBlasio will turn up the pressure of the underground steam pipes (increase pressure = increase temperature) and it won't stick. NYC is a mini microclimate, face it.  Climo preferes N and W of the city for this time in March. Cp and Doc and the rest of those in the HV , NWNJ are cashing in and should be even more.
Look at this map for March so far = epic for some (not KYNC of course)

Mugs will this effect the members in EPA also ? Especially those living right across the Delaware River such as myself ? Thanks.

[sroc4]

[quote="SNOW MAN"][quote="amugs"][quote="Math23x7"]

Great detailed post as usual Scott.



Mugs will this effect the members in EPA also ? Especially those living right across the Delaware River such as myself ? Thanks.

Snow man Almost always there will be a screw zone with a Miller B set up. The area between the primary cutting low and the newly developing low there usually is an area of subsidence. Where it all plays out depends on where the primary and secondary track. Your area may have to watch for this.

[SNOW MAN]

Thanks Sroc. I'll be checking in often to see how things play out. I'll be hoping for a nice hit, but we shall see.

[rb924119]

One thing I am noticing is our Pacific short wave that ejects is coniuously being progged to eject further and further south. Interesting development to me, as it it continues to look more and more and similar to Christmas 2002, but also in the fact that if this continues and is the result we may end up looking at much more Miller-A'ish type of storm instead of a Miller B. You want your HECS? That's how. The Gulf would be more than ready, willing, and able to release its moisture out ahead of this increasingly deepening shortwave as it traverses the country and then runs headfirst into our block as it starts pumping western Atlantic heights and starts the turn northeastward. Gotta see how this continues to evolve, as this could really turn into something spectacular IF this type of evolution continues. BIG IF.

[Guest]

Is this thing destined to be a coastal no matter what or is there one last glimmer of hope for me?

[rb924119]

ITS COMING THIS RUN

[rb924119]

Is this thing destined to be a coastal no matter what or is there one last glimmer of hope for me?

You see any fat lady, and hear any singing?? I don't. Besides, you already threw in your towel for this season

[docstox12]

NWS now tooting the all snow horn up here in the Hudson Valley.Snow from Monday night to Wednesday night.Long disco on the matter.Even Lee Goldberg was on board last night after waffling Tuesday night saying it was moving S and E on his interpretation and we would have a light snow event.Days away so anything can happen, but definitely something is flashing.

Good morning Doc. The thing that makes me nervous is when the media starts agreeing that there's going to be a storm. That could be the KOD for our event.  

Hi SNOWMAN! Yep, early pumping by the media is KOD worthy all right, but I've seen snowstorms where NOAA, as heard on my Weather Cube Radio by Radio Shack, started calling for a foot or more 3 or 4 days out and having it actually happen! You never know with these things until the morning the storm hits.

[Guest]

Doc go to banter. It’s eye opening

[rb924119]

GFS DELIVERS BIGLY!!!!! PATTERN RECOGNITION FOLKS, THE SIGNS HAVE BEEN THERE AND NOW WE MIGHT BE SEEING THE FRUITS OF THEM ALL. VERY NEARLY AN HISTORIC RUN OF THE GFS!!!!

[docstox12]

Doc go to banter.  It’s eye opening

Jimmy, it made my day, amazingly hilarious!!!

[Guest]

HECS

Code:

 :party:  :shocked:

[Guest]

Doc go to banter.  It’s eye opening

Jimmy, it made my day, amazingly hilarious!!!

Why’s it so hilarious? I actually think I look pretty good.......but not as good as the latest GFS

[essexcountypete]

GFS DELIVERS BIGLY!!!!! PATTERN RECOGNITION FOLKS, THE SIGNS HAVE BEEN THERE AND NOW WE MIGHT BE SEEING THE FRUITS OF THEM ALL. VERY NEARLY AN HISTORIC RUN OF THE GFS!!!!

Stuck in a legal seminar so I can't really look. Do the model pictures tell the story, or are you seeing the potential for what may be?

[nutleyblizzard]

Anybody got a GFS clown map? Ought to be a hoot!

[rb924119]

GFS DELIVERS BIGLY!!!!! PATTERN RECOGNITION FOLKS, THE SIGNS HAVE BEEN THERE AND NOW WE MIGHT BE SEEING THE FRUITS OF THEM ALL. VERY NEARLY AN HISTORIC RUN OF THE GFS!!!!

Stuck in a legal seminar so I can't really look. Do the model pictures tell the story, or are you seeing the potential for what may be?

BOTH. At face value alone it was 40 hours of snow with 1-2' from I-78 northward. BUT........it was fractions away from being much better than that. H5 was still a little wonky, and if we can hone in and bundle the energy a bit better (like the GFS has been prone to mess up), you're talking a Roidzilla with room to spare. So, so, so close. CMC was also a Godzilla from I-78 south. We are ALL in this game!!

[weatherwatchermom]

GFS DELIVERS BIGLY!!!!! PATTERN RECOGNITION FOLKS, THE SIGNS HAVE BEEN THERE AND NOW WE MIGHT BE SEEING THE FRUITS OF THEM ALL. VERY NEARLY AN HISTORIC RUN OF THE GFS!!!!

Stuck in a legal seminar so I can't really look. Do the model pictures tell the story, or are you seeing the potential for what may be?

BOTH. At face value alone it was 40 hours of snow with 1-2' from I-78 northward. BUT........it was fractions away from being much better than that. H5 was still a little wonky, and if we can hone in and bundle the energy a bit better (like the GFS has been prone to mess up), you're talking a Roidzilla with room to spare. So, so, so close. CMC was also a Godzilla from I-78 south. We are ALL in this game!!

not getting sucked in...but following..and thanks for posting in all caps and not running away..

[Guest]

Weathermom.  I know it’s off topic but we are posting pics of ourselves in Banter

[Guest]

Is this thing destined to be a coastal no matter what or is there one last glimmer of hope for me?

You see any fat lady, and hear any singing?? I don't. Besides, you already threw in your towel for this season

Between the southward trend mentioned earlier and the transfer of the low off the coast, it looks like one for you guys. Unless there's something in the pattern that I'm overlooking.

[essexcountypete]

Anybody got a GFS clown map? Ought to be a hoot!

My kingdom for a clown map!

Never mind, it's better if I don't see it. I won't get another thing done, and F5 will be my downfall. NO ONE POST ANY MAPS!

[SNOW MAN]

NWS now tooting the all snow horn up here in the Hudson Valley.Snow from Monday night to Wednesday night.Long disco on the matter.Even Lee Goldberg was on board last night after waffling Tuesday night saying it was moving S and E on his interpretation and we would have a light snow event.Days away so anything can happen, but definitely something is flashing.

Good morning Doc. The thing that makes me nervous is when the media starts agreeing that there's going to be a storm. That could be the KOD for our event.  

Hi SNOWMAN! Yep, early pumping by the media is KOD worthy all right, but I've seen snowstorms where NOAA, as heard on my Weather Cube Radio by Radio Shack, started calling for a foot or more 3 or 4 days out and having it actually happen! You never know with these things until the morning the storm hits.

Doc, I still have my Radio Shack Weather Cube packed away somewhere in it's original box.

[rb924119]

Is this thing destined to be a coastal no matter what or is there one last glimmer of hope for me?

You see any fat lady, and hear any singing?? I don't. Besides, you already threw in your towel for this season

Between the southward trend mentioned earlier and the transfer of the low off the coast, it looks like one for you guys. Unless there's something in the pattern that I'm overlooking.  

What south trend? There's no established trend yet. We are still seeing the operational runs bouncing all over the place, like they will continue to do for the next few days. The Ensembles are remaining fairly steady state, at least at H5, which is what matters. Today's GFS looked pretty good to me, though I think the coastal that develops will track tighter to the coast and take more of a NNE heading versus its modeled ENE heading at present. I also believe that the highest totals will be inland from the coast as the larger hemispheric argues for a further north track. The CMC was too far south to me, and while the GFS was close to my ideas, I think the result will be a little further north than that which puts you in the ball game like the rest of us.

[Guest]

When I said south trend, I was referring to this part of a post you made earlier: Pacific short wave that ejects is coniuously being progged to eject further and further south. I took "continuously progged" to mean trend. I apologize if I misunderstood.

[Guest]

When I said south trend, I was referring to this part of a post you made earlier: Pacific short wave that ejects is coniuously being progged to eject further and further south. I took "continuously progged" to mean trend. I apologize if I misunderstood.

Makes sense Aresian. I hear you

[rb924119]

When I said south trend, I was referring to this part of a post you made earlier: Pacific short wave that ejects is coniuously being progged to eject further and further south. I took "continuously progged" to mean trend. I apologize if I misunderstood.

Oo oo oooo!!! No, you're right, that was entirely my misunderstanding. I thought you were referencing the track of the snow and surface feature. Ok, so the Pacific shortwave ejecting further south is a good thing for a few reasons. First, it will mean more energy will eject with it instead of being held back in the parent trough that backs further off the West Coast as our Pacific shortwave begins heading east. Secondly and consequently, this will mean a much slower, and more amplified "bowling ball" solution, which means our system will have a much larger "punch" with it. Third, with a further south track, it allows that much more Gulf moisture to get involved (the further south it is, the closer to the moisture source it is and can more easily draw it northward. Fourth, with all of this, it gives us a true shot at phase with northern stream energy diving down from Canada to really take our storm to the next level, but also allow it to largely amplify and raise heights out ahead of it so it can "make the turn" northeast and head in our direction rather than just slide harmlessly to our south. However, because it gets further south initially and in conjunction with the blocking, it mitigates the risk of having heights rise too much such that too much warm air gets involved and we all go to rain. With this type of evolution, if you wan your HECS, that's the perfect evolution. So I think we are looking VERY GOOD right now, region-wide, as my personal thoughts on the outcome are only those; thoughts. Not certainty (so don't fret yet coasties lol).

As a additional point: MY GOD THE UKMET IS AMAZING!!!! MATCHES MY THOUGHTS TO A "T" AND WOW H5 LOOKS INSANE!!!!! H5 WOULD LIKELY CLOSE OFF OVER THE DELMARVA OR VERY NEAR, WITH A PHASE OF BOTH STREAMS!!!!

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