Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[jmanley32]

Ensemble mean snowfall map is barely any snow that 1.0 qpf that hugs the coast is almost all rain verbatim.

[jmanley32]

MEAN pecip is over 1" , that is a very high ceiling with this storm when you get a mean pumping out that kind of moisture.
A hybrid storm on the GEFS with an overrunning then a transfer to a coastal bomb that crawls the coast.
Vernbatim the shores would get damaged .

ENS run not an OP here peeps.

Wow. With the slow moving nature of this event along with a pressing high to the north, I can only imagine what would happen if this monster takes the traditional BM track. They would be measuring snow in feet from DC to B-oston.

I looked on the wx bell maps, verbatim none of the ensembles are that impressive, yet anyways, and the mean translates to mainly rain per their maps.

[amugs]

MEAN pecip is over 1" , that is a very high ceiling with this storm when you get a mean pumping out that kind of moisture.
A hybrid storm on the GEFS with an overrunning then a transfer to a coastal bomb that crawls the coast.
Vernbatim the shores would get damaged .

ENS run not an OP here peeps.

Wow. With the slow moving nature of this event along with a pressing high to the north, I can only imagine what would happen if this monster takes the traditional BM track. They would be measuring snow in feet from DC to B-oston.

I looked on the wx bell maps, verbatim none of the ensembles are that impressive, yet anyways, and the mean translates to mainly rain per their maps.

Look at e46 on rhe EPS and it is a monster originating from the GOM after shooting south out of the sw and rides up the coast. 
The ENS mean is there. 
Temp profiles at this range are off.
Banana HP with the EPO press will deliver low level cold air. 
The synoptic set up is there and ripe.
I really don't know what ENS Jan you looked at but these are impressive.

[docstox12]

NWS disco firmer with the coastal storm this morning.Precip type depends on sun angle this time of year and preponderance of E NE winds.Right now, looks like interior sections have all snow which is their forecast for me in the HV but they say it could be a possibility for all snow to the coast as well.Hoping for an area wide 20 inch snowstorm, especially for Al and J man who have been short changed this winter.Tracking fun!!!!

[SNOW MAN]

Good morning Doc. I just watched the weather on Channel 4 in NY. That Met said it wouldn't be that intense of a storm. I think he's being a little premature with that call don't you.

[docstox12]

Good morning Doc. I just watched the weather on Channel 4 in NY. That Met said it wouldn't be that intense of a storm. I think he's being a little premature with that call don't you.

Good morning SNOWMAN.Yes, I would say that is premature as NWS is feeling just the opposite.Still 4 days away so more time has to pass before we get a handle on this one.

[SNOW MAN]

Hoping we'll get more info from our experts on the board this morning about this potential storm. I'm just hoping it's good news for everyone on here. I'm just wondering if this will be our last snow threat for this year or could there possibly be more.

[SENJsnowman]

NWS disco firmer with the coastal storm this morning.Precip type depends on sun angle this time of year and preponderance of E NE winds.Right now, looks like interior sections have all snow which is their forecast for me in the HV but they say it could be a possibility for all snow to the coast as well.Hoping for an area wide 20 inch snowstorm, especially for Al and J man who have been short changed this winter.Tracking fun!!!!

Hey Doc! Thanks for always looking out for us coasties! I think the good karma you built up by rooting us on throughout Dec-Jan, has already come to back to repay you bigly in Feb-Mar! ha ha

Our problem living on the coast is that at a certain point the 'snow to the coast' stops. The question for us always is, where is the southernmost point of 'all snow to the coast' this time? Alot of times it's LI. Sometimes it's even north of that into southern CT. I guess NYC sometimes, but it feels like most of the time the northern gradient is the NJ TPK or I-195, basically cutting out all of the Shore.

I'm thinking that fate awaits us again this go round. We've had accumulating snows in March the last few years, but never from a coastal. Once you get as far south as Monmouth and Ocean counties, I think the gulf stream is still too strong or something.

I guess you guys have the same issues: just how far n and w does 'interior' mean this time? We have to worry about track and temp, you have to worry about track and precip shield. Only LI is guaranteed to be cold enough and close enough! lol

So, it is what it is and it will be what it will be. I'll just follow the action and root for the snow. I guess it's like watching a ball game...for 5 days!

[Guest]

Upton

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Potential storm is looking likely toward the end of the forecast
period, although exact forecast details remain in question.

However, global models in remarkable agreement on potent low moving
out of the mid west toward the Mid Atlantic coast by Tuesday.
Multiple low pressure centers, or one deepening low, slowly move
across the western Atlantic, passing just south of the region
Wednesday and Thursday.

This will set the stage for increasing NE/E winds, and significant
precipitation, especially from Tuesday night through Thursday.

As for precipitation type this far out, a rain/snow mix near the
coast during the daytime is possible, but cannot rule out
predominately snow either.

[jmanley32]

Upton

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Potential storm is looking likely toward the end of the forecast
period, although exact forecast details remain in question.

However, global models in remarkable agreement on potent low moving
out of the mid west toward the Mid Atlantic coast by Tuesday.
Multiple low pressure centers, or one deepening low, slowly move
across the western Atlantic, passing just south of the region
Wednesday and Thursday.

This will set the stage for increasing NE/E winds, and significant
precipitation, especially from Tuesday night through Thursday.

As for precipitation type this far out, a rain/snow mix near the
coast during the daytime is possible, but cannot rule out
predominately snow either.

wed Thurs now huh so we have 5 or 6 days left to track great lol

[docstox12]

NWS disco firmer with the coastal storm this morning.Precip type depends on sun angle this time of year and preponderance of E NE winds.Right now, looks like interior sections have all snow which is their forecast for me in the HV but they say it could be a possibility for all snow to the coast as well.Hoping for an area wide 20 inch snowstorm, especially for Al and J man who have been short changed this winter.Tracking fun!!!!

Hey Doc! Thanks for always looking out for us coasties! I think the good karma you built up by rooting us on throughout Dec-Jan, has already come to back to repay you bigly in Feb-Mar! ha ha

Our problem living on the coast is that at a certain point the 'snow to the coast' stops. The question for us always is, where is the southernmost point of 'all snow to the coast' this time? Alot of times it's LI. Sometimes it's even north of that into southern CT. I guess NYC sometimes, but it feels like most of the time the northern gradient is the NJ TPK or I-195, basically cutting out all of the Shore.

I'm thinking that fate awaits us again this go round. We've had accumulating snows in March the last few years, but never from a coastal. Once you get as far south as Monmouth and Ocean counties, I think the gulf stream is still too strong or something.

I guess you guys have the same issues: just how far n and w does 'interior' mean this time? We have to worry about track and temp, you have to worry about track and precip shield. Only LI is guaranteed to be cold enough and close enough! lol

So, it is what it is and it will be what it will be. I'll just follow the action and root for the snow. I guess it's like watching a ball game...for 5 days!

No problem SENJ! My Sister, a snow lover like me, lives in Ocean Grove, so I am always hoping the coast and LI get good ones, even if I get shut out being too far N and W.That's why I always hope for area wide snowstorms so everybody on our board can enjoy it and post all during the storm.This storm does have the possibility of all snow everywhere as Jimmy juts posted above in the Upton disco.As you say, it's a long ballgame here watching the models.Let's see what our long range crew reads in the models coming up.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

This mornings GFS snowfall map. As always this far out it most likely won't happen as depicted but always fun to look at.

[Guest]

Not that I’m saying it will have the same impacts because I’m not BUT........the way all the models are similar in track and somewhat intensity, AND the way the media is talking about this upcoming storm, all 4 to 5 days out this is starting to remind me of the superstorm of 1993.  

Heck it’s  the lead story on the local news radio stations already

aND THE SCI is already up to 50%

[mikeypizano]

aND THE SCI is already up to 50%

IMO, Frank should change that to possibility of a snow storm in general, not 1" in CP...

[Taffy]

Is a storm coming out of the West on the track this one appears to be on a Miller A or B?

[Guest]

Taffy. Miller b’s are storms that look like they will track west and then re-develop off the coast. They are more hit and miss for our area and favor areas more up in New England. Miller A storms track from the southern states up the eastern seaboard. They are usually bigger storms for us and are responsible for most of our memorable snowstorms. This threat started off looking like a miller b but is trending towards a miller a

[Taffy]

Jim. Thanks so much! My next question was if they were like blood types and could be AB's lol. You answered in a very clear way that I could understand.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Not that I’m saying it will have the same impacts because I’m not BUT........the way all the models are similar in track and somewhat intensity, AND the way the media is talking about this upcoming storm, all 4 to 5 days out this is starting to remind me of the superstorm of 1993.  

Heck it’s  the lead story on the local news radio stations already

aND THE SCI is already up to 50%

Better minds than mine can comment but I don't see that at all, at least in it's evolution and path.

I'll take the same end results though.

[docstox12]

Not that I’m saying it will have the same impacts because I’m not BUT........the way all the models are similar in track and somewhat intensity, AND the way the media is talking about this upcoming storm, all 4 to 5 days out this is starting to remind me of the superstorm of 1993.  

Heck it’s  the lead story on the local news radio stations already

aND THE SCI is already up to 50%

Better minds than mine can comment but I don't see that at all, at least in it's evolution and path.

I'll take the same end results though.

I'll take the results Lake Wallenpaupack in PA had with the '93 storm...36 inches!

[Frank_Wx]

New thread for next week's storm

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t909-winter-s-finale-march-20th-21st-snowstorm

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Not that I’m saying it will have the same impacts because I’m not BUT........the way all the models are similar in track and somewhat intensity, AND the way the media is talking about this upcoming storm, all 4 to 5 days out this is starting to remind me of the superstorm of 1993.  

Heck it’s  the lead story on the local news radio stations already

aND THE SCI is already up to 50%

Better minds than mine can comment but I don't see that at all, at least in it's evolution and path.

I'll take the same end results though.

I'll take the results Lake Wallenpaupack in PA had with the '93 storm...36 inches!

We had 24 here, 3-4 inches of it sleet. WOuld have been 3 feet easy if the sleet didn't happen.

Syracuse had 43 inches in that storm. Syos parents house in the Catskills I believe had 98.6 inches, as per his reliable measurements. That also could have been his temperature that day, I forget which it was.

[SNOW MAN]

The 93 storm dumped 38" at my location that's including about 4-5 inches of sleet.

[SNOW MAN]

Just watched Glen Hurricane Schwartz on the Philly station. He said this possible storm would start on Tuesday around late morning and end Thursday morning. He said it would be a long duration event. I can't wait to hear from our forecasters on the board.
Frank, thanks for the great write up in the other thread.

[sroc4]

CMC wants to throw a nice over running event at us next weekend with a 1044 HP and a very interestingly placed baroclinic zone.  This would likely produce a nice mod event if it occurred verbatim. Do Not be surprised if we are tracking something like this by mid late week.  

[amugs]

CMC wants to throw a nice over running event at us next weekend with a 1044 HP and a very interestingly placed baroclinic zone.  This would likely produce a nice mod event if it occurred verbatim. Do Not be surprised if we are tracking something like this by mid late week.  

Scott,
we lose the NAO overall but the NATL is so jammed up it may take a week to clear it out after our next storm next weekend and may enhance 50/50's. EPO looks to hang in there and the PNA rise seems to be in the means. There seems to be a jet retraction in the PAC again that will aid in this. So what does this mean - snow chances extended and Spring will be delayed maybe through mid April if the MT stays as is and teh Jet retraction forecasts holds.

We looked at this for February but were two weeks off - not bad IMO but still wish it were then casu eteh air mass at 7SD Bn is much different then than Mid March - Oh well!

From some readings and research this maybe a sign of winters to come with more N NAo in teh emans as we head into a dead sun - solar minimum and higher tropical volcanic activity.

[dkodgis]

I noticed the use of remarkable by Upton. And Mugs is right about the dormancy period forecasted for the sun. I don’t think we can predict what that will do but with volcanic activity, warming poles, more extreme weather patterns state-side, and global warmng, it is going to be all Jack in the box.

[petep10]

Too early to post a separate thread. We have to get past the mid week storm first. Winter is not done with us yet. Put those golf clubs back in the closet.






[code]

Of course the GFS is south as usual this winter, but it will probably correct over the next few days.

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