Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[jmanley32]

So which is right or are the gfs and euro finally for once in agreement? Was cmc also on board? Last night it showed 12 for me about. I best not get under that snowing but not snowing thing again.

[jmanley32]

EURO!!!!!!

Show us something!

it's a mothrazilla to Godzilla for some local areas.

[Dunnzoo]

After the disappointment of this past storm for me and mugsy and NENJ, I am not getting sucked in again! Besides, I will be in sunny Florida at spring training and I don't want to miss anything!

[weatherwatchermom]

After the disappointment of this past storm for me and mugsy and NENJ, I am not getting sucked in again! Besides, I will be in sunny Florida at spring training and I don't want to miss anything!

come on take one for the team...look what happened the last time someone on the group did....we had a foot of snow..

[skinsfan1177]

I think this setup coming up is better than past one for coastal areas

[jmanley32]

Cmc was a kick to the head for coast everyone on board does great Godzilla except coast.

[frank 638]

Sounds good jamley we need a couple good snow storm to make up for a losy Feb .now what about NYC

[SoulSingMG]

EURO!!!!!!

Show us something!

I was driving, rahhhhlax! Lol. 10 inches over Manhattan on the 12z run

[adamfitz1969]

[adamfitz1969]

[Dunnzoo]

After the disappointment of this past storm for me and mugsy and NENJ, I am not getting sucked in again! Besides, I will be in sunny Florida at spring training and I don't want to miss anything!

come on take one for the team...look what happened the last time someone on the group did....we had a foot of snow..

Haha true Joanne! I'm just selfish, about 10" below average snow this season, and I WANT MORE! although if we do get it and I'm not here, it still counts!

[jmanley32]

Sounds good jamley we need a couple good snow storm to make up for a losy Feb .now what about NYC

well of course after this one I'm very cautious but gfs and euro agree down to coast a high end mothrazilla. Cmc on it's own having the snow all well inland except few inches on coast maybe. But it's 5 days away I'm not taking it seriously.

[weatherwatchermom]

After the disappointment of this past storm for me and mugsy and NENJ, I am not getting sucked in again! Besides, I will be in sunny Florida at spring training and I don't want to miss anything!

come on take one for the team...look what happened the last time someone on the group did....we had a foot of snow..

Haha true Joanne! I'm just selfish, about 10" below average snow this season, and I WANT MORE! although if we do get it and I'm not here, it still counts!

ha ha..could not resist..feel the same way..I hope you have a wonderful trip!!!

ps..we are all a little selfish when it comes to snow...did you see my post earlier...shh don't tell anyone in my house I said it...lol

[skinsfan1177]

Coastal areas don't want a tucked low we rain until it pulls away I'll will take a track just inside BM please

[SoulSingMG]

Quite the ensemble, ay?

[WeatherBob]

That’s got like 15 in over me, come on! After what we just went thru? It this a bad joke that the EU is playing on us?

[frank 638]

My fingers are crossed at this point I would take a foot of snow and I will be happy

[jmanley32]

Quite the ensemble, ay?

way to many of those are way inland would like see more off coast but judge by that snow map some must b bombs.

[SoulSingMG]

High percentages for 6"+ this far out:

[jmanley32]

High percentages for 6"+ this far out:

wow ya that is. Here's hoping we got hosed on this one buddy let's reel in wed for a big snow.

[Grselig]

I'm signing the contract right now!!!! VERIFY

[Math23x7]

I know a lot of weather enthusiasts are excited over what the 12Z ECMWF had to say regarding the potential snow for next week in our area.  And looking at both the precipitation type and the frozen qpf it's no surprise they're excited:

Precip type at 7 AM EST Wednesday:



Precip type at 1 PM EST Wednesday:



Precip type at 7 PM EST Wednesday:



Frozen qpf through 10 PM Est Wednesday:



If there's anything we've seen from this past system.  It's that if the snow isnt coming down heavily, the surface temperatures are marginal, and it's under the March sun, you won't much in the way of accumulation.

Here are the 6-hour minimum temperatures:

Through 7 AM EST Wednesday:



Through 1 PM EST Wednesday:



Through 7 PM EST Wednesday:



Unless your dealing with high snowfall rates, it will be tough to stick on roadways.

Also, since this is five days out, it will be interesting if the NW shift occurs in the low, giving rain to the coast and the frozen precip to areas north and west of NYC.

I can see Doc and CP getting some good snow from this given they are at a higher elevation.  After all, they did pretty well with the snow yesterday.

Now, on the EURO, the cold air comes in Wednesday evening after the storm departs.  If this event starts 12 hours later and the cold air is accompanied by it, then I would feel a bit more confident about a widespread 6"+ snow event next week.  For now, I am skeptical.

[WeatherBob]

Math - great presentation! I am with you bud!

[Guest]

Whatever spirit I can muster I'll use to cheer for you guys. You work way too hard tracking these storms to keep missing out.

[SoulSingMG]

Just watched Bernie Rayno's periscope. He mentioned boundary layers yes, but he thinks NYC would be all snow from this would-be storm; also, he mentioned a critical piece to the puzzle which is this injection of cold air coming in Sunday night (see attached screenshot I took of the wave he pointed out). This would mean more cold air to work with than the last storm.

[jmanley32]

Math total snow nyc 0.8 in? thats qpf right so 8 in? That map is way diff than the wxbell, why?

[Grselig]

Just saw the NWS discussion. This far out it seems fairly positive. Sees a possibility of a plowable snow.

"This next shortwave/closed upper low pivots as energy to the north
in Canada dives southward along the backside of the low by mid week.
Many questions arise on exact details as this low pivots east across
the Great Lakes region tracks toward the northeast by Wednesday. How
this eventually evolves is critical, with sfc low
development/placement Wednesday and Wednesday night. Confidence
growing in coastal low development per ensemble members and
operational model solutions. However, placement of coastal low
remains in big question, with various ensemble members forecast a
coastal low, but varying between offshore of LI, or over the local
CWA.

This obviously impacts ptype, but will generally forecast snow, or a
rain/snow mix closer to the coast. Still plenty of time to iron
out any details. A plowable snow is possible."

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