Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[jmanley32]

Math total snow nyc 0.8 in? thats qpf right so 8 in? That map is way diff than the wxbell, why?

[Grselig]

Just saw the NWS discussion. This far out it seems fairly positive. Sees a possibility of a plowable snow.

"This next shortwave/closed upper low pivots as energy to the north
in Canada dives southward along the backside of the low by mid week.
Many questions arise on exact details as this low pivots east across
the Great Lakes region tracks toward the northeast by Wednesday. How
this eventually evolves is critical, with sfc low
development/placement Wednesday and Wednesday night. Confidence
growing in coastal low development per ensemble members and
operational model solutions. However, placement of coastal low
remains in big question, with various ensemble members forecast a
coastal low, but varying between offshore of LI, or over the local
CWA.

This obviously impacts ptype, but will generally forecast snow, or a
rain/snow mix closer to the coast. Still plenty of time to iron
out any details. A plowable snow is possible."

[WeatherBob]

You gotta love Bernie R. I am not going to get excited with tonight’s run or tmrw mornings run if it looks good. I will wait till Sunday nights run based on all the moving parts Bernie has mentioned, to form my opinion. By then, the storm will be 48 hrs away from starting the potential snowfall. Plain and simple

[frank 638]

Sam champion was saying for the next storm we will see more white than​ wet and it's a colder storm to

[nutleyblizzard]

Craig Allen was on tv earlier and said he likes a plowable snow event for all on Wednesday.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

When Syos gets drawn back in here, which should be about noon tomorrow if the threat holds, that's when I'll know this threat is real.

Love what it's showing now. Let's see the same tomorrow night.

[docstox12]

When Syos gets drawn back in here, which should be about noon tomorrow if the threat holds, that's when I'll know this threat is real.

Love what it's showing now. Let's see the same tomorrow night.

Wow, CP, NWS went from rain/snow mix to rain now to all snow for the event.Mugsy, Doc and the rest of the long range crew saw all this a few weeks ago and a tip o' the hat to them!!! Looks very interesting for this upcoming storm!!!

[billg315]

With regard to Mike’s comments on warm surface issues, I understand the concern. I’m one of the first on here to raise the “stickage” issue with late season storms. But there is a big difference between this storm and the one that just past. Low temperature Tuesday morning is forecast to be 27* where I am. The high in the mid-40s. Low Wednesday morning 32*. Last week the low never got below freezing, the high the day before was 60* and the temp at daybreak Friday was 41*. So the ground should be significantly colder, as well as the air temps, at the outset of the storm. Now the storm will still be fighting March sun angle and marginal temps, but there is MUCH colder air at the surface leading up to this - 15 degrees colder at least.

[WeatherBob]

Well by the looks of it, the system is not going anywhere too fast. Look at the blocking to the north and east ( courtesy of our monster still churning out there )

[WeatherBob]

Looks like the NAM is digging the 500;mb farther south this run.

[Math23x7]

With regard to Mike’s comments on warm surface issues, I understand the concern. I’m one of the first on here to raise the “stickage” issue with late season storms. But there is a big difference between this storm and the one that just past. Low temperature Tuesday morning is forecast to be 27* where I am. The high in the mid-40s. Low Wednesday morning 32*. Last week the low never got below freezing, the high the day before was 60* and the temp at daybreak Friday was 41*. So the ground should be significantly colder, as well as the air temps, at the outset of the storm. Now the storm will still be fighting March sun angle and marginal temps, but there is MUCH colder air at the surface leading up to this - 15 degrees colder at least.

Regarding what you mentioned above, I think my personal favorite post-February snowstorm was March 5th, 2015. As you probably know, in the weeks prior, it was bitterly cold. Then, the day before, we had a warm front ahead of a cold front which brought temperatures in the mid 40s. But we still had a very deep snowpack and the cold front was accompanied by a very strong arctic blast with some good qpf. In the early morning hours of the 5th, the temperatures dropped dramatically so that by daybreak, it was in the upper 20s. By midday, it was in the low 20s! In addition, the snowfall rates were up to an inch per hour. So even with March daylight, the high rates and brutal cold temperatures overrode it. 7.5" in CPK, 8" in Bellerose. It was right after this event that we had the deepest snowpack of the winter. It was breathtaking!

Here is the Thread from this forum for that event: https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t507-march-4-5-2015-storm-final-call-obs

Here are the NWS pages:

Upton: https://www.weather.gov/okx/storm03052015

Mount Holly (you need to scroll to the year 2015, then March 5): https://www.weather.gov/phi/archives

[Guest]

My “first call map” for 3/7/18




Green is 4-8” snow
Red is 8-12” locally 14”+ on LI
Blue is <1” mixed with rain

[Scullybutcher]

My “first call map” for 3/7/18




Green is 4-8” snow
Red is 8-12” locally 14”+ on LI
Blue is <1” mixed with rain

Glad to see your map skills are improving. I love the red right over my area

[WeatherBob]

Syos - I have to admit that I like your sense of humor.

[jmanley32]

My “first call map” for 3/7/18




Green is 4-8” snow
Red is 8-12” locally 14”+ on LI
Blue is <1” mixed with rain

This should be in banter as its syo's passive agressive way of scrrewing me, scroc and a few in NJ, it can't be for real.  And the crayon work, man my 4 year old does better. Yes syo I know its a joke but to new posters they may mistake it as real, was why my suggestion was actually legit.

[Guest]

My “first call map” for 3/7/18




Green is 4-8” snow
Red is 8-12” locally 14”+ on LI
Blue is <1” mixed with rain

This should be in banter as its syo's passive agressive way of scrrewing me, scroc and a few in NJ, it can't be for real.  And the crayon work, man my 4 year old does better.  Yes syo I know its a joke but to new posters they may mistake it as real, was why my suggestion was actually legit.

wasn’t trying to screw anyone. It’s just my call. This storm will have its warm tounges too so I’m guessing where they will be

[Grselig]

damn you Syo Damn you. You are probably right. I will be in the screw zone

[jmanley32]

My “first call map” for 3/7/18




Green is 4-8” snow
Red is 8-12” locally 14”+ on LI
Blue is <1” mixed with rain

This should be in banter as its syo's passive agressive way of scrrewing me, scroc and a few in NJ, it can't be for real.  And the crayon work, man my 4 year old does better.  Yes syo I know its a joke but to new posters they may mistake it as real, was why my suggestion was actually legit.

wasn’t trying to screw anyone. It’s just my call. This storm will have its warm tounges too so I’m guessing where they will be

Okayyyy....I do not see your basis on this at all as models are showing pretty solid snows everywhere (as of now, knock on wood), but heck you were right more so than others last time so, let it fly and good luck! But I am those in blue I am pretty sure agree that we hope your dead wrong.

[aiannone]

[Grselig]

My “first call map” for 3/7/18




Green is 4-8” snow
Red is 8-12” locally 14”+ on LI
Blue is <1” mixed with rain

This should be in banter as its syo's passive agressive way of scrrewing me, scroc and a few in NJ, it can't be for real.  And the crayon work, man my 4 year old does better.  Yes syo I know its a joke but to new posters they may mistake it as real, was why my suggestion was actually legit.

wasn’t trying to screw anyone. It’s just my call. This storm will have its warm tounges too so I’m guessing where they will be

Okayyyy....I do not see your basis on this at all as models are showing pretty solid snows everywhere (as of now, knock on wood), but heck you were right more so than others last time so, let it fly and good luck!  But I am those in blue I am pretty sure agree that we hope your dead wrong.

Based upon my gut and more importantly, this year's experience, I would increase the red to 18-14, increase the green to 12 plus and downgrade the blue to just fog. Just cold damp black ice fog.

[jmanley32]

gfs not good look forcoast or about 25 miles inland everywhere and even fyrther for 6+

[Carter bk]

Can this storm bomb out like last or whole diffent setup?

[jmanley32]

My “first call map” for 3/7/18




Green is 4-8” snow
Red is 8-12” locally 14”+ on LI
Blue is <1” mixed with rain

This should be in banter as its syo's passive agressive way of scrrewing me, scroc and a few in NJ, it can't be for real.  And the crayon work, man my 4 year old does better.  Yes syo I know its a joke but to new posters they may mistake it as real, was why my suggestion was actually legit.

wasn’t trying to screw anyone. It’s just my call. This storm will have its warm tounges too so I’m guessing where they will be

Okayyyy....I do not see your basis on this at all as models are showing pretty solid snows everywhere (as of now, knock on wood), but heck you were right more so than others last time so, let it fly and good luck!  But I am those in blue I am pretty sure agree that we hope your dead wrong.

Based upon my gut and more importantly, this year's experience, I would increase the red to 18-14, increase the green to 12 plus and downgrade the blue to just fog.  Just cold damp black ice fog.  

LMAO, 18-14 and ice fog.

[jmanley32]

Can this storm bomb out like last or whole diffent setup?

Not go be a crazy huge storm like this past one, its small and only gets to about 990mb, this run of GFS 987 but as its moving NE.

[WeatherBob]

We will see how later runs look, I am waiting for Sunday nights run on all models, again this is a close call on low level temps.

[jmanley32]

Serve me some cmc please!! Euro was too far east hammers you know where. Not concerned 4 days out. But 00z cmc was the best run 12 plus smack over NYC and surrounding areas.

[weatherwatchermom]

Serve me some cmc please!! Euro was too far east hammers you know where. Not concerned 4 days out. But 00z cmc was the best run 12 plus smack over NYC and surrounding areas.

Can you post maps please

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