March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential

12z RGEM

SNOW MAP



RAIN MAP

I can see this playing out like the NAM has it, unfortunately for the coast. I like a further westward track with this system. My analysis is complete.

12z GFS looked like a tucked in low at the moment

coastal low off shore North & West less snow coast more take a penny and flip heads or tails

THE CMC JUST BLEW THE COAST UPPPPPPPPPPP WELCOME TO PARTY

GFS has been pretty consistent tucking this thing in tight to the coast. As I said on here before I went to bed last night after the 0z GFS run came in, it was a little too close to the coast for my liking. So for me the NAM may not just be a model blip but it could show some consensus building toward a track closer to the coast. Of course that's not consistent at all with the Euro so who knows. But I do not discount that this could be a north and west snow event with mixing issues east of the NJ Turnpike. I can already here the pitter patter of sleet and rain hitting my window as far west as Somerville Wednesday during the day. lol. That said, I still believe everyone ends as snow with this (except maybe the far south jersey coast) regardless of mixing issues earlier in the storm.

rb924119 wrote:I can see this playing out like the NAM has it, unfortunately for the coast. I like a further westward track with this system. My analysis is complete.

"Warning levels snows north of I-78, Warning levels snows north of I-78!!" It's still ringing in my ears, RB! I'm betting against you this time! Haha

SoulSingMG wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I can see this playing out like the NAM has it, unfortunately for the coast. I like a further westward track with this system. My analysis is complete.

"Warning levels snows north of I-78, Warning levels snows north of I-78!!" It's still ringing in my ears, RB! I'm betting against you this time! Haha

Why? lmao I presume you didn't get much? lol

NAM has me hammered and not even a WWA...

Local mets in nyc and accuweather site has 6 to9 for city with locally higher amounts thats alot of confidenece at this point even winter storm watch. Im in brooklyn ny 11207

While the CMC is nice to look at, I think it is still correcting west to fall in line with the GFS/NAM camp. H5 clearly looks to have made big strides towards that idea.

mikeypizano wrote:NAM has me hammered and not even a WWA...

maybe after latest trends

rb924119 wrote:While the CMC is nice to look at, I think it is still correcting west to fall in line with the GFS/NAM camp. H5 clearly looks to have made big strides towards that idea.

But but but we were promise do the first half of March would produce with the favorable NAO after the February torch.

hurrysundown23 wrote: coastal low off shore North & West less snow coast more take a penny and flip heads or tails

The best lift and snow bands look to be just on the fringes of the tightest circulation of the LP.

But holy shitskies rgem!!!!!!!!!!! If not posted

How is this looking for South Jersey? What do we need for this to be a great event for our whole region?

syosnow94 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:While the CMC is nice to look at, I think it is still correcting west to fall in line with the GFS/NAM camp. H5 clearly looks to have made big strides towards that idea.

But but but we were promise do the first half of March would produce with the favorable NAO after the February torch.

March is producing. Powerful storm last week, another one Wednesday and probably a big one early next week. Just because it is not falling in the form of snow does not mean the pattern did not produce. These are strong coastal systems. Cold air in March is not the easiest to come by for the coastal plain.

Frank_Wx wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:While the CMC is nice to look at, I think it is still correcting west to fall in line with the GFS/NAM camp. H5 clearly looks to have made big strides towards that idea.

But but but we were promise do the first half of March would produce with the favorable NAO after the February torch.

March is producing. Powerful storm last week, another one Wednesday and probably a big one early next week. Just because it is not falling in the form of snow does not mean the pattern did not produce. These are strong coastal systems. Cold air in March is not the easiest to come by for the coastal plain.

I say bring on spring already! March snow just sucks...

Frank_Wx wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:While the CMC is nice to look at, I think it is still correcting west to fall in line with the GFS/NAM camp. H5 clearly looks to have made big strides towards that idea.

But but but we were promise do the first half of March would produce with the favorable NAO after the February torch.

March is producing. Powerful storm last week, another one Wednesday and probably a big one early next week. Just because it is not falling in the form of snow does not mean the pattern did not produce. These are strong coastal systems. Cold air in March is not the easiest to come by for the coastal plain.

I was being sarcastic boss

Yours truly,Guy

rb924119 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I can see this playing out like the NAM has it, unfortunately for the coast. I like a further westward track with this system. My analysis is complete.

"Warning levels snows north of I-78, Warning levels snows north of I-78!!" It's still ringing in my ears, RB! I'm betting against you this time! Haha

Why? lmao I presume you didn't get much? lol

SOLID presumption, lol. Not even an inch from White Plains to Port Chester in Westchester County. It's okay tho, the wind show made up for it. ;-)

SoulSingMG wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I can see this playing out like the NAM has it, unfortunately for the coast. I like a further westward track with this system. My analysis is complete.

"Warning levels snows north of I-78, Warning levels snows north of I-78!!" It's still ringing in my ears, RB! I'm betting against you this time! Haha

Why? lmao I presume you didn't get much? lol

SOLID presumption, lol. Not even an inch from White Plains to Port Chester in Westchester County. It's okay tho, the wind show made up for it. ;-)

The accumulations were definitely sporadic in places, as was the precip type at times, but in the general sense, I think the ideas I presented at least had merit. It certainly snowed to the coast, unlike what many thought and a lot of modeling showed, with many areas and people receiving accumulations in broad alignment with what was presented. I'm not going to say I verified, or didn't, as I didn't really provide a physical forecast such as a map to establish definitive metrics; just an outline. But I do think my ideas did perform fairly well, or were at least shown to not be unfounded, in a broad sense. I'm sorry you didn't get anything, though :'(

Of course, if the 12Z CMC were to somehow verify, that would be something else. Even with March daylight and marginal temperatures, those high snowfall rates would override them. Of course, I still expect that to shift NW,

She's juicy, guys and gals. Lots of QPF to work with and I gotta say, it's gonna be heavy wet snow so keep in mind even 6 inches of it will certainly bring down tree limbs and trees aleady weakened by last week's nor'easter.

SoulSingMG wrote:She's juicy, guys and gals. Lots of QPF to work with and I gotta say, it's gonna be heavy wet snow so keep in mind even 6 inches of it will certainly bring down tree limbs and trees aleady weakened by last week's nor'easter.

Not to sound like Jman but... Winds?

rb924119 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I can see this playing out like the NAM has it, unfortunately for the coast. I like a further westward track with this system. My analysis is complete.

"Warning levels snows north of I-78, Warning levels snows north of I-78!!" It's still ringing in my ears, RB! I'm betting against you this time! Haha

Why? lmao I presume you didn't get much? lol

SOLID presumption, lol. Not even an inch from White Plains to Port Chester in Westchester County. It's okay tho, the wind show made up for it. ;-)

The accumulations were definitely sporadic in places, as was the precip type at times, but in the general sense, I think the ideas I presented at least had merit. It certainly snowed to the coast, unlike what many thought and a lot of modeling showed, with many areas and people receiving accumulations in broad alignment with what was presented. I'm not going to say I verified, or didn't, as I didn't really provide a physical forecast such as a map to establish definitive metrics; just an outline. But I do think my ideas did perform fairly well, or were at least shown to not be unfounded, in a broad sense. I'm sorry you didn't get anything, though :'(

No apologies necessary; you are one of the best forecasters on here and I always appreciate your educated input! :-D