Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Sanchize06 wrote:NAM is slightly north, but weaker and more disorganized

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:NAM is slightly north, but weaker and more disorganized

Maybe tonights other 0Z's trend positive for us, if not let's see where we stand tomorrow night. I think we should have a good feel by then whether this will trend in out favor. We still have time on our side.

Sanchize06 wrote:Part 2 seems much stronger though

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Yep, this would work.

jmanley32 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Yep, this would work.

Only model showing it, since when do we hold the cmc and watch for trends towards it lol

jmanley32 wrote:Well nws took down all hwo that have been up for days. That says a lot.

sroc4 wrote:Good Morning.  Regarding wave 1 it looks like we are forming a consensus on where and what at H5.  


Later today into tonight the energy that is wave one will be traversing the Rockies on an ENE trajectory.  



Once on the eastern side of the continental divide it spins up into a potent bundle of energy that actually closes off 500mb by about 10-12z Monday.  Recall prev conversations about whether this energy remaining a "bowling ball of energy" that conts east or does it weaken as it conts east.




As the energy conts ENE you can see below the main vorticity for the first wave passes over Kentucky by approx. 06z Tuesday, but notice we are no longer closed off.  You can see NAM GFS and Euro agree on placement and intensity around this time.   The problem is as it cont on an ENE trajectory it begins to run into very potent confluence stubbornly placed over the NE.  This weakens our vort max, and begin to shear it out and steer deflect it due E from there.  






There is only so much latitude that this system can gain due to the confluence in the NE and a fairly muted PNA ridge as it approaches the coast.  BUT the PNA is trying to gain amplitude as wave 2 conts east.  IF we cont to see favorable trends in the PNA region from Tuesday into Wed, then hopefully wee see the energy consolidate at its base.  If it does a more amplified soln here would raise heights along the coast, tilt the trough neg sooner and we all would still have a chance at Wave 2, esp if the spacing between wave 1 and 2 is adequate......, but there isn't a ton of time left.  



Regarding wave 1 While I suppose we arent quite at no chance for areas north, I think only the area within the circle has the best chance to see accumulation from wav 1.  The confluence simply looks too strong for the precip to make it much further N than this.  That said I said we likely wont see the true soln until at least Monday so we'll see what happens.  We must see the energy stay strong longer, shift N a little as we go through today and tomorrow, and see the confluence shift N a little.