Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Sroc. Now I get the picture what we are up against. You make it very understandable even the maps I could follow. Thanks as always

Sroc, do we get a snow or rain storm or can it be a complete miss ?

Wouldn't it be very difficult for wave 2 to come far North bc of wave 1 pulling the baroclonic zone farther south? What we really wanted was one consolidated low

Upton HWO.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is uncertain, as a
series of low pressure systems passing to the south bring chances of
snow Tuesday into Wednesday. A slight northward trend in the expected
track of either of these lows could lead to significant snowfall,
especially for the New York City metropolitan area and Long Island.

Thanks Snow

skinsfan1177 wrote:Wouldn't it be very difficult for wave 2 to come far North bc of wave 1 pulling the baroclonic zone farther south? What we really wanted was one consolidated low

Skins the one consolidated low soln hasn't really been on the table for the past few days.  It has become clear that there will be this initial wave followed by a second one.  You are correct in sayin that wave one could bring the baroclinic zone too far south IF the wave spacing between the two is too close and or if its too stron.  Wave one approaches the coast in an ENE direction due to a muted PNA ridge, and the strong confluence on a NW to SE wind flow.  However, if wave one gets out of the way, as you can see the NAM hinting that the area of confluences shifts north and is now more W to E or even slight WSW to ENE.  This lifting of the confluence is likely in direct response to the PNA ridge really amplifying in the west.  Also as a result of the PNA amplification it looks like it is trying to consolidate the energy at the base of the mean trough.  As it rounds the base you can see there is now room for heights to raise along the coast tilting the trough axis towards negative which brings the surface low on a NE trajectory.  IF we can get more of this energy to consolidate in successive runs we likely see the trough tilt more neg and see the Low come right up the coast as long as it does so before the trough axis is too far east.   How this all happens will be dictated by:

1) Wave spacing between wave 1 and 2.  If the first wave is too close, OR too strong it will not allow for height rises in front of wave 2.  So if we want wave 2 to work out, a sheared out wave 1 is actually better IMO.  That still doesn't mean the weaker more strung out initial wave cant or wont trend N a little more and we still get snow from it.

2) We need to see the PNA ridge trend more and more amplified and the confluence zone shift north to create room for the height rises along the coast if

3) we can consolidate all the energy at the base of the mean trough, see it round the base and tilt the trough neg in time before the trough axis gets to far east.

sroc4 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Wouldn't it be very difficult for wave 2 to come far North bc of wave 1 pulling the baroclonic zone farther south? What we really wanted was one consolidated low

Skins the one consolidated low soln hasn't really been on the table for the past few days.  It has become clear that there will be this initial wave followed by a second one.  You are correct in sayin that wave one could bring the baroclinic zone too far south IF the wave spacing between the two is too close and or if its too stron.  Wave one approaches the coast in an ENE direction due to a muted PNA ridge, and the strong confluence on a NW to SE wind flow.  However, if wave one gets out of the way, as you can see the NAM hinting that the area of confluences shifts north and is now more W to E or even slight WSW to ENE.  This lifting of the confluence is likely in direct response to the PNA ridge really amplifying in the west.  Also as a result of the PNA amplification it looks like it is trying to consolidate the energy at the base of the mean trough.  As it rounds the base you can see there is now room for heights to raise along the coast tilting the trough axis towards negative which brings the surface low on a NE trajectory.  IF we can get more of this energy to consolidate in successive runs we likely see the trough tilt more neg and see the Low come right up the coast as long as it does so before the trough axis is too far east.   How this all happens will be dictated by:

1) Wave spacing between wave 1 and 2.  If the first wave is too close, OR too strong it will not allow for height rises in front of wave 2.  So if we want wave 2 to work out, a sheared out wave 1 is actually better IMO.  That still doesn't mean the weaker more strung out initial wave cant or wont trend N a little more and we still get snow from it.

2) We need to see the PNA ridge trend more and more amplified and the confluence zone shift north to create room for the height rises along the coast if

3) we can consolidate all the energy at the base of the mean trough, see it round the base and tilt the trough neg in time before the trough axis gets to far east.

Great explanation sroc. Maybe we can still get wave 1 and 2 to come tgether

RGEM

That second low really bombs out and is a near miss, maybe theres some way we can get it in closer? GFS was actually a tick west and gets precip into cape now but keeps everything south of LI, CMC is back south last night was a tease most likely.

Well its certainly dead and wheres Frank, I am curious if index is go be lowered and his analysis of situation. He italian not Irish lol

skinsfan1177 wrote:RGEM

Guessing that would be a huge hit.

rb924119 wrote:Another option is to slow our lead wave. Combine the additional PNA spike and slow down of the lead wave and we measure in yardsticks. SO SO SO SO SO SO CLOSE!!!!

Yup. Euro seems to shred out the initial wave early never really deleoping a distinct surface low. Instead PNA spike follows and second wave develops primary that comes really freaking close.

Btw. Why does everyone always worry about where Frank is. He has been on and off all season. He’s a busy man.

00z GEFS vs 12z

Rb looks like as of now south of us, but these things can always change.