Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Mar 17, 2018 12:21 am

NAM looked amazing. But GFS did not. Look at thus trend over the PNA region. Ridge going flatter and flatter each consecutive run.

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 4 Gfs_z500a_namer_fh84_trend.gif.5c4b93db2f7eabb92ab287be4c0377c5

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 4 Gfs_z500a_namer_fh84_trend.gif.5c4b93db2f7eabb92ab287be4c0377c5

by Guest Sat Mar 17, 2018 1:01 am

GFS coming around to join EURO. Suppression

by **SNOW MAN** Sat Mar 17, 2018 5:44 am

Frank_Wx wrote:NAM looked amazing. But GFS did not. Look at thus trend over the PNA region. Ridge going flatter and flatter each consecutive run.

Do we still have a chance of this storm still coming are way ? I noticed the extended forecast for my area has partly cloudy for Tues and Wed already.

by **docstox12** Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:04 am

Wow, NWS backed off big time, no snow now Mon night or Tuesday.They just mention a 'period" of snow Tuesday night 1 to 3 AM, and a littl more Wed morning! Looks like those models with the "fizzle" solution are taking priority ATM.Huge shift from yesterday's disco on NWS.Looks like a 2 to 3 inch situation to me up here.

by richb521 Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:19 am

Windshield wiper mode in full effect as Bernie Rayno would say!

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:20 am

SIGH. Stop (clap) living (clap) and (clap) dying (clap) by (clap) models (clap) each (clap) run!!!! Models will not have a handle on this evolution until Sunday PM. Please! Relax!

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:37 am

The global models have been struggling mightily this winter... I suspect LaNina may be the cause. As I've been saying all winter, the hi-res models are the way to go and will be in range tomorrow. Storms have trended north/west inside 48 hours and until I'm proven otherwise, this event will be no different.

by **mikeypizano** Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:51 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:The global models have been struggling mightily this winter... I suspect LaNina may be the cause. As I've been saying all winter, the hi-res models are the way to go and will be in range tomorrow. Storms have trended north/west inside 48 hours and until I'm proven otherwise, this event will be no different.

Sadly they have also trended west west west then EAST AT THE LAST MINUTE as well...

by **Quietace** Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:54 am

SoulSingMG wrote:SIGH. Stop (clap) living (clap) and (clap) dying (clap) by (clap) models (clap) each (clap) run!!!! Models will not have a handle on this evolution until Sunday PM. Please! Relax!

This paper from Dr. Lance Bosart should be updated for today to show people still have not learned any lessons...
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434%282003%2918%3C520%3AWTWAAF%3E2.0.CO%3B2

by **WeatherBob** Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:03 am

Ryan - gotta love ya for your scientific input. You hit me right in the heart with it. Keep up the good work!

by **sroc4** Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:05 am

SoulSingMG wrote:SIGH. Stop (clap) living (clap) and (clap) dying (clap) by (clap) models (clap) each (clap) run!!!! Models will not have a handle on this evolution until Sunday PM. Please! Relax!

Thank You Soul for saying this. Folks...listen. Major face palm action going on right now. The last storm was a mere 4-5 days ago. Have you forgotten what happened last time in such a short time ago??? The same people do the same thing, write off the system when the models are doing what they are doing, then in 2 days from now when the models start to catch on to what is ACTUALLY going to happen the back peddling occurs. Most TV Mets live and die with one model. What they say now is not Gospel. The NWS is the biggest offender to putting out the forecasts based on the model output so its no surprise as to what they are currently saying. Their forecast will change 17 times between now and Tuesday. Count on it.

Temper expectations, esp along the coast, and sit back and let it playout. DO NOT post..."its over for the coast" crap in this thread, because its not over for the coast. We have ALL of Sat, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday before wave 1 is upon us. That means we still have 3.5-4 days of model mayhem. Again think long and hard back to 4-5days ago and recall what the models were doing 3-4 days out vs what ended up being reality when we got inside of 12-24hrs and even now cast. Think about it.................. scratch

.................Now please sit back and read below.

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 4 Hr_72_10

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 4 Hr_90_10

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 4 Hr90_g10

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 4 Hr_10811

ANDDDD The NAM(granted its not quite in its ideal range) is further N with Wave 1 energy by 00z Tues. By 18z Tuesday it has a better PNA ridge; therefore, confluence is further N and so is the surface low

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 4 Namcon14

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 4 Namcon14

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 4 Nam_hr12

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 4 Namcon13

Patience grasshoppers...let it play out. We have until Monday 12z.....at least.

by **sroc4** Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:07 am

Quietace wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:SIGH. Stop (clap) living (clap) and (clap) dying (clap) by (clap) models (clap) each (clap) run!!!! Models will not have a handle on this evolution until Sunday PM. Please! Relax!
This paper from Dr. Lance Bosart should be updated for today to show people still have not learned any lessons...
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434%282003%2918%3C520%3AWTWAAF%3E2.0.CO%3B2

S Roc's reaction to you both.......

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 4 Giphy

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:09 am

Thank you Sroc...just checking in....and always great explanation for us to understand...

by **Grselig** Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:16 am

SoulSingMG wrote:SIGH. Stop (clap) living (clap) and (clap) dying (clap) by (clap) models (clap) each (clap) run!!!! Models will not have a handle on this evolution until Sunday PM. Please! Relax!

I think Crankypants said the same thing! We may win or lose but the game is still being played. Thanks SROC for your usual sanity as well.

by Guest Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:31 am

Great job Ryan.

Scott I don’t understand the reason for your post chastising people for model hugging or saying the threat is over yadda yadda yadda. I just went back and read the last two pages and saw hardly any. Maybe two guys MAYBE but even their posts weren’t much of what you complained about. Did I miss something?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:39 am

Just saw Scott already posted the 6Z 12km NAM above

by **sroc4** Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:47 am

syosnow94 wrote:Great job Ryan.

Scott I don’t understand the reason for your post chastising people for model hugging or saying the threat is over yadda yadda yadda. I just went back and read the last two pages and saw hardly any. Maybe two guys MAYBE but even their posts weren’t much of what you complained about. Did I miss something?

Check PM

by **Snow88** Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:56 am

GFS has trough after trough in the east with another possible storm at the end of this month.

by **Snow88** Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:59 am

9z SREF should look good for our area since the ARW's and NMB's are amped.

by **docstox12** Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:13 am

Oooops, sorry guys if my 7:04 AM post upset anybody.I was only the messenger reporting the NWS disco this morning.Didn't want to cast negativity here.I want an area wide snowtsorm like everybody else.

by Guest Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:19 am

sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Great job Ryan.

Scott I don’t understand the reason for your post chastising people for model hugging or saying the threat is over yadda yadda yadda. I just went back and read the last two pages and saw hardly any. Maybe two guys MAYBE but even their posts weren’t much of what you complained about. Did I miss something?

Check PM

Got it. Now it makes sense

by Guest Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:20 am

docstox12 wrote:Oooops, sorry guys if my 7:04 AM post upset anybody.I was only the messenger reporting the NWS disco this morning.Didn't want to cast negativity here.I want an area wide snowtsorm like everybody else.

Doc you’re post was fine

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:26 am

syosnow94 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Oooops, sorry guys if my 7:04 AM post upset anybody.I was only the messenger reporting the NWS disco this morning.Didn't want to cast negativity here.I want an area wide snowtsorm like everybody else.
Doc you’re post was fine

Doc is a trouble maker, always has been. He lies back in the weeds waiting for moments like this to pounce.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:33 am

Arws are a big hit for snj and Philly area. Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 4 5aad1310

by **docstox12** Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:33 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Oooops, sorry guys if my 7:04 AM post upset anybody.I was only the messenger reporting the NWS disco this morning.Didn't want to cast negativity here.I want an area wide snowtsorm like everybody else.
Doc you’re post was fine

Doc is a trouble maker, always has been. He lies back in the weeds waiting for moments like this to pounce.

LOL, throw gasoline on the fire why don't ya!!!!!

by **docstox12** Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:33 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Oooops, sorry guys if my 7:04 AM post upset anybody.I was only the messenger reporting the NWS disco this morning.Didn't want to cast negativity here.I want an area wide snowtsorm like everybody else.
Doc you’re post was fine

Doc is a trouble maker, always has been. He lies back in the weeds waiting for moments like this to pounce.

LOL, throw gasoline on the fire why don't ya!!!!!

I'm banishing myself to weather banter and OTI,LOL.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:34 am

The trends have not been great but there is still time for them to revert. The PNA ridge has been deamplifying due to a large upper level low off the coast of California sending some upper energy crashing into the west coast. The other negative trend is the initial 500mb closed low trending weaker on guidance because the confluence over NE is too strong. The combination of the two could potentially kill this threat entirely. On the other hand, if trends reverse, it could lead to a Godzilla event for many. It's and all or nothing type setup

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