Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

The trends have not been great but there is still time for them to revert. The PNA ridge has been deamplifying due to a large upper level low off the coast of California sending some upper energy crashing into the west coast. The other negative trend is the initial 500mb closed low trending weaker on guidance because the confluence over NE is too strong. The combination of the two could potentially kill this threat entirely. On the other hand, if trends reverse, it could lead to a Godzilla event for many. It's and all or nothing type setup

skinsfan1177 wrote:Arws are a big hit for snj and Philly area.

Good to see but of course they will change a dozen times between now and Wednesday for better or worse.

This is the graphic I made in my first post. In my latest post above I am referring to numbers 4 and 3

Srefs showing southern solution the Man may foolow

The key to me is the PNA ridge. Even with a weakening closed H5 vort due to confluence to the north we could still see a storm come north if we had phasing / consolidation. That damn ULL off the WC needs to separate itself from the coast more. With a -EPO building, one would think that's possible.

I actually wouldn’t mind for the models to keep showing this southern solution until tomorrow 0z suite. Two reasons why

First we have the fact that the models have corrected nw inside of 48 hours.

Second if you look st the models closely the energy crashing into the west coast thus de amplifying our western ridge seems like it now may be delayed a little. Every little bit helps because it gives our threat more time to come north.
I’m still optimistic

Me too, guy.

Here we go with the guy again.

FWIW which is probably not much TWC saying the threat is two separate week wages that bring snow showers only to the coast and southern Jersey. That’s it

syosnow94 wrote:FWIW which is probably not much TWC saying the threat is two separate week wages that bring snow showers only to the coast and southern Jersey. That’s it

Hey Guy, save TWC posts for banter please.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:FWIW which is probably not much TWC saying the threat is two separate week wages that bring snow showers only to the coast and southern Jersey. That’s it

Hey Guy, save TWC posts for banter please.

Virtual finger

syosnow94 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:FWIW which is probably not much TWC saying the threat is two separate week wages that bring snow showers only to the coast and southern Jersey. That’s it

Hey Guy, save TWC posts for banter please.

Virtual finger

You should have that spot on your knuckle looked at, I have a good virtual dermatologist I could refer you to.

docstox12 wrote:Here's my view on the upcoming storm REGARDLESS of NWS rhetoric!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xos2MnVxe-c

Classic footage Doc, as always.

docstox12 wrote:Here's my view on the upcoming storm REGARDLESS of NWS rhetoric!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xos2MnVxe-c

12z NAM

Frank_Wx wrote:12z NAM

That’s what you get CP. and a Frank maybe if you stopped calling me Guy the NAM a would be kinder to you as well

Here we go. GFS and Canadian are north of previous run. Almost a 100 mile shift north on Canadian and 75 miles on the GFS. Trend all winter has been a N-NW trend days leading up to the storm. I expect that should continue UNLESS the PNA ridge or confluence over NE kills us.

RGEM snow qpf

SE PA to CNJ to NNJ (more NE NJ) to NYC to LI is bullseye at this time

I can't win it literally cuts off at the Yonkers Bronx border lol

I’m here. rb. Just trying to not get too fired up

Lol rb. It's way close for comfort need it further north at least a bit. Nam on closer inspection is 8 to 12 for me if it sticks. Sign me up.