January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

This will probably start as snow for an hour or two and and then flip for most. It may taint all the way up to Bangor Maine. I am starting to feel even places like Scranton and State College PA may bust badly on this. Thought they were a lock for a foot yesterday. Damn...

After taking a brief look at H5 to see where I went wrong, of all the pieces to completely fall apart or potentially go wrong, I did not think it would be the EPO. That was the dagger in my forecast. And without being able to do any follow-up analysis during the week, I was forced to just look quickly at things under the (false) pretense of my initial and long-standing ideas. Had we kept the EPO in a negative state, the outcome would be very much different, especially for northern and western folk. The other components of my initial thoughts were largely on track, however.

All of that said, I’m done with this winter. I’m sick and tired of having these threat periods look good up until three or four days out and then somehow modeling drastically shifts its overall presentation of the pattern. I don’t even care if we do get this projected pattern at this point, or if we get a good storm or two. I’m done for now. For my own sanity I just need to walk away for a while. I’m incredibly frustrated with both the continued progression of this seemingly uncooperative and erratic winter, and also with myself for not being able to stay on top of these “threats” and update my thinking with the fluidity they need to be. I’m truly sorry for leading you astray this weekend, but at least I know where I went wrong.

rb924119 wrote:After taking a brief look at H5 to see where I went wrong, of all the pieces to completely fall apart or potentially go wrong, I did not think it would be the EPO. That was the dagger in my forecast. And without being able to do any follow-up analysis during the week, I was forced to just look quickly at things under the (false) pretense of my initial and long-standing  ideas. Had we kept the EPO in a negative state, the outcome would be very much different, especially for northern and western folk. The other components of my initial thoughts were largely on track, however.

All of that said, I’m done with this winter. I’m sick and tired of having these threat periods look good up until three or four days out and then somehow modeling drastically shifts its overall presentation of the pattern. I don’t even care if we do get this projected pattern at this point, or if we get a good storm or two. I’m done for now. For my own sanity I just need to walk away for a while. I’m incredibly frustrated with both the continued progression of this seemingly uncooperative and erratic winter, and also with myself for not being able to stay on top of these “threats” and update my thinking with the fluidity they need to be. I’m truly sorry for leading you astray this weekend, but at least I know where I went wrong.

Nothing to hang your head on. I look forward to analysis on all events good or bad. It's great that your honest on why things went wrong with your analysis and most dont do that. Hope to here more of your insight and analysis in future events.

Ray, you didn't lead us astray and I'm not saying it because I'll still do well. If someone or something comes along at the last second and throws a spanner in the works, it's not the works fault. Look at the OP runs. Every six hours they've been changing. You'd have to be a no lifer to be able to keep on top of the tiny alterations that go into a system as dynamic as meteorology and get them to us and while we all appreciate the time and effort that you, Frank, Scott and others put into this we also know that you have lives and responsibilities away from the board.

If you need to take a break for your well being, then take it knowing that nobody here blames you for anything.

rb924119 wrote:After taking a brief look at H5 to see where I went wrong, of all the pieces to completely fall apart or potentially go wrong, I did not think it would be the EPO. That was the dagger in my forecast. And without being able to do any follow-up analysis during the week, I was forced to just look quickly at things under the (false) pretense of my initial and long-standing  ideas. Had we kept the EPO in a negative state, the outcome would be very much different, especially for northern and western folk. The other components of my initial thoughts were largely on track, however.

All of that said, I’m done with this winter. I’m sick and tired of having these threat periods look good up until three or four days out and then somehow modeling drastically shifts its overall presentation of the pattern. I don’t even care if we do get this projected pattern at this point, or if we get a good storm or two. I’m done for now. For my own sanity I just need to walk away for a while. I’m incredibly frustrated with both the continued progression of this seemingly uncooperative and erratic winter, and also with myself for not being able to stay on top of these “threats” and update my thinking with the fluidity they need to be. I’m truly sorry for leading you astray this weekend, but at least I know where I went wrong.

Your original analysis was well thought out and written. Thank you. Unfortunately at some point this winter will pull you back in.

rb924119 wrote:After taking a brief look at H5 to see where I went wrong, of all the pieces to completely fall apart or potentially go wrong, I did not think it would be the EPO. That was the dagger in my forecast. And without being able to do any follow-up analysis during the week, I was forced to just look quickly at things under the (false) pretense of my initial and long-standing  ideas. Had we kept the EPO in a negative state, the outcome would be very much different, especially for northern and western folk. The other components of my initial thoughts were largely on track, however.

All of that said, I’m done with this winter. I’m sick and tired of having these threat periods look good up until three or four days out and then somehow modeling drastically shifts its overall presentation of the pattern. I don’t even care if we do get this projected pattern at this point, or if we get a good storm or two. I’m done for now. For my own sanity I just need to walk away for a while. I’m incredibly frustrated with both the continued progression of this seemingly uncooperative and erratic winter, and also with myself for not being able to stay on top of these “threats” and update my thinking with the fluidity they need to be. I’m truly sorry for leading you astray this weekend, but at least I know where I went wrong.

rb, you work very hard to try and give us your best ideas.My friend ,you are working with computer models that still have a long way to go to capture all the variables that modeling weather entails.This winter season is bringing out those deficiencies in a brutal manner, even the top mets are all confused.You are trying your best don't be hard on yourself or be discouraged.This is Mother Nature doing her thing and we just have to ride with it all.I personally want to thank you and Mugs, Frank, Doc Al and whoever else I might have missed for keeping up the good work.All it will take is one monster snowstorm this winter to turn this around, probably when it's least expected or predicted.

rb924119 wrote:After taking a brief look at H5 to see where I went wrong, of all the pieces to completely fall apart or potentially go wrong, I did not think it would be the EPO. That was the dagger in my forecast. And without being able to do any follow-up analysis during the week, I was forced to just look quickly at things under the (false) pretense of my initial and long-standing  ideas. Had we kept the EPO in a negative state, the outcome would be very much different, especially for northern and western folk. The other components of my initial thoughts were largely on track, however.

All of that said, I’m done with this winter. I’m sick and tired of having these threat periods look good up until three or four days out and then somehow modeling drastically shifts its overall presentation of the pattern. I don’t even care if we do get this projected pattern at this point, or if we get a good storm or two. I’m done for now. For my own sanity I just need to walk away for a while. I’m incredibly frustrated with both the continued progression of this seemingly uncooperative and erratic winter, and also with myself for not being able to stay on top of these “threats” and update my thinking with the fluidity they need to be. I’m truly sorry for leading you astray this weekend, but at least I know where I went wrong.

OH MY GOSH(you are about to get the Mom speech finger and all.. am I old enough to be your Mom..wait I will go check be right back....SHI_ I am...)listen you should take a break if you are frustrated with this weather, as we all are!!! and as I tell my son..you should always look at your mistakes to see where you went wrong so you do not make the same mistake twice...BUT YOU SHOULD NEVER BERATE YOURSELF....you are a knowledgeable in your field and you should never forget that. Now as I also say...go have a little sulk or temper tantrum somewhere and get back to work..and if you are really mad..you can come over and get a glass jar from my I am F'ing mad cabinet(I keep a stock of  glass jars for such an occasion) and go out and smash it(you do have to clean it up though that is my rule)...My husband and son laugh at that cabinet..and sometimes there have been times that cabinet has been emptied..LOL...I hope you have a better day and lets get back to tracking...there has to be something out there that goes our way!!

weatherwatchermom wrote:

rb924119 wrote:After taking a brief look at H5 to see where I went wrong, of all the pieces to completely fall apart or potentially go wrong, I did not think it would be the EPO. That was the dagger in my forecast. And without being able to do any follow-up analysis during the week, I was forced to just look quickly at things under the (false) pretense of my initial and long-standing  ideas. Had we kept the EPO in a negative state, the outcome would be very much different, especially for northern and western folk. The other components of my initial thoughts were largely on track, however.

All of that said, I’m done with this winter. I’m sick and tired of having these threat periods look good up until three or four days out and then somehow modeling drastically shifts its overall presentation of the pattern. I don’t even care if we do get this projected pattern at this point, or if we get a good storm or two. I’m done for now. For my own sanity I just need to walk away for a while. I’m incredibly frustrated with both the continued progression of this seemingly uncooperative and erratic winter, and also with myself for not being able to stay on top of these “threats” and update my thinking with the fluidity they need to be. I’m truly sorry for leading you astray this weekend, but at least I know where I went wrong.

OH MY GOSH(you are about to get the Mom speech finger and all.. am I old enough to be your Mom..wait I will go check be right back....SHI_ I am...)listen you should take a break if you are frustrated with this weather, as we all are!!! and as I tell my son..you should always look at your mistakes to see where you went wrong so you do not make the same mistake twice...BUT YOU SHOULD NEVER BERATE YOURSELF....you are a knowledgeable in your field and you should never forget that. Now as I also say...go have a little sulk or temper tantrum somewhere and get back to work..and if you are really mad..you can come over and get a glass jar from my I am F'ing mad cabinet(I keep a stock of  glass jars for such an occasion) and go out and smash it(you do have to clean it up though that is my rule)...My husband and son laugh at that cabinet..and sometimes there have been times that cabinet has been emptied..LOL...I hope you have a better day and lets get back to tracking...there has to be something out there that goes our way!!

LOL, your the best MOM!!!!

rb924119 wrote:After taking a brief look at H5 to see where I went wrong, of all the pieces to completely fall apart or potentially go wrong, I did not think it would be the EPO. That was the dagger in my forecast. And without being able to do any follow-up analysis during the week, I was forced to just look quickly at things under the (false) pretense of my initial and long-standing  ideas. Had we kept the EPO in a negative state, the outcome would be very much different, especially for northern and western folk. The other components of my initial thoughts were largely on track, however.

All of that said, I’m done with this winter. I’m sick and tired of having these threat periods look good up until three or four days out and then somehow modeling drastically shifts its overall presentation of the pattern. I don’t even care if we do get this projected pattern at this point, or if we get a good storm or two. I’m done for now. For my own sanity I just need to walk away for a while. I’m incredibly frustrated with both the continued progression of this seemingly uncooperative and erratic winter, and also with myself for not being able to stay on top of these “threats” and update my thinking with the fluidity they need to be. I’m truly sorry for leading you astray this weekend, but at least I know where I went wrong.

You've done fine, better than most.

I think we all need to take a break from this winter, it certainly to this point has been about as disappointing as a winter can be. And I disagree with those that say we can still have a good winter if we get one HECS. I'm sorry to me that's not winter that's an event. Winter is walking around with a snow covered landscape for most of the December through mid March period, anything less in not an A winter.

At this point we've lost all of December and January. If winter could start Feb 1 this year instead of March 2 like last year it's salvageable but even if it snowed 50 inches after Feb 1 like the 50 we got here last year after March 1 it's an improvement and I won't turn it down but you still can never make up for the two months lost. December and January have the lowest sun angles, the least amount of sunlight and for most of the period the coldest temperatures, throw in Christmas season and losing those two months is killer that you can't make up for. Just my feelings.

Hi people been following for a while haven’t posted this winter yet . Have a question if this storm is done why did I get this update 3 min ago ? Can anyone answer?  


Posted 3 minutes ago
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and
sleet accumulations of 6 to 10 inches. The highest snow totals
will be across Orange and Putnam counties. Ice accumulations
of one tenth to one quarter of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, interior southwest
Connecticut and the lower Hudson Valley in New York.

* WHEN...Later this afternoon through 6 PM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Hazardous travel is expected with roads
becoming snow and ice covered. Gusty winds, snow, and ice
accumulation may bring down tree limbs and power lines.

I moved and by the Wayne area

pretty bummed. Mt Holly took a big chunk out of snow totals. 32* now, low expectations this storm pulls through with anything expected. that 2-3" line keeps pushing up further and further

RJB8525 wrote:pretty bummed. Mt Holly took a big chunk out of snow totals. 32* now, low expectations this storm pulls through with anything expected. that 2-3" line keeps pushing up further and further

Matches my map nicely now. It is what it is...

@Ray - you put a lot of effort into your forecasts. More so than anyone I know. You are passionate and that is something no one can take away from you. I know you'll be back. Its in your blood

https://twitter.com/AccuRayno/status/1086636219008638976

Bernie Rayno from about 15 minutes ago - interesting - he is throwing out the NAM totally - going by observations and his map - need to see

First off a big thank you to everyone here. I follow this blog all year but especially in the winter. Your insights and discussions are always interesting and I learn something as I read them.

I normally don’t post asking about the current plan but I am curious about the take on conditions tonight in Hackettstown. It seems the worst of the icing is going to miss us now but wanted to see what you think since I am away.

If we stay away we are planning to be back home around lunchtime tomorrow before the freeze sets in. Is that a good pan or should we go now?

Sorry to be a pain and keep up the great work

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
948 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

CTZ009>012-NJZ006-104-106>108-NYZ071-192230-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0002.190119T2100Z-190120T1500Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-
948 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of
an inch expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty
winds, snow, and ice accumulation may bring down tree limbs
and power lines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

Rb, dont be mad at yourself or so hard - you are a great pro met and we are lucky to have you on this board. Your in depth knowledge is amazing and looking forward to more of the same in the future. Hang in there kid!!

rb924119 wrote:After taking a brief look at H5 to see where I went wrong, of all the pieces to completely fall apart or potentially go wrong, I did not think it would be the EPO. That was the dagger in my forecast. And without being able to do any follow-up analysis during the week, I was forced to just look quickly at things under the (false) pretense of my initial and long-standing  ideas. Had we kept the EPO in a negative state, the outcome would be very much different, especially for northern and western folk. The other components of my initial thoughts were largely on track, however.

All of that said, I’m done with this winter. I’m sick and tired of having these threat periods look good up until three or four days out and then somehow modeling drastically shifts its overall presentation of the pattern. I don’t even care if we do get this projected pattern at this point, or if we get a good storm or two. I’m done for now. For my own sanity I just need to walk away for a while. I’m incredibly frustrated with both the continued progression of this seemingly uncooperative and erratic winter, and also with myself for not being able to stay on top of these “threats” and update my thinking with the fluidity they need to be. I’m truly sorry for leading you astray this weekend, but at least I know where I went wrong.

Dude, it happens, nothing to get too stressed about. Just brush it off like the pro mets on tv do lol. They do a good job on being neutral and if there is nothing that goes the way they expected in terms of snow, they report that and move on.

Rb as much we love snow and we alll want a huge snow storm .I am pissed off right now but I know we are going to see a snow storm soon don't take this out on yourself and I just want to say thank you for all your hard work. Also I want to say thank you to Frank,amugs ,mom and everyone else on this board thank you for making this a number one weather board you guys are the best hopefully soon we can have a get together really soon I look forward to meeting you guys

amugs wrote:https://twitter.com/AccuRayno/status/1086636219008638976

Bernie Rayno from about 15 minutes ago - interesting - he is throwing out the NAM totally - going by observations and his map - need to see

I always respect and like watching Bernie's videos. Many times however he gets stuck on his calls and disregards short range models. The next day is usually like perhaps i was a bit too stubborn on that area.

This looks just about right to me.

RB. As you even wrote, it was a very tough call. You back everything you say with solid proof and add a great deal of value to the board. You are a pro and are always great to read. We live and learn and come back for more. But yeah, this winter is so frustrating. Thanks for all your work.

Art

I got the same thing this morning and I'm in West Orange. Can't imagine I get anywhere near 6 inches. More like 2-3 and then some ice and rain. This storm is confusing and frustrating but I hope everyone stays safe and warm.

Artechmetals wrote:Hi people been following for a while haven’t posted this winter yet . Have a question if this storm is done why did I get this update 3 min ago ? Can anyone answer?  


Posted 3 minutes ago
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and
sleet accumulations of 6 to 10 inches. The highest snow totals
will be across Orange and Putnam counties. Ice accumulations
of one tenth to one quarter of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, interior southwest
Connecticut and the lower Hudson Valley in New York.

* WHEN...Later this afternoon through 6 PM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Hazardous travel is expected with roads
becoming snow and ice covered. Gusty winds, snow, and ice
accumulation may bring down tree limbs and power lines.

still looking good here in Binghamton

aiannone wrote:still looking good here in Binghamton

Not even sure why you ever hesitated going. This was always an inland storm, LI not the place to be, apparently neither is anywhere within 50 mile radius of NYC.

I wouldn't give up in on northwest suburbs from getting a good thump of snow the Euro came in with 2 in in Manhattan 3 to 4 and Southern Westchester and north of Route 80 in northeastern New Jersey and 6 to 10 in from Rockland County Orange County in northwest New Jersey

There's definitely cold air filtering into the area. Dew points have dropped by 6 degrees or so within last 5 hours to around 22 with air temperatures in low/mid 30's. It will make for decent over running initially.