2019 TROPICAL SEASON

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:Remember the GEFs are run on the old GFS platform as well.
Rayno says dont use ENS for hcane forecasts.

I know. But it’s still a tool. And I respectfully disagree for several reasons, but he is entitled to his opinions also haha

Rb what is your thinking of where this is going?

Forget the models he is such a beast they can't handle this sucker.
Spaghetti maps.of.hcane models are all.over the place.
If I ma from WPB to OBX I hunker down. Tjis thing is creating it's own environment. Very rare aitch here. Not waking at all.
914 my pressure still
Winds- devastation

Just read all of south Carolina coast under evacuation order..and several in Georgia...7 in Florida...what a nightmare

Newsday has just reported Dorian is moving North. Like who is watching the info over there?

I know this is banter but everyone is looking here. My mother in law is in Palm coast around Daytona area right near where hwrf makes landfall. I need your prayers she had a heart attack last night and somehow survived it and is in the hospital now heading to cathlab. She nearly died in 2015 was in the hospital for 2 months and had several massive heart attacks. She swore she would not smoke again after that. It did not take long for her to start again despite her seeing the picture we took of her on 1000 wires on life support but I guess that doesn't phase her. I do not get it. They moved away from yonkers 2 years ago and my wife and sister in law feel helpless and understandably so. So keep her in your thoughts and let's at least have this hurricane not destroy their new home.

weatherwatchermom wrote:Just read all of south Carolina coast under evacuation order..and several in Georgia...7 in Florida...what a nightmare

already? And so many places in Florida are not so odd .

jmanley32 wrote:I know this is banter but everyone is looking here. My mother in law is in Palm coast around Daytona area right near where hwrf makes landfall. I need your prayers she had a heart attack last night and somehow survived it and is in the hospital now heading to cathlab. She nearly died in 2015 was in the hospital for 2 months and had several massive heart attacks. She swore she would not smoke again after that. It did not take long for her to start again despite her seeing the picture we took of her on 1000 wires on life support but I guess that doesn't phase her. I do not get it. They moved away from yonkers 2 years ago and my wife and sister in law feel helpless and understandably so. So keep her in your thoughts and let's at least have this hurricane not destroy their new home.

Prayers for your family. That’s not banter, but real love and concern. Must be a very anxious time.

I saw Levi Cowan video and find it fascinating that due to steering currents, a weaker storm may cause it to hit Florida, while a more powerful storm may be pushed out north faster.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:Remember the GEFs are run on the old GFS platform as well.
Rayno says dont use ENS for hcane forecasts.

I know. But it’s still a tool. And I respectfully disagree for several reasons, but he is entitled to his opinions also haha

Rb what is your thinking of where this is going?

I posted a more detailed discussion earlier on in the thread, and I have not changed my thinking at all since that original post. I think this does not make a direct landfall in the U.S., but tracks within a 100-mile swath of the Southeastern U.S. coastline, which is inclusive of the coastline itself. For a very quick, informal idea, I drew the following image on my phone so I could show my family real quick:

Red lines denote the approximate cone of uncertainty, and the black line is my approximate (highly approximate, considering it was drawn with my finger on my phone screen aha):

amugs wrote:Forget the models he is such a beast they can't handle this sucker.
Spaghetti maps.of.hcane models are all.over the place.
If I ma from WPB to OBX I hunker down. Tjis thing is creating it's own environment. Very rare aitch here. Not waking at all.
914 my pressure still
Winds- devastation

Mugs, the hurricane model ensembles are pretty well clustered, with limited spread. Granted, it’s possible that they are clustered around the wrong solution, but we won’t know that for another day lol I agree with you on all other points, though, buddy

jmanley32 wrote:I know this is banter but everyone is looking here. My mother in law is in Palm coast around Daytona area right near where hwrf makes landfall. I need your prayers she had a heart attack last night and somehow survived it and is in the hospital now heading to cathlab. She nearly died in 2015 was in the hospital for 2 months and had several massive heart attacks. She swore she would not smoke again after that. It did not take long for her to start again despite her seeing the picture we took of her on 1000 wires on life support but I guess that doesn't phase her. I do not get it. They moved away from yonkers 2 years ago and my wife and sister in law feel helpless and understandably so. So keep her in your thoughts and let's at least have this hurricane not destroy their new home.

So sorry to hear, Jman, I hope everything turns out ok. Please keep us informed!

Current RADAR from KAMX

The Waters on the south side of the Island are deep and warm the North Side is shallower, maybe hes heading in that direction to get fuel up.

Saw on twc the damage to abaco...water is to the roofs and most structures are destroyed or heavily damaged. I fear the death toll in the Bahamas is going to be high. These people did not leave why? Some have to ride the storm out outdoors. How can you hold on in 180mph winds. This is so sickening I'm really at a loss for words this is so horrible.

jmanley32 wrote:Saw on twc the damage to abaco...water is to the roofs and most structures are destroyed or heavily damaged. I fear the death toll in the Bahamas is going to be high. These people did not leave why? Some have to ride the storm out outdoors. How can you hold on in 180mph winds. This is so sickening I'm really at a loss for words this is so horrible.

If you are in 180 MPH out side you WILL die no doubt about that.

P.S. Prayers to your MIL and Family.

Jman, prayers for you MIL my man.
GFS takes another tic west by about ~20. Miles. Almost makes landfall and the Space Center.
Night y'all

GFS keeps getting a little closer. Slower storm, closer to the coast, stronger ridge. Tropical storm conditions Eastern LI and not too far from a landfall on the cape

I think, and this is entirely speculation based on the meso-scale pressure perturbations induced by frictional differences between land and ocean (regardless of elevation), but I think we see this start turning as it exits Grand Bahama Island. Reasons being are the following:

1. Right now if you look closely, you will see that the storm is continuing in a symmetric manner along the island as it continues generally westward. The reason for this is because there are equal yet opposing pressure gradient forces being created by the wind field of the storm. On the eastern half, the northerly component of the wind is piling up mass on the northwestern quadrant as the wind decelerates (converges) during its movement from water to land. This creates an imbalance in the northwestern quadrant with relatively “higher pressure” there. Similarly, there is an equal evacuation of mass and corresponding relatively “lower pressure” on the south side of the island as the wind accelerates during its movement from land to open water. This imbalance creates a torque on the system that wants to drive it southward. However, these same effects are occurring on the eastern half of the system just in reverse geographical order. Therefore, these imbalances cancel and result in a track along the island.

2. Once the system begins exiting the island, these imbalances begin to work a bit more constructively. The western flank will retain its northward directed pressure gradient force (pretty much its isallobaric in nature now that I think about it), but the eastern flank will be reoriented thanks to the change in the shape/orientation of Florida’s coastline. The net effect there will be two-fold: 1. Induce a weaker southward directed pressure gradient force (weaker because the wind speeds in play with land will be a fraction of those on the eastern side) 2. Induce a west to east pressure gradient force that acts to prevent a landfall along the Florida Peninsula as the wind speed will be reduced on the western flank thanks to the interaction with the land. This should (theoretically) allow the northward/northwestward drift to occur. Maybe. Lol

Additionally, and this starts getting a bit more complicated, the interaction of the system’s wind field with the Florida Peninsula should also work to draw the system northward along the coast. How can that be after I Just told you above that the local pressure gradient was directed the other way? I didn’t lie or get confused, if that’s what you were thinking haha but in the post above I had only considered effects on mass conservation in the horizontal plane, but not the vertical. In the vertical, this combined orientation of the wind field and the land mass on the system’s western side lead to excessive ascent on the northern side (thanks to increased convergence forcing upward vertical motion/precipitation) with decreased ascent and reduced precipitation on the southern side as the wind diverges. Now, even though the horizontal pressure gradient will be north to south, the law of conservation of mass would actually dictate that the system continues to be drawn northward along/just offshore of the coast in order to fill the void left behind by the more substantially ascending air (evacuate the less substantially ascending air on the southern side). It’s like a vacuum.

rb924119 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:Remember the GEFs are run on the old GFS platform as well.
Rayno says dont use ENS for hcane forecasts.

I know. But it’s still a tool. And I respectfully disagree for several reasons, but he is entitled to his opinions also haha

Rb what is your thinking of where this is going?

I posted a more detailed discussion earlier on in the thread, and I have not changed my thinking at all since that original post. I think this does not make a direct landfall in the U.S., but tracks within a 100-mile swath of the Southeastern U.S. coastline, which is inclusive of the coastline itself. For a very quick, informal idea, I drew the following image on my phone so I could show my family real quick:

Red lines denote the approximate cone of uncertainty, and the black line is my approximate (highly approximate, considering it was drawn with my finger on my phone screen aha):

thank you for rrestating and sorry on vacation I must have missed that page catching up also I hope you are right and no direct hit..but your way does damage as well..

Jman prayers for your mil! Keep us posted

Prayers up for your MIL J Man and for the whole family to have strength in getting through this time with a hurricane no less in the picture.Prayers to for her to be released from the addiction of nicotine which is very hard to beat.

rb, your analysis is excellent and if the hurricane follows that black path you delineate,areas will be spared massive destruction.I am proud of our board here and the work you, sroc,Frank, mugs etc do when the storms come.

He weakened a lot over night 165mph now but not moving 1mph. Cone shifted west and he is so close to Florida coast it's not even funny.if keeps up 10 more mph and be a cat 4. Not that that's still not bad but it's less.

282
WTNT35 KNHC 021450
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE CATASTROPHIC WINDS
AND STORM SURGE AS DORIAN INCHES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward along the
east coast of Florida to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward along the Georgia
coast to the Savannah River.

The Hurricane Warning along the east coast of Florida has been
extended northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward to Altamaha Sound
Georgia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Altamaha Sound Georgia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

My mother in law is now in the warning great. My father in law had eye surgery so he cannot see so he can't even go to the hospital.

Ok, stupid question. if the hurricane is 110 miles east of west palm beach as stated above, and is only moving west at 1mph., it wouldn't arrive at the mainland for 4 1/2 days, right? I assume they mean the actual eye of the storm. So is it going to eventually gain speed? Jman, prayers and best wishes for your in laws. I think just about everybody on the board has family or friends down there, so here's hoping they all get through this impending disaster.

GreyBeard wrote:Ok, stupid question. if the hurricane is 110 miles east of west palm beach as stated above, and is only moving west at 1mph., it wouldn't arrive at the mainland for 4 1/2 days, right? I assume they mean the actual eye of the storm. So is it going to eventually gain speed? Jman, prayers and best wishes for your in laws. I think just about everybody on the board has family or friends down there, so here's hoping they all get through this impending disaster.

It's forecast to pick up speed and move to n-nw later today or early Tuesday. Florida landfall looks unlikely although they will have some affects.

Doesn't need a landfall to get cat 2 winds onshore the Winfield is also going to greatly expand and has Bern. If he is 20 miles offshore hurricane winds will be well onshore and ts force possibly even to western side. He is wobbling wnw at 1mph. Basically stalled how horrific for Bahamas and I'm sure no way of see or hear updates so I can only imagine the panic. So far one fatality sadly a 8 yo boy.