Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion

by **jmanley32** Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:16 pm

heehaw453 wrote:I believe CPK recorded 2.1" yesterday. That seems reasonable. I think now January 2020 to date doubles that of January 2019 total snow output @ CPK. It just goes to show how incredibly difficult it is to predict long range.

Really? Well I do not feel so bad now, I had forgotten how bad January last year was. And somehow still managed 26 inches for the year but tht was including the 7 inches in November.

by **SENJsnowman** Mon Jan 20, 2020 3:56 pm

High temp of 33* today and a forecast low into the teens tonight, imby at exit 80. Both would be my lowest Hi/Low temps going back to last Feb. Any body else hitting their low temps so far for the season today and/or tonight?

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:38 pm

SE NJ prtty sure we or at least I have met this this year, hard to believe you haven't, are you on jersey shore? Do not know where bayville is.

by **dkodgis** Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:32 am

A low of 10 this morning. Heat wave. Now 12 at 6:30 am. Even the dog did not want to go out yet. She went back up on the bed.

by **heehaw453** Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:43 am

12.2 currently and hit a low of 11.8. I believe that is the coldest January of 2020 for me. Most likely will be the coldest January low of 2020.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:50 am

15 degrees.

No thank you

by **Radz** Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:53 am

Surprised to hit a low of 6.8°, coldest of the season thus far...

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:01 am

9.1° best I could do so far, does not beat the 8.8° from Dec 8th.

Could this be the first season since the nightmare winter of 2011/12 with no sub zero days? Still a long way to go but..............

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:34 am

12.5 was low.

by **Radz** Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:45 am

Low of 10.9° this morning, another cold one- unfortunately it looks more and more like we need to go north and west quite a bit to see significant snow this weekend...

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:32 am

Again, no thank you.

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:37 pm

Just a beautiful day. 37 degrees, no wind and clear blue skies.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:35 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Again, no thank you.

Stop being so negative Frank!! LOL, I feel ya, I hate the cold and dry, Now I assume that these temps would be fine to you if it were blitzing out?

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:37 pm

Is there any merit to GFS and Feb 1st time frame? I of course am not buying into anything that far out or for that fact anything this season but thought I would ask if the pattern no matter how bad could support that system being depicted and plenty of cold.

by **amugs** Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:07 pm

Cold, it's cold cause its winter and you live in the Northeast, embrace it and life will better.
Low of 18* this morning.
Still about 1-1.5" of snow on my property over 75% today.

by **brownie** Fri Jan 24, 2020 5:58 am

amugs wrote:Cold, it's cold cause its winter and you live in the Northeast, embrace it and life will better.
Low of 18* this morning.
Still about 1-1.5" of snow on my property over 75% today.

Same here. I only got two inches of snow last week but almost none of it has melted. My property is still almost completely snow covered. There’s even a little bit still left on my deck.

But I’m sure it will all wash away in the rain tomorrow.

I’ve said this before, but I just enjoy whatever snow I get for as long as it’s around. If it’s white in the winter, it’s pretty and I’m happy. Smile

by **docstox12** Fri Jan 24, 2020 6:04 am

20 degrees, clear, calm.
It was nice to have a week of snowpack, that and the cold gave a good winter feel around here.I see WWA's to my SW for FR late tonight and tomorrow morning before the soaking rains come.Seasonable temperatures all next week, so I guess what I got for snow in January will be it.Long range is a thread the needle set up , long shot at best.

by **Radz** Fri Jan 24, 2020 6:18 am

docstox12 wrote:20 degrees, clear, calm.
It was nice to have a week of snowpack, that and the cold gave a good winter feel around here.I see WWA's to my SW for FR late tonight and tomorrow morning before the soaking rains come.Seasonable temperatures all next week, so I guess what I got for snow in January will be it.Long range is a thread the needle set up , long shot at best.

Was thinking the same thing. The snowpack and cold morning temps, along with the prospects of next weekend, even though slim, have lifted the gloom just a bit. 25° currently, not sure i'll still feel this way tomorrow with upper 40's and a possible convective line marching through...

by **dkodgis** Fri Jan 24, 2020 6:29 am

Doc, we are like the Cubs. They ended their drought. We can too. Other chances will present.

Currently 23. I am looking forward to the rain if only to whittle down the snow piles from driveway plowing.

by **heehaw453** Fri Jan 24, 2020 7:52 am

You know the north east has hit rock bottom when Rutland VT @ over 2000' feet elevation can't get accumulating snow in late January. This is quite humbling.

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 Snowfa11

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:02 am

heehaw453 wrote:You know the north east has hit rock bottom when Rutland VT @ over 2000' feet elevation can't get accumulating snow in late January. This is quite humbling.

In four days this has gone from a possible 20 inch snow storm 45 miles NW of NYC, to a storm that will have a tough time accumulating any snow 250 miles north and east of NYC, very humbling indeed.

by **docstox12** Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:52 pm

CP, that map would be something you see in early May up there.If this isn't the bottom of the barrel, I don't know what is.Things HAVE to turn up from here.

by **dkodgis** Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:59 pm

With the temp near 50, no wind, and sun reflecting off snowpack, man is it beautiful today.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:02 pm

docstox12 wrote:CP, that map would be something you see in early May up there.If this isn't the bottom of the barrel, I don't know what is.Things HAVE to turn up from here.

Interesting Doc, but as I was looking through some stats and some operational runs and getting depressed this morning, I had almost the same thought. We have to be nearing or at the bottom of the barrel now don't we? It has to start improving soon, just based on the law of averages.

by **docstox12** Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:08 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:CP, that map would be something you see in early May up there.If this isn't the bottom of the barrel, I don't know what is.Things HAVE to turn up from here.

Interesting Doc, but as I was looking through some stats and some operational runs and getting depressed this morning, I had almost the same thought. We have to be nearing or at the bottom of the barrel now don't we? It has to start improving soon, just based on the law of averages.

I am a big believer in reversions to the mean and from this low point, we have nowhere to go but up.Lot's of snowtime still left to let it happen.We have been hit hard in March in recent years so maybe then.This next weekend storm could thread the needle as well and blow up off the coast.As Tim Robbins said in "Shawshank", "hope is a good thing"!!! Not giving up until March 15th! Hold fast CP!!!

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:14 pm

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:CP, that map would be something you see in early May up there.If this isn't the bottom of the barrel, I don't know what is.Things HAVE to turn up from here.

Interesting Doc, but as I was looking through some stats and some operational runs and getting depressed this morning, I had almost the same thought. We have to be nearing or at the bottom of the barrel now don't we? It has to start improving soon, just based on the law of averages.

I am a big believer in reversions to the mean and from this low point, we have nowhere to go but up.Lot's of snowtime still left to let it happen.We have been hit hard in March in recent years so maybe then.This next weekend storm could thread the needle as well and blow up off the coast.As Tim Robbins said in "Shawshank", "hope is a good thing"!!! Not giving up until March 15th! Hold fast CP!!!

April 1st in the HV Doc. Been hammered many times in late March and even in Early April.

by **heehaw453** Sat Jan 25, 2020 7:46 am

End of January with heavy rain and 38.2. Models say 1.5" and that may be under doing it a bit IMBY. Rest of January will be devoid of any snowfall. Predict minimal snow for quite some time and you will probably be spot on.

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