January 2020 Observations and Discussion

500 level is NG and the needle threading is done for this. The pattern was not conducive to an accumulating snowstorm but we needed a perfect alignment which the EURO was showing for a few runs.
We have to see what next week brings. After that close the shades for a couple of weeks as the MJO convection goes strong over NW Aussie land and drives the phase 4 and 5 down our throats with the SE Ridge. More to write in LR thread.

Baby bear. Language I understand.

Regarding the snow: soon come man

I’m at West Point super foggy

18z NAM for Tuesday night

0z CMC similar to the NAM

4 am dog run and it’s 33 with a stiff wind. About 18 mph and it’s steady. Loud enough to awaken me. Surprisingly loud and steady

0Z Euro was more robust and looks pretty darned similar to latest NAM.  I think especially for those NW of 95 this can render some white gold that sticks. Surface temps will be marginal the closer to coast one is.

Still not a lock at this range, but encouraging nonetheless. It will depend on how several separate short waves interact with one another and expect changes on model solutions in next 24 hours.

This is 06Z NAM






0Z Euro

heehaw453 wrote:0Z Euro was more robust and looks pretty darned similar to latest NAM.  I think especially for those NW of 95 this can render some white gold that sticks. Surface temps will be marginal the closer to coast one is.

Still not a lock at this range, but encouraging nonetheless.  It will depend on how several separate short waves interact with one another and expect changes on model solutions in next 24 hours.

This is 06Z NAM





0Z Euro

Important to point out is that on all models, I’ll show euro gfs and Nam, there is a negative tilted shortwave trough.  The timing and degree of tilt is still somewhat varying with said trough. As the trough hits the coast there will be a LP developing and strengthening and Atlantic moisture to work with. The exact track and degree of strengthing will be critical.   This is an important factor and is what gives the threat of snow some legs but by no means is this an ideal set up here. This all has to be perfect since the pattern to the east and the pattern to the west is anything but ideal here. There is a weak western ridge that is even making this interesting.







There are some differences in exact placement and strength of the shortwave energy. As a result the thermal profiles are different as well as where the surface low tracks exactly and consequently whee the heavier precip falls. As heehaw points out the surface temps are marginal at best along the coast so more than likely the track will needs to be on the SE side of guidance track wise and it would need to thump in order to accumulate along the coast. In order for our NW peeps to get some the track will need to be tucked in more, but this would be at the expense of the coastal plain remaining warmer.  

In a pattern that is absolutely horrendous take this as a gift, don’t expect much, and you get what you get(or don’t get, and you don’t get upset.

We track!!!  

Nice write up sroc.  Latest 12Z NAM continues the idea of the surface low strengthening.  How quickly can it ramp up and how tucked is it to the coast. This look here would be good for LI and coastal NJ.

If i were to bet I'd say a bit more tucked than this representation for the aforementioned SE ridge and the tilt of the trough.  Much better handle on this tomorrow i think.

Wind is whipping out there. 40* with a wind chill of 28*. Winds at 18 mph, 33 mph gusts.

Latest update has the consensus take the system track too far SE. just a scrape with the precip shield to The coast. Again no real expectations here but some room to wobble back north

18z NAM caved. OTS. GFS agrees. Still a little time to turn around but not likely given the progressive flow

Was hoping the short wave in southern Quebec was going to get out of the way of the developing coastal system. But looks like it won't and therefore the coastal low gets shunted off the coast and remains weak. I'll throw in the towel on this threat tomorrow if things continue like this.

Could have been a nice moderate event for some. Que sera, sera.

This sadly could be a hurrah. My NWS forecast for tonight.

Light snow likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible..

0z Nam came back a little west. So close!

LOL!  The "event" for me was tonight.  1" OTG and 29 degrees, so it stuck to everything.  No shutout for January and judging by the radar, CPK should be at least getting an 1" since they're at 32!  Well on the way to beating last January.

Too funny.

weatherwatchermom wrote:STILL SNOWING 1/2 INCH SO FAR

nice!

Coating of snow Mainly on car tops and grass