Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

docstox12 wrote:Wow, almost a full week in November with temps in the 60's??? Years ago, we would get maybe a day or two.This torch bodes ill , not liking it at all.Meanwhile, the Central and North Central states have been getting all the snow.Hope I am wrong, but this looks like a pattern setting up here.

I feel like this has happened before. Back in the 2011/12.... although that was an awful winter.

Hi all,

Larry Cosgrove will be joining the Joe (Cioffi) and Joe (Rao) show tonight on Youtube at 7:30 pm. Just search for Joe Cioffi's channel. Larry will be talking about his winter outlook, will be interesting for sure!

Love that show, I am there every week for the show they have!!! Very interesting tonight hope he has a better outlook then Jim Witt had for this winter!

jimv45 wrote:Love that show, I am there every week for the show they have!!! Very interesting tonight hope he has a better outlook then Jim Witt had for this winter!

Jim, did you watch? Not great news, but not too bad, thinks it will be a later winter, February-March. Not to hold our breath for much before then.

Dunnzoo wrote:

jimv45 wrote:Love that show, I am there every week for the show they have!!! Very interesting tonight hope he has a better outlook then Jim Witt had for this winter!

Jim, did you watch? Not great news, but not too bad, thinks it will be a later winter, February-March. Not to hold our breath for much before then.

Yeah no thats not great news, models look very boring over next 16 days. Not expecting snow yet but even northern NY isn't really show anything. Is this our new norm of 2-4 inches of snow a year in NYC going forward? Would that not have a huge impact on the climate if that did in fact come true?

Yes Janet it was an interesting watch and a little better then Jim Witt forecast. When he told you about February being better I was somewhat relieved.I rather have front loaded winters but at this point I will take anything,let's hope he is right about February and March.

Here is earthlight’s (John Homenuk) forecast. Don’t shoot the messenger. Still waiting for Isotherm

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2020/11/09/nyc-winter-forecast-2020-2021-warmer-less-snowy-than-normal/

Here is Larry's thoughts, sorry it's a little hard to read:

Funny how these 2 are so different! Hopefully Isotherm's helps shed some more light.

Dunnzoo wrote:Funny how these 2 are so different! Hopefully Isotherm's helps shed some more light.

Totally Janet. I’ve been following Larry for a long time. He is great but he leans heavily on the analogs. Problem is this year is that any mod or strong La Niña years don’t have a ton in in common with the current SST configurations anywhere else in the world, the mean pattern leading into the current time frame is very different from La Niña years past, and the timing of sunspot cycle is vastly diff to prev analogue years. So LR forecasters are needing to add a bit of intuition into the forecast this year. We shall see. I know earthlight and Isotherm corroborate when formulating their conclusions but they have differed in years past. Isotherm has been the most consistently accurate LR forecaster I’ve seen over the past 3-5 yrs. so while of course he isn’t perfect his thoughts weigh the most in my kind until proven otherwise.

Looks like Larry is the outlier here...

Isotherm #1.

heehaw453 wrote:This is from Steve DiMartino a meteorologist that covers the area.

It's thoughtful analysis and yet another opinion.

https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-december-2020-to-february-2021/

Sounds like every winter here lol. Some below temp days, followed by some above temp days. Some snow, some ice, some rain lol.

sroc4 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:Funny how these 2 are so different! Hopefully Isotherm's helps shed some more light.

Totally Janet. I’ve been following Larry for a long time. He is great but he leans heavily on the analogs. Problem is this year is that any mod or strong La Niña years don’t have a ton in in common with the current SST configurations anywhere else in the world, the mean pattern leading into the current time frame is very different from La Niña years past, and the timing of sunspot cycle is vastly diff to prev analogue years. So LR forecasters are needing to add a bit of intuition into the forecast this year. We shall see. I know earthlight and Isotherm corroborate when formulating their conclusions but they have differed in years past. Isotherm has been the most consistently accurate LR forecaster I’ve seen over the past 3-5 yrs. so while of course he isn’t perfect his thoughts weigh the most in my kind until proven otherwise.

Thanks for the kind words, Scott. Was going to post my outlook here today (I see someone posted it above). Can be read on my website:

https://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Also, note: earthlight/John and I don't collaborate on the winter outlooks (my outlooks are entirely my own viewpoints). Only one winter (2013-14) we collaborated.

Unfortunately, wish I could deliver better news, but this is where the data led me. My most significant disagreement with many of the forecasts out there involves the placement of the warm/cooler anomalies in the CONUS, and the timing of the colder/warmer periods. I target January for the best opportunity for cold/snow, rather than the consensus which seems to be December.

Isotherm wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:Funny how these 2 are so different! Hopefully Isotherm's helps shed some more light.

Totally Janet. I’ve been following Larry for a long time. He is great but he leans heavily on the analogs. Problem is this year is that any mod or strong La Niña years don’t have a ton in in common with the current SST configurations anywhere else in the world, the mean pattern leading into the current time frame is very different from La Niña years past, and the timing of sunspot cycle is vastly diff to prev analogue years. So LR forecasters are needing to add a bit of intuition into the forecast this year. We shall see. I know earthlight and Isotherm corroborate when formulating their conclusions but they have differed in years past. Isotherm has been the most consistently accurate LR forecaster I’ve seen over the past 3-5 yrs. so while of course he isn’t perfect his thoughts weigh the most in my kind until proven otherwise.

Thanks for the kind words, Scott. Was going to post my outlook here today (I see someone posted it above). Can be read on my website:

https://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Also, note: earthlight/John and I don't collaborate on the winter outlooks (my outlooks are entirely my own viewpoints). Only one winter (2013-14) we collaborated.

Unfortunately, wish I could deliver better news, but this is where the data led me. My most significant disagreement with many of the forecasts out there involves the placement of the warm/cooler anomalies in the CONUS, and the timing of the colder/warmer periods. I target January for the best opportunity for cold/snow, rather than the consensus which seems to be December.

Tom,
Thanks for posting it here and hopefully you'll both be right - Dec and Jan and then we thaw out in Feb and get on with spring!!! Always look forward to your write ups. Have my dictionary handy as always!!
Mugs

If I were to say anything as a novice about long-term, I would not be able to peep because after wish-casting (which I try not to do), I don't know enough about the weather to say much. After some years here, I am getting the hang of it (seeing the same things coming up so I can discern). This board is a great learning opportunity; thanks, everyone, for sharing your expertise.

MJO says Phase 1-2 on a slow roller move GEFS


Phase 2

Isotherm wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:Funny how these 2 are so different! Hopefully Isotherm's helps shed some more light.

Totally Janet. I’ve been following Larry for a long time. He is great but he leans heavily on the analogs. Problem is this year is that any mod or strong La Niña years don’t have a ton in in common with the current SST configurations anywhere else in the world, the mean pattern leading into the current time frame is very different from La Niña years past, and the timing of sunspot cycle is vastly diff to prev analogue years. So LR forecasters are needing to add a bit of intuition into the forecast this year. We shall see. I know earthlight and Isotherm corroborate when formulating their conclusions but they have differed in years past. Isotherm has been the most consistently accurate LR forecaster I’ve seen over the past 3-5 yrs. so while of course he isn’t perfect his thoughts weigh the most in my kind until proven otherwise.

Thanks for the kind words, Scott. Was going to post my outlook here today (I see someone posted it above). Can be read on my website:

https://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Also, note: earthlight/John and I don't collaborate on the winter outlooks (my outlooks are entirely my own viewpoints). Only one winter (2013-14) we collaborated.

Unfortunately, wish I could deliver better news, but this is where the data led me. My most significant disagreement with many of the forecasts out there involves the placement of the warm/cooler anomalies in the CONUS, and the timing of the colder/warmer periods. I target January for the best opportunity for cold/snow, rather than the consensus which seems to be December.

Hey Tom. I hope now that your final thoughts are finalized and officially “out there” you’ll find some time to kick back and relax a bit. I know many years ago I remember you and John had some sort of collaboration but honestly I had no real clue to what extent. Anyway thank you as usual for your time and efforts right or wrong. Look forward to seeing how it all plays out.

Cheers

Finally some winter weather headed our way next week real nice cold shot Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday temps in the 20s with the teens inland highs in the 30s with maybe some snow showers around. Mjo phase 8 1 and 2 will do that. Some Mets think the mjo will be predominantly in 1 2 and 3 this year as opposed to 4 5 and 6 the last few years. The eps weeklies are starting to look better as we head into December especially the middle part which signs of a negative nao and not a hostile Pacific. we shall see