Re: February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast

by **heehaw453** Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:26 pm

Moderate to heavy snow (bigger dendrites). About 4.5" otg.

20/19.3

by **oldtimer** Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:28 pm

23/29 First Flakes Whew!

by Zhukov1945 Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:31 pm

Looks like some pretty solid bands setting up over philly now moving NE

by gigs68 Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:38 pm

First Flakes falling in Commack. Northwest SuffolK LI

by **billg315** Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:38 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Moderate to heavy snow (bigger dendrites). About 4.5" otg.

20/19.3

This is a pretty good unscientific snow rate calculator because each of those bands coming through your area rolls through my area and every hour you’re a little over an inch ahead of my accumulation. Lol. So those bands must be just about 1” per hour rates.

by **jmanley32** Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:40 pm

Who called it hmm? NYC state of emergency, but not the rest of the area?

https://abc7ny.com/nyc-schools-closed-snow-how-much-mayor-bill-de-blasio/10187668/

by **billg315** Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:41 pm

Zhukov1945 wrote:Looks like some pretty solid bands setting up over philly now moving NE

Yeah there is a heavy band from Philly back through Montgomery Co that is probably headed this way after the current moderate to heavy band passes.

by **rb924119** Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:44 pm

Ok, so I have some ponderances based on my observations of current radar trends and broad recollection of the general evolution of the modeling. The first image is a current radar image with the overlays of where I think current banding is indicating the eventual development of quasi-stationary, pivoting banding features (in red). The northern one should become established BEFORE the southern one, as it will be forced by the general large-scale deformation/frontogenesis. The southern one will be associated with the maturing low- and mid-level cyclones tomorrow.

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 10 B9671610

The second image depicts how I think these same bands will orient themselves before becoming quasi-stationary as the the storm matured and then occludes, before they begin to then expand away as the system decays.

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 10 48881510

The area in red between the two bands denotes where there will likely be a period of subsidence as the first band begins to rotate a little further north before the secondary band becomes established to recover. That region would then shift a bit further west-northwest during the maturation and occlusion processes. So, these two areas are where I think we may see the best totals, BUT THIS IS SOLELY MY OPINION BASED ON WHAT IM SEEING IN THE RADAR TRENDS WITH SOME PREVIOUS THOUGHTS MIXED IN. I’m testing a hypothesis here that you can pick out areas of *preferred* banding tendencies based on certain radar/early precipitation trends. Will be fun to watch evolve at the very least.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:44 pm

Wow

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

by Zhukov1945 Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:47 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

Love that many of us have 3-4" before the real bands even get started. Great sign.

by **rb924119** Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:48 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

That yellow band is brightbanding, indicating the mix line. Confirmed with Dual-pol.

by Zhukov1945 Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:51 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Wow

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

That yellow band is brightbanding, indicating the mix line. Confirmed with Dual-pol.

Is it too basic to think that the mix line going forward is likely Annapolis MD (which is right on the edge) due NE up to just east of NYC?

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:53 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Wow

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

That yellow band is brightbanding, indicating the mix line. Confirmed with Dual-pol.

Yup

But check out that CNJ band. Who's under that?

by **1190ftalt** Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:53 pm

3 inches in Stillwater NJ at 1190 feet altitude ( minus the 1/2 inch of frozen snow from Tuesday ) , 16 degrees and a slight wind out of the east, steady fine snow coming down. Just got done shoveling 2 1/2 inches of powder off the driveway , Snow is Good !

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 10 B00ec410

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 10 A0deec10

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 10 Fdaef810

by **heehaw453** Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:54 pm

So that 0Z NAM now puts the CCB towards the Mason Dixon Line. LOL.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:55 pm

by **billg315** Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:55 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Wow

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

That yellow band is brightbanding, indicating the mix line. Confirmed with Dual-pol.

Yup

But check out that CNJ band. Who's under that?

I’m on the western end of that band. We’re getting pretty decent snow rates here.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:55 pm

10am tomorrow per 00z NAM

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 10 Image.png.8b8aa08292608c1ed944f2aab2c405af

Here is 1pm

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 10 Nam-218-all-ma-refc_ptype-2202400.png.f25781f0866eb2f7234606f17573c660

by **rb924119** Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:55 pm

Zhukov1945 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Wow

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

That yellow band is brightbanding, indicating the mix line. Confirmed with Dual-pol.

Is it too basic to think that the mix line going forward is likely Annapolis MD (which is right on the edge) due NE up to just east of NYC?

Depends who you ask haha in my opinion, I think that’s pretty fair. But others would (respectfully, and fairly) disagree haha

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:57 pm

NAM caving to EURO (look at SE PA)

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 10 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_fh17_trend.gif.1c4ef26918feabe4fba05e609b46c1f2

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 10 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_fh17_trend.gif.1c4ef26918feabe4fba05e609b46c1f2

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:58 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:10am tomorrow per 00z NAM

Here is 1pm

4pm

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 10 Image-thumb-png-b15f516116189c8dec09c52c79a907b3

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:58 pm

MADONNE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 10 FEEF3-E14-2-AAC-4683-A2-B9-00-B860-E3-D955-thumb-png-31d2057d24beb36e285984cad90332b3

by stAtic9 Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:58 pm

I'm just south of Trenton in Roebling. I'll be in the band coming through Philly shortly.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:59 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:10am tomorrow per 00z NAM

Here is 1pm

4pm

7pm

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 10 Image.png.075b40a53577db3e9ebe4773a068482c

by Zhukov1945 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:00 pm

billg315 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Wow

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

That yellow band is brightbanding, indicating the mix line. Confirmed with Dual-pol.

Yup

But check out that CNJ band. Who's under that?

I’m on the western end of that band. We’re getting pretty decent snow rates here.

Yeah I'm close to you, meant on a going forward basis as this thing advances

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:01 pm

The NAM is close to unleashing King Kong on us. I guess Kong is > than Godzilla

by **Joe Snow** Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:02 pm

Current Radar nice banding flowing northward

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 10 2-1-2112

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