February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast

Frank_Wx wrote:

This northern s/w phases into the trough around 7am Tuesday morning and reenergizes the snow bands over our area, per 00z NAM. It ends up snowing into early Wednesday morning.

Not that I buy the NAM but this whole setup impressed the hell out of me for days. In particular the depth of trough and the inability for it to move. Who the heck knows what NS vortex spins down that perpendicular cliff. It's interesting run by the NAM.

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

This northern s/w phases into the trough around 7am Tuesday morning and reenergizes the snow bands over our area, per 00z NAM. It ends up snowing into early Wednesday morning.

Do you think thats even plausible? I mean thjat would change everything.

Yea, I do. Maybe not into Wednesday morning but I think there's enough upper level energy to be had that we snow through Tuesday evening

Final NAM snow map

And that map does not even account for the higher ratio we would see monday night into tuesday, so I would say NAM just showed 30"+ across NNJ

First flakes at 9:26 pm in Brewster, NY.

Wow...had 4.5-5" otg an hour ago, light snow since then, but looks like one more really nice band is gonna do some damage before the change over. Looking at 6" on the front end thump. Absolute perfection.

Now, phase 2- DRY SLOT!!!! Need to buy a good 4-6 maybe 6-8 hours with some very light mist/dry slotting over night. I have no idea if there is anything in the upper/mid/lower levels to support my dastardly plan, but if you look at the radar, know what I'm sayin'...

Then wait for good old coastal to pop and see where that it is and where it heads. Aint no thing to be off by 15-25 miles. I hope, lol!!

31*, moderate snow, howling wind and just loving it here in Bayville.

Oh damn. One more band coming through before it takes a lull for me I think. It's definitely worth a more minutes of my sleep gone.

Still nothing here in Southern Dutchess county Wappingers Falls. A coworker challenged me and other s to a 10 dollars bet. Snow total who gets closer. I imediately took that bet. Im thinking of going with 13 inches. Does anyone have a good reason to persuade me away from this?

The HRRR just spit out over 3’ at my parents’. I’m done with weather.

I know I shouldn't have bothered to look but is there any merit to Accuweather showing the mix line moving NW through NJ looks like all the way along 287? They are still also claiming the jackpot zones are NE PA to SW Upstate NY.

rb924119 wrote:The HRRR just spit out over 3’ at my parents’. I’m done with weather.

Wow, 3' is possible with this storm no?

So glad we stayed put. We got a snow storm for goodness sakes. The pics are from 3 pm, just as the snowfall really started to pick up. It's still snowing really good out right now as a matter of fact!

To all those north and west, I can only think to quote that wise and rotund ruffian from just north of Angel Beach, Florida, Mr. Porky:
Here comes your night to remembaaaaa!!!!!

Fededle22 wrote:I know I shouldn't have bothered to look but is there any merit to Accuweather showing the mix line moving NW through NJ looks like all the way along 287?  They are still also claiming the jackpot zones are NE PA to SW Upstate NY.

Well, rb had been suggesting something like that all along. So while it may not be the outcome most are going with right now, can’t say there’s no merit to it.

2004blackwrx wrote:Still nothing here in Southern Dutchess county Wappingers Falls. A coworker challenged me and other s to a 10 dollars bet. Snow total who gets closer. I imediately took that bet. Im thinking of going with 13 inches. Does anyone have a good reason to persuade me away from this?

Tough call for sure. Ratios should be pretty high, 12-15:1 I would think. Latest nam with ratios gives you about 20. I think the floor is 13. I would go with 16 or so. I'm hoping for 15 or so in Hyde Park.

SENJsnowman wrote:So glad we stayed put. We got a snow storm for goodness sakes. The pics are from 3 pm, just as the snowfall really started to pick up. It's still snowing really good out right now as a matter of fact!

To all those north and west, I can only think to quote that wise and rotund ruffian from just north of Angel Beach, Florida, Mr. Porky:
Here comes your night to remembaaaaa!!!!!

I’m glad staying put worked out for you guys. That’s awesome!

SENJsnowman wrote:So glad we stayed put. We got a snow storm for goodness sakes. The pics are from 3 pm, just as the snowfall really started to pick up. It's still snowing really good out right now as a matter of fact!

To all those north and west, I can only think to quote that wise and rotund ruffian from just north of Angel Beach, Florida, Mr. Porky:
Here comes your night to remembaaaaa!!!!!

In the end, this is what it’s all about

Top one is 8 pm, bottom one is 10 pm. All I'm saying is that dry slot seems to want to get here a lot more than the rain does.  I'm betting on the rain, but I'm rooting for that dry slot!!!  

hyde345 wrote:

2004blackwrx wrote:Still nothing here in Southern Dutchess county Wappingers Falls. A coworker challenged me and other s to a 10 dollars bet. Snow total who gets closer. I imediately took that bet. Im thinking of going with 13 inches. Does anyone have a good reason to persuade me away from this?

Tough call for sure. Ratios should be pretty high, 12-15:1 I would think. Latest nam with ratios gives you about 20. I think the floor is 1. I would go with 16 or so. I'm hoping for 15 or so in Hyde Park.

Thanks Hyde I am usually a pessimist with these things. Ill up my bet to 14. Either I win the money or the snow prize of 20 inches. Either way a win win.

Probably a couple of inches so far here in Atlantic Highlands, maybe just over. Very light at the moment, hopefully see some good accumulation tomorrow. It’s been fun with this one. I have learnt quite a bit too. Thank you guys

Rgem also snows until early Wednesday.

Heaviest snow of the day right now...also a sure sign that the rain is finally near. Will get out there in a few for last call measurementing...

1/2 here snowing moderately start atb7:20.
Ready f or 56 more hours of snow!!
@Joe Snow yes some isolated locations may see 3'

[quote="hyde345"]Rgem also snows until early Wednesday. [/quote
That is one long duration snow

Greenpoint, Brooklyn, 24.1 degrees:  Not much going on here, very light, very wet, snow falling.  Ground sparsely covered.

This 35dbz band coming through CNJ is puking snow not even part of the transfer coastal low pressure. 1-2.5" per hour rates