Re: February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast

by CnWestMilford76 Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:06 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Wind gusts at the surface per 18z NAM

This will likely cause NWS to insure blizzard warnings.

by **heehaw453** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:06 pm

And I say again, I think the Euro has the best handle on this storm. I still think the NAM is struggling with the placement and evolution.

by **amugs** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:15 pm

by **jmanley32** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:15 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
The latest 48-hour HRRR puts northern NJ, southern NY & northeast PA in the "sweet spot" of heavy snow bands on Monday ️

Snow rates could reach 2-3 inches per hour at times during the afternoon.

Yellow outline <=> potential for 1 foot
Orange outline <=> potential for 2 feet pic.twitter.com/DexhvxUTQZ
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) January 31, 2021

less than equal too or greater than lol well that covers him completely. And 1 foot? I think it's go be the greater than.

by lznachu Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:18 pm

colosa4 wrote:Congrats on the 1000 members. I also want to thank everyone for the wonderful analysis that is always present on this board. I've been lurking since the 7 online days and always found the posts here to be very educational.

Yes same here, was a lurker on 7online and came over here. One of my fav things to do when a major snowstorm is approaching is following the excellent analysis here. Thanks for all your input! Congrats on the 1000 members! Thumbs up

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:18 pm

Rooster89 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
Rooster89 wrote:Yeah I’ll take that firmly planted in the 20-25+ zone. My almost 5 year old and my 3 year old have not seen a real snow yet and this is looking like it.

Hey where are you, I think we are close.
hey neighbor

Middletown.

by **jmanley32** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:18 pm

amugs wrote:

wow area wide 18 to 24. Nothing else to say. Oh and the winds wow.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:21 pm

by **jmanley32** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:21 pm

Wonder when nws pulls trigger for blizzard warnings. Oh and the grocery store. Totally insane. Finally home. Was just our normal shop just a bad day to pick. Got less perishables in case lose power.

by **bloc1357** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:22 pm

Congrats on the 1000 members! It is great being here with all of you, been around since the old ABC 7 board here!

by **frank 638** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:24 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Wonder when nws pulls trigger for blizzard warnings. Oh and the grocery store. Totally insane. Finally home. Was just our normal shop just a bad day to pick. Got less perishables in case lose power.

forget it about it I was at shoprite in new Rochelle Just to get to the self checkout lane I spent almost 40 minutes on line Then I want to Conti’s bakery in Morris Park Another long line

by **WeatherBob** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:25 pm

That’s the total at 42 hrs, NAM continues the snow until tues night!

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:25 pm

NAM does not look right to me with the precip distribution across SE PA/SNJ. Really underdone compared to other models.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:30 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:NAM does not look right to me with the precip distribution across SE PA/SNJ. Really underdone compared to other models.

I think it is underdone in the south and overdone in the north

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 3 Image-thumb-png-b8d8d9d2d9e2a6d2a10fe55388980a8b

by **heehaw453** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:30 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:NAM does not look right to me with the precip distribution across SE PA/SNJ. Really underdone compared to other models.

Agree 100%. With this track and explosive development of the mid-levels Mason-Dixon Line on north should be in game for banding. NAM is chopping that way too far north IMO of course. I think it'll be north of Baltimore but not too far north of there gets in the banding based on the track and intensification.

It also chopped the westward progression of the banding before it finally decided that west was in the game.

by **amugs** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:32 pm

UMM HOUSTON WE HAVE A REBOOT!!

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 3 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_41

by **amugs** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:33 pm

WTH!!! WEDNESDAY MORNING 4AM STILL SNOWING!!

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 3 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_44

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:35 pm

There's still dry air trying to mix out over our area. Once the dry air is gone, you should see more of a steady snowfall. Based on your observations, already seems like PA and WNJ is out of the dry air cycle.

by **WeatherBob** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:36 pm

It might have it right since the mid level system centers are pretty close to S NJ and S PA

by **jmanley32** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:38 pm

amugs wrote:WTH!!! WEDNESDAY MORNING 4AM STILL SNOWING!!

A few other model runs hinted at this, craziness. Will it verify? This is go be one heck of a observation thread lol

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:38 pm

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 3 Captur12

Already seeing frontogenesis across central jersey

told ya

by **amugs** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:39 pm

by **amugs** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:40 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:

Already seeing frontogenesis across central jersey

Great friggin sign - not progged on models yesterday until later tonight early AM.

ALL that latent heat from teh storm out in teh midwest working here

by **jmanley32** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:42 pm

3km name doesnt go past 60 hrs and its still snowing thats redonkulus even NYC area sees over 20 inches on this run. Add another inch or so and I would say its done.

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 3 3km_na11

by **amugs** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:42 pm

by **jmanley32** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:45 pm

amugs wrote:

snikeys!! They just keep raising and raising it, local mets better get on this, oh and Yonkers still has not treated any roads!! Other Frank did the Bronx treat the roads or New Rochelle? Yonkers hills and that will be a disaster lots of stranded people if they dare go out.

by **bloc1357** Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:48 pm

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