Long Range Discussions 21.0

Major ice storm is right.

Hopefully, but being the worrying sort I don't care for the idea of a wonderful snowstorm being followed up by the kinda ice that could ruin things for days. I'm only looking at .5", but some of you face the possibility of an inch of ice. Yikes.

The models are really all over the place with the next few systems.  It looks like the trying to develop another wave on Monday Between the Sunday morning and Tuesday systems.  One thing that seems certain is that the lower levels are going to be cold so look for some type of wintry precipitation

TheAresian wrote:Hopefully, but being the worrying sort I don't care for the idea of a wonderful snowstorm being followed up by the kinda ice that could ruin things for days. I'm only looking at .5", but some of you face the possibility of an inch of ice. Yikes.

trust me 0.5 frz can do a lot tree damage, 2 yrs ago as stated earlier we have about 0.25 and a few large trees came down and many smaller were stripped of all their branches. 0.25+ would criple the entire area and up to 1 inch would be insane and terrible.

TWC is already popping up 6-12 for next Tuesday's storm and a posting saying watching for the potential of a winter storm. Like mentioned earlier, every time that's happened this winter, we've gotten popped.

I'm intrigued...

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Irish wrote:TWC is already popping up 6-12 for next Tuesday's storm and a posting saying watching for the potential of a winter storm. Like mentioned earlier, every time that's happened this winter, we've gotten popped.

I'm intrigued...

Be careful, TWC app can't distinguish amounts between snow, sleet and freezing rain. If it sees close to an inch of frozen precip on whatever model it's interpreting on the app, that becomes 6-12 inches of snow.

Mid level temps could be an issue on Tuesday. You could be looking at 4 inches of snow, followed by an inch of sleet, and a 1/4 inch of freezing rain. That scenario would also be 1 inch of liquid frozen but would not be interpreted that way on the app.

Right, I'm not banking anything I see for a storm that's almost a week away. The only thing I was saying is that there's something on tap. We have a bunch of time to see what it is...

12z Euro holding fast to its idea of the Tuesday system quickly transitioning from snow to a major ice and sleet event across much of the area with the more significant snowfall well north and west. The GFS is a little snowier, but also has a significant period of frz and sleet. If they are on to something than this storm may not bring the snow totals everyone is looking for, but could be extremely disruptive. If anyone remembers the ice storms of 1994, get a half inch or more of freezing rain and watch everything in the region grind to an immediate halt.

heehaw453 wrote:

billg315 wrote:12z Euro holding fast to its idea of the Tuesday system quickly transitioning from snow to a major ice and sleet event across much of the area with the more significant snowfall well north and west. The GFS is a little snowier, but also has a significant period of frz and sleet. If they are on to something than this storm may not bring the snow totals everyone is looking for, but could be extremely disruptive. If anyone remembers the ice storms of 1994, get a half inch or more of freezing rain and watch everything in the region grind to an immediate halt.

I'm taking the under on ZR and think if anything sleet will be the predominant frozen if the low transfer doesn't occur before hitting WV.  The high probably will provide enough cold air to support sleet.  At least I sure hope so.  I can live with an inch of sleet, but don't want an inch of ZR as that'd be devastating.

Hey its 2021, no one said ending 2020 would mean 2021 would be any better, lets hope not a inch of sleet is no biggie, a a inch of ice on the other hand...0.25 is a big enough issue already. i can;t imagine 1.0 and no i do not recall 1994 but i am going to look it up now.

Okay that storm did not effect us it was in the south unless im looking at the wrong one.

jmanley32 wrote:Okay that storm did not effect us it was in the south unless I'm looking at the wrong one.

JMAN MLK storm driving rainstorm to driving ice and then snowstorm - crippled us for a full week.

heehaw453 wrote:Franks' point on the banana high is very good.  This would be one hell of a snowstorm as shown the 18Z GFS.  You have such tremendous frontogenesis with extreme low level cold and enough mid-level cold for snow.  Rates would be insane for those that keep the mid-level cold.

This is what we want a much further SE storm to keep the mid levels at 850 and 700 warming. Need this to trend this way and hold for 4 more days!!

heehaw453 wrote:Pretty close on the Euro actually.  Areas like i mentioned before do very well.  Keep this mid-level energy about 75 miles SE of this area and big snows for a lot of folks on the board.  This is far from set in stone at this range.

Hmmmmmm

Nice push of cold to beat back that SE ridge a bit - every little bit helps and keep us colder and the mid levels to boot