Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 15, 2021 8:59 pm

amugs wrote:EPS weeklies
-EPO, -AO and NAO

Delusional or onto something?

If there is a second warming and displacement of the Strat PV then we'll see this pattern resurface

It may not be as extreme given it will happen in the month of March, but enough to cause issues

Climo is a factor in March

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:33 pm

Definitely keep an eye on next Monday. This is a potent short wave with cold air mass.

Lots can change, but all modelling seems to have this shortwave.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 10 Euromo10

by **billg315** Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:41 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Definitely keep an eye on next Monday. This is a potent short wave with cold air mass.

Lots can change, but all modelling seems to have this shortwave.

Is that a little too far west as depicted for snow rather than rain along the coast though? (granted too far out to pin down where these things eventually set up shop)

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:46 pm

billg315 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Definitely keep an eye on next Monday. This is a potent short wave with cold air mass.

Lots can change, but all modelling seems to have this shortwave.

Is that a little too far west as depicted for snow rather than rain along the coast though? (granted too far out to pin down where these things eventually set up shop)

The mid-level energy would need to be further south, but the antecedent air mass is very cold. It wouldn't take much for this to slide a little south and produce a moderate event. Say 100/150 miles or so would make a big difference. That's just details at this range we cannot know. Just a window of opportunity I think.

by **amugs** Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:35 am

GEFS coming around to HEE HAW STORM Monday - More of a CNJ North storm but a little more did and trough axis tilt and from SNJ into NY State we'll be in business. Don't sleep on this one either

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Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 10 1614027600-rqjUt8iFiO8

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 17, 2021 11:52 am

Monday's storm is dependent on where the ULL associated with Friday's storm goes. If it can stay in the 50/50 region it should suppress heights enough along the coast to keep temperatures cold to support snowfall. However, latest GFS does not show much blocking in the 50/50 region and it has this poorly placed HP just off the coast.

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Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 10 Gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_20

by **heehaw453** Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:42 am

This pattern is going to remain favorable for winter weather IMO into March. We have had severe and consistent -AO this year and futures are looking good for that to remain the base state.

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by **SNOW MAN** Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:02 am

The Mets/Professors at Penn State did there climate watch segment for the next 30 days and they agree with you Heehaw. They talked about more Artic intrusions and moisture coming into play from the Gulf of Mexico with an active storm track.
Plus no really as they put "woo it feels like a Spring day moments". their call was for no more than 5 days above 5* above normal. There last thing they said was A STEADY DIET OF STORMS. Now whether there white or wet we shall see.

by **algae888** Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:43 am

Well next Friday/Saturday hz piqued my interest. Looks like a piece of the polar vortex breaks off and slides thru eastern Canada as a potent s/w dives into the lower Mississippi valley and tries to close off south of us.
Since this seems to be a nyc winter that keeps on giving, I think there is a pretty good chance we snowagain next weekend

by **billg315** Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:49 am

I like Al and Heehaw's track record so far this winter of sniffing out these long range events. So I'll gladly go place my bets now.

by **algae888** Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:56 am

00z euro and gfs has the storm. 12z gfs and it's twin are suppressed. 12z cmc is a cutter. Nice 1037mb hp in South eastern Canada. On a side note we need about 16 more inches of snow in February to have the snowiest February on record in nyc. We have a shot!

by **amugs** Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:09 pm

Monday need a bit more digging and we can work with this. Surface is a touch warm 34-36* but lest see how this plays out.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 10 Gfs_z500_vort_us_fh102_trend.gif.f3527b4817807419de173b449d9ea300

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 10 Gfs_z500_vort_us_fh102_trend.gif.f3527b4817807419de173b449d9ea300

by **amugs** Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:16 pm

"March, in like a lion out like a lamb." GFS predicting the first part should be correct as blocking shifts from Europe closer to Greenland allowing relatively colder temperatures to return to both Europe & the Eastern US. Still just a forecast but impressive expanse of cold air! pic.twitter.com/7BDG3zTVvV
— Judah Cohen (@judah47) February 18, 2021

by **amugs** Thu Feb 18, 2021 5:42 pm

Monday trend?

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by **Irish** Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:56 pm

amugs wrote:Monday trend?

Don't like that look.

by **jmanley32** Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:31 pm

00z GFS for Monday is colder and snow more down to coast of NYC not into NJ but NNJ does well also the LHV doc CP : )

by **heehaw453** Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:23 am

NW of I-95 there is growing support for several inches of snow on Monday. How far snowfall gets to the coast if at all is open for debate.

This is GFSv16 and is very aggressive with the digging and the energy. The tilt and depth of the 500 mb trough gives this a chance to stay more south IMO and be more frozen than not. If this is true then there will be a nice event on Monday especially NW of the I-95. Quite honestly I've been impressed with the new GFS on its thermal profiles and placement of the mid-level energies.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 10 Gfsv1610

by **docstox12** Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:26 am

heehaw453 wrote:NW of I-95 there is growing support for several inches of snow on Monday. How far snowfall gets to the coast if at all is open for debate.

This is GFSv16 and is very aggressive with the digging and the energy. The tilt and depth of the 500 mb trough gives this a chance to stay more south IMO and be more frozen than not. If this is true then there will be a nice event on Monday especially NW of the I-95. Quite honestly I've been impressed with the new GFS on its thermal profiles and placement of the mid-level energies.

Sounds good to me in the LHV.We are short a few inches from the current system(s).

by **heehaw453** Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:58 am

12Z GFS/CMC really digging the trough and consequently produce snowfall for greater scope of forum. Hmm? Does this have 2-4" potential? Of course surface temps could be an issue depending on when it arrived, but it's starting to look more promising to me with the placement and digging of the trough. Still plenty of time for adjustments as we're talking Monday...

by **billg315** Fri Feb 19, 2021 12:05 pm

Interesting on the NAM, the upper air temperature profile isn't all that bad for Monday's system but it looks like the surface temps are just a bit too high to support frozen precip (a lot of upper 30s and low 40s). The GFS Para has similar upper level temps, but slightly colder surface air (low to mid 30s except the shore) thus more snow. I assume this is a result of the Low on the GFS Para being slightly further south, so lets see where that trends.

by **amugs** Fri Feb 19, 2021 12:33 pm

billg315 wrote:Interesting on the NAM, the upper air temperature profile isn't all that bad for Monday's system but it looks like the surface temps are just a bit too high to support frozen precip (a lot of upper 30s and low 40s). The GFS Para has similar upper level temps, but slightly colder surface air (low to mid 30s except the shore) thus more snow. I assume this is a result of the Low on the GFS Para being slightly further south, so lets see where that trends.

Inland areas stand best for accumulating snow for this storm Western NJ elevations EPA at this stage but it is ticking colder with each run - once we get these waves of LP out we can then focus on next weeks storms - notice the plural - bookends ?? I like bookends great book store!

Monday 12Z GFS

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Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 10 Euml-RPXAAY0LG4?format=png&name=900x900

by **amugs** Fri Feb 19, 2021 12:41 pm

Friday time frame
Good look but need the SW to amplify a bit more or heights to rise a bit on the WC. As we start our transition to spring doesn't take much to get a SW to amply due to the wavelengths transitioning as well.

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Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 10 EumpVYVXYAARt4o?format=png&name=medium

by **billg315** Fri Feb 19, 2021 4:39 pm

Models have me intrigued for a sneaky snow event Monday. Not a big snow. One of those snows where it has a hard time sticking because it is daytime and the temps are just above freezing, but gets heavy enough that you end up with a couple inches accumulation anyway.

And next Friday has me really intrigued. While some models show the heavy snow south of here, I'm almost certain that comes back north and we are in the high threat zone for that one.

by **heehaw453** Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:07 pm

billg315 wrote:Models have me intrigued for a sneaky snow event Monday. Not a big snow. One of those snows where it has a hard time sticking because it is daytime and the temps are just above freezing, but gets heavy enough that you end up with a couple inches accumulation anyway.

And next Friday has me really intrigued. While some models show the heavy snow south of here, I'm almost certain that comes back north and we are in the high threat zone for that one.

Absolutely. I think Monday can thump for a short duration (6 hours or so). NW I-95 stands best chance of several inches of snow. The mid-levels will probably be OK and the lower levels are trending colder too. Just not sure it snows on the coastal plain yet.

by **amugs** Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:35 pm

by **jmanley32** Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:29 pm

amugs wrote:

cannot see what you tried to post here mugs, image is blank.

by **jmanley32** Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:39 pm

Not that it means a lot at 7 days out but 18z GFS has the Fri/Sat storm slipping way to the south in NC/VA.

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