Long Range Discussions 21.0

Mother Nature giveth and Mother Nature taketh away. Snow pack is going to take a beating by the end of next week.

If we lose the -AO/-NAO in a La Nina in February then sig snowfall most likely isn't going to occur around here. Then it'll be confined to CNE/NNE and upstate NY. The WAR will flex its muscles and then we go to a cutter pattern like what would have occurred had we not had the help from the arctic.

My take is to hope the -NAM state can load up again for end of February and into March then maybe we have a shot to go out in style. But if that doesn't occur, then I'd say not too much unless we get a very fortuitous setup in a short window.

TheAresian wrote:Mother Nature giveth and Mother Nature taketh away. Snow pack is going to take a beating by the end of next week.

I'm fine with that personally. It gaveth a whole lot in 2 week span and we'll have deep snow pack for 3 weeks. The past 2 weeks around here has looked like VT.

There's a few inches on the ground here with a possible 6-12" to be added Monday and Tuesday. 6" plus what's on the ground now could possibly be washed away by a 2 day rain event.

AO and NAO go bye bye, we lose them transient cd shot until we maybe see to reload. No positive on upcoming pattern. MJO phase 7 wave, N EPO disintegrates. All LP over Canada on last few runs at 500. Not being negative just disappointed. Models had tjisnpattwrn going and reinvigorating item until early March. The NAO and AO have been N since mid Jan but they were not in good locations for us here in a Nina base state. After this storm next one looks to cut and its same old pattern we had in Jan.
Fun while it was here. Unless the Negative off the West moves further offshore and gets a PNA pumped to help.

amugs wrote:AO and NAO go bye bye, we lose them transient cd shot until we maybe see to reload. No positive on upcoming pattern. MJO phase 7 wave, N EPO disintegrates. All LP over Canada on last few runs at 500. Not being negative just disappointed. Models had tjisnpattwrn going and reinvigorating item until early March. The NAO and AO have been N since mid Jan but they were not in good locations for us here in a Nina base state. After this storm next one looks to cut and its same old pattern we had in Jan.
Fun while it was here. Unless the Negative off the West moves further offshore and gets a PNA pumped to help.

SPRING TIME!!! lol

Irish wrote:

amugs wrote:AO and NAO go bye bye, we lose them transient cd shot until we maybe see to reload. No positive on upcoming pattern. MJO phase 7 wave, N EPO disintegrates. All LP over Canada on last few runs at 500. Not being negative just disappointed. Models had tjisnpattwrn going and reinvigorating item until early March. The NAO and AO have been N since mid Jan but they were not in good locations for us here in a Nina base state. After this storm next one looks to cut and its same old pattern we had in Jan.
Fun while it was here. Unless the Negative off the West moves further offshore and gets a PNA pumped to help.

SPRING TIME!!!  lol

Maybe but March if the pattern reloads yuo are not getting spring

This is what I mean by the what I stated above as well for Thursday Friday storm - this deep trough is to far west adn no blocking over teh top to push this east of us

amugs wrote:

Irish wrote:

amugs wrote:AO and NAO go bye bye, we lose them transient cd shot until we maybe see to reload. No positive on upcoming pattern. MJO phase 7 wave, N EPO disintegrates. All LP over Canada on last few runs at 500. Not being negative just disappointed. Models had tjisnpattwrn going and reinvigorating item until early March. The NAO and AO have been N since mid Jan but they were not in good locations for us here in a Nina base state. After this storm next one looks to cut and its same old pattern we had in Jan.
Fun while it was here. Unless the Negative off the West moves further offshore and gets a PNA pumped to help.

SPRING TIME!!!  lol

Maybe but March if the pattern reloads yuo are not getting spring

This is what I mean by the what I stated above as well for Thursday Friday storm - this deep trough is to far west adn no blocking over teh top to push this east of us

Just having fun, I like most here, love winter and snow. Whatever happens, happens.

amugs wrote:

Irish wrote:

amugs wrote:AO and NAO go bye bye, we lose them transient cd shot until we maybe see to reload. No positive on upcoming pattern. MJO phase 7 wave, N EPO disintegrates. All LP over Canada on last few runs at 500. Not being negative just disappointed. Models had tjisnpattwrn going and reinvigorating item until early March. The NAO and AO have been N since mid Jan but they were not in good locations for us here in a Nina base state. After this storm next one looks to cut and its same old pattern we had in Jan.
Fun while it was here. Unless the Negative off the West moves further offshore and gets a PNA pumped to help.

SPRING TIME!!!  lol

Maybe but March if the pattern reloads yuo are not getting spring

This is what I mean by the what I stated above as well for Thursday Friday storm - this deep trough is to far west adn no blocking over teh top to push this east of us

March is a wild card no matter what the pattern.  But particularly in La Nina.  No one should think that if the rest of February craps the bed then March cannot produce.  Not true.  You don't need  +PNA to get sig snow in March.  Wavelengths can amplify w/out that kind of support.  You just need some transient cold and a vigorous short wave.  My guess is the white gold isn't done with us just yet.  Now if you're on the coastal plain March is very tough to produce that's just climatology.

heehaw453 wrote:

amugs wrote:

Irish wrote:

amugs wrote:AO and NAO go bye bye, we lose them transient cd shot until we maybe see to reload. No positive on upcoming pattern. MJO phase 7 wave, N EPO disintegrates. All LP over Canada on last few runs at 500. Not being negative just disappointed. Models had tjisnpattwrn going and reinvigorating item until early March. The NAO and AO have been N since mid Jan but they were not in good locations for us here in a Nina base state. After this storm next one looks to cut and its same old pattern we had in Jan.
Fun while it was here. Unless the Negative off the West moves further offshore and gets a PNA pumped to help.

SPRING TIME!!!  lol

Maybe but March if the pattern reloads yuo are not getting spring

This is what I mean by the what I stated above as well for Thursday Friday storm - this deep trough is to far west adn no blocking over teh top to push this east of us

March is a wild card no matter what the pattern.  But particularly in La Nina.  No one should think that if the rest of February craps the bed then March cannot produce.  Not true.  You don't need  +PNA to get sig snow in March.  Wavelengths can amplify w/out that kind of support.  You just need some transient cold and a vigorous short wave.  My guess is the white gold isn't done with us just yet.  Now if you're on the coastal plain March is very tough to produce that's just climatology.

Totally and when you have abundance of cold over Canada and a DEEEEEPP SNOWPACK up there it is very easy to tap that with a strong coastal. Winter is never over until it’s over look at 2018, last year as examples – yes we had SSWE that caused each and we can have another one that can produce similar have to look further at the models for this. Again if we see a moderation in the pattern it does not mean it's over. Not wish casting but weather truth. For the NYC Metro region and more so N&W.

I have minimal confidence in Thursday's potential snowfall. It'll depend on positioning of potential High pressure and how long it hangs on. I do think the antecedent mid-levels will be much colder than the Monday night storm. So thump to slop, yeah that's possible... But we have seen models struggle with High pressure positioning of late. Need to let this Tuesday storm clear to know better.

sroc4 wrote:


......So when we get a banana HP set up like this with our low trying to plow through the Tenn valley into the Ohio valley I do not believe a cutter nor a coastal hugger ends up as our end product.  Id be shocked if we didnt see a significant trend colder for the entire coverage area as we head into Sunday for the Tuesday system.  A weaker primary transfering earlier and a LP track just inside to perhaps on the benchmark is my guess ATT simply based on the above stated experiences but again I dont know how it will end in the end.  The coast of course will still need to worry about mixing issue(esp if inside the BM), and since it appears to be a pretty classic Miller B set up, an area of subsidence during the transfer is likely to screw someone.  Should be interesting to see how this theory plays out over the next 3-4days.  IMHO Tuesday has serious blockbuster potential.

WE TRACK!!    

Here is the final excerpt from my write up from Thursday.  I had such high hopes when I wrote this.  Bottom line is this.  Above look at that nice Banana HP that is 1036mb strong extending well down into New England.  Below is the 00z run overnight.  You can clearly see the differences.  First is the strength is now only a 1030 HP. The second is the fact that it doesnt even get down to the Canadian boarder. The resistance for the Low to reform further off the coast is gone. You can see where it will track off the S NJ coast on or perhaps just over E LI towards the Cape which floods the area with the warmth. Why??




Well I also alluded to this several times before. About 3-5days out from the Big one that hit for the region at the beginning of the month is wen I think I personally first mentioned my concerns. That is there is a resistance in the air. The -AO/-NAO couplet has been the single reason for our success as defined by BN temps and AN Snow fall for pretty much all of us since the turn of Jan into Feb. Without it the last two weeks doesnt happen. Plain and simple. But the resistance to the -AO/-NAO has always been there. Here is an excerpt I wrote from about 3-4days out from the "big One".

sroc4 wrote:

The trend seems to be That the main energy seems to be under modeled in the medium range. Hopefully there’s enough relaxation in the PNA and EPO regions, and still enough resistance in the NAO and AO regions that we achieve baby bear, or at least close to it and not an overly amped system that cuts where the majority of us get the slop again.

First part of that quote cant be understated. It was also one of the reasons we hit on the superbowl too. No different with this set up. But back to the resistance.

The difference from the beginning of the month to now is as you can see below the AO/NAO are both going to positive. As much as +1 std deviation positive. The storm at the beginning of the month went from a deep neg state to a "less negative" state (-2.5 to about -0.5) providing enough resistance to get the track right and keep the cold locked in place. This set up is different. With them going positive, its not enough to keep the cold air in place, esp at the mid levels. As usual the southern system has trended stronger as we get in close. Without resistance to the warrmth, the mid levels flip like a switch, because the La Nina Base state in the background, and the MJO in 7 with amplitude. Third image below shows the trough going neg in the Mid CONUS. Without the -NAO/-AO this opens the flood gates to the SE ridge and a warm air mass compliments of enhancement from our strong southern system releasing massive amts of latent heat, which in turn pumps the SE ridge and raises heights. Our confluence, which locks in the cold is angled way to far SW to NE and is too far north resulting in the warm air source regions taking over.






Unfort with the base state of La Nina and the current state of the MJO you can see that with the NAO/AO forecast to remain positive to the end of the month this is going to lead to the pattern we had for much of Jan. Cutter, warm sector, cold behind, cutter, warm sector, cold behind. Nothing this week or for tthe foreseeable future excites me unfort. Until I see something different I likely will remain fairly quiet.

GFS and GFSv16 both showing a good thump for Thursday. Mid-levels much better due to good placement of moderately strong High pressure. IMO the stronger this system on Tuesday is as it pulls out the better we may be. 50/50 low can pull the colder air into the area and potentially help with storm track.

We of course will see if this holds any water in later model runs. There is decent model agreement on a thump for now.

W.R.T. Thursday's Threat

I like the boundary layer pull here from Tuesday's departing storm.  We were not able to pull the boundary layer below us and consequentially most of us will not see any snow from Tuesday's storm.  I'm looking at this trend because I think that can set us up for a thump.  Look at how far this boundary layer as modeled by 12Z Euro today gets pulled.  That tells me thump even if we go to slop at some point in the storm.

Those are things to look for High pressure positioning, boundary layer setup and possible 50/50 ish low to help keep the storm further east. The Atlantic ridge is pretty robust so I don't know if this is going to hold or not. Any bad trends and this winds up like Monday night's mess maybe a little better. We shall see.

SENJsnowman wrote:I think it was rb and sroc who took the time a few years back to explain about wind barbs and how they track where the air is being sourced from. And if I remember correctly, we can see from the barbs in heehaw's 850 map just how cold the source of our air is and how that air is coming straight for us. And thanks guys for the insight- or to whoever it was!!

Right that is the TPV sliding east and this was originally modelled to slide east earlier for Monday's storm. It didn't and stayed in central US and is why places in Tx and Tn that don't normally get sig snow got it. If the TPV is being modelled accurately for Thursday and can beat down the storm's westward trajectory enough then we'll do fine on Thursday. To me it's about that Atlantic ridge and how far it can be beaten down. Big IFs right now...

This is the kind of thing I want to see from the modeling.  18Z GFS shows the heights getting pushed down due to the TPV trough.  This is 78 hours out.  That gives the storm more eastward trajectory.

The TPV being this eastward also pushed the baroclinic zone much further south and east. I just hope the modelling is truly representing reality.

LOL maybe suppression at the end of the day will occur.

18z GFS gives the area G word snow totals for many before a change to frz then ending as rain. Thats really bad too heavy wet snow then encased in ice. Lets hope it trends all the way cold then we can see R work snow totals,. remember Frank is leaving for FL, so we will likely get hit hard.

Thursday front end thump still looks to be on the table on guidance. If things stay reasonably close to what's being shown we'll have a nice thump that probably goes over to some IP/ZR. I'll feel much better if we can hold this look tomorrow 12Z. I don't really look at the NAM until inside 36 hours.

I started a thread to talk about this Thursday's storm

Looks like a warm up next week but check out the one member of the AO absolutely tanks by March 1st!! Off the charts -6????

EPS weeklies
-EPO, -AO and NAO


Delusional or onto something?

That's the control ^

amugs wrote:EPS weeklies  
-EPO, -AO and NAO


Delusional or onto something?

If there is a second warming and displacement of the Strat PV then we'll see this pattern resurface

It may not be as extreme given it will happen in the month of March, but enough to cause issues

Climo is a factor in March

Definitely keep an eye on next Monday.  This is a potent short wave with cold air mass.

Lots can change, but all modelling seems to have this shortwave.