Long Range Discussions 21.0

dkodgis wrote:It looks like it is trending way warmer now and that will kill the chances for snow near the end of next week?

it's not warmth that is killing next weekend's threat, it's cold enough but models have trended weaker with the low and well to the south of our area. It then warms up after that and before you know it we are in the middle of March and the chances of snow become less likely.

Irish wrote:

dkodgis wrote:It looks like it is trending way warmer now and that will kill the chances for snow near the end of next week?

I tried to warn ya, spring is on the way folks.

Irish yes it is but you want warmth, 43 and rain is not warm. 53 and sun is warm tnis time of year yes. April not so much. March is always a volitale month and we will have cold and warm periods alike this.month. Models are hinting at another SSW to take affect mid month into early April.. if that happens and we get another NAO block or AO couplet and the MJO looking to go to 8 then 1 Spring gets put on hold. You have to let the pattern wash out. Time will tell.

From JB
East Based NAO and AK PV sits over it bottling up the cold

NAO slides down over Hudson Bay = colder, stormy weather possibilities. Now is there enough cold air for snow that remains to be seen. Old Farmer Almanac (or is it the regar one) is calling for EC blizzard 3rd week of March.

A significant storm is likely to develop next week. Looking at 500 mb a digging trough with a good ridge to its west. The issue is that the ridge is too far east and it's more than likely that the storm matures offshore too far to affect us. More of a Canadian Maritimes threat at this time.

You need this ridge well west of what you see. Several hundred miles. Is it a dead threat? If I don't see large changes in that structure in 2 days, then yes it's dead IMO.

heehaw453 wrote:A significant storm is likely to develop next week.  Looking at 500 mb a digging trough with a good ridge to its west.  The issue is that the ridge is too far east and it's more than likely that the storm matures offshore too far to affect us.  More of a Canadian Maritimes threat at this time.

You need this ridge well west of what you see.  Several hundred miles.  Is it a dead threat?  If I don't see large changes in that structure in 2 days, then yes it's dead IMO.

Totally heehaw. You beat me to it. While there is a PNA spike towards positive to this time frame Ridge axis needs to be at least near Nevada. That plus the area of confluence In the NE is way to far south compliments of an NAO with a -2 std deviation. Presses as far south as the Va/NC area. Our southern system has no where to go but exit the coast near S Ga/N Fla. That's just not going to cut it. No room to come up. The telles spotted the storm but when and where doesnt look like the our location will be affected. Not dead yet but not excited that enough can change in time. We'll see

Looking pretty boring the next 10 days. The good news is bright sunshine will dominate over that time. Overall its going to be near normal with more days feeling colder than normal. Let's see if we can get some MJO magic for mid to late March

Wow, look at those temps into the 2nd week of March!

Ol Man winter wants one moer shot at winter come mid month for teh Ides of March and the MJO going to Phase 8 then 1
GEFS

EURO

An overwhelmingly forecasted below normal period, with shots of warmth looks likely for next 10 days... tail end guidance is hinting at a significant cold shot march 16-19 pic.twitter.com/or68ZuT770

— NsfwWx (@NsfwWx) March 2, 2021

Here's my guess on what happens over next 2 weeks. The AO goes upward dramatically to +3 in the next week and we warm up into the 60's. Many folks say we are done with snow and there's no way it's going to snow again this season.

The AO then drops to near neutral or slightly negative. We get a storm that gets pushed to our south due to MJO and modest NAO blocking. Interior gets several inches (4" +) and CPK gets a few to hit their 40" for the season. NJ coastal plain will be tough to accumulate much in mid March, but it snows even if white rain.


Not much certainty in this obviously, but I've seen too many times in March after a warm spell that snow comes fairly rapidly in its wake. This year with the AO state it would not all surprise to see a decent March snowfall for the interior.

March always can surprise and I think we all should see another snow event of a few inches before the books close on the 2020-2021 winter.Watch out if you get a few days in the 60's! Remember the Blizzard Of 1888 ( CP and I were there).A few days before, people were sunning themselves on blankets in Central Park in the 60's.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:This morning 6Z GFS. For entertainment purposes only as it is 11 days away and in dreamland, but dreams can be fun.

Sorry, 3 inches aren't a dream for me. However, I know some inland folks would love this. Honestly, I'm in spring mode!

Sorry Spring your going to be delayed rats in fratsin!!

one more major attack of winter lurking. Beware the Ides of March thru Easter, Euro 500 mb pattern showing set up for major cold charge as western trough shears out in 10-15. Cold oozes in before, then charges with and after trough. Late March version of Feb pic.twitter.com/7f5Eush44h

— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) March 5, 2021

The PV that has been sitting stationary over eastern Canada, and has resulted in colder than normal temps last night and thru this weekend, is getting booted by a mid-level ridge and working its way back into the Arctic. Therefore, beginning Tuesday we see warmer than normal temps creep into our area as the SE Ridge dominates nearly the entire eastern seaboard. We are going to hit our first 60 degree day of the season - probably either Tuesday or Wednesday.

TUES



WED



THURS



FRI



Beyond next week there is a chance we return back to colder than normal. We may even see ONE more chance for snow (N&W may see a couple more). I'll admit I am not so enthused about the prospects of more winter weather. Not because I don't want it, but the pattern doesn't seem all that appetizing to me. You need a lot more than just a seasonal trough this time of year, and I don't see enough amplification in the pattern to support any significant snowfall. But if it does happen, it will be the week of the 15th.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Virtually all of this is from a storm on the 18th. Only 13 days to go, lock it up.

I am going to take my time enjoying this map because it's probably the last one I will see until next winter.Anyway, when you get a few days in the 60's in March, watch out a week or so later! Not counting this out!

docstox12 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Virtually all of this is from a storm on the 18th. Only 13 days to go, lock it up.

I am going to take my time enjoying this map because it's probably the last one I will see until next winter.Anyway, when you get a few days in the 60's in March, watch out a week or so later! Not counting this out!

Thats crazy and it will happen because I am supposed to go on a day trip that day hahaha. If it happens will put me over 50 inches which has been quite some time and 10x what I saw last year lol

Cold incoming after a torch= March Madness!!!

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:8 days away now so starting to treat this as is it is plausible, at least for the interior of the forum, NWNJ, SENY, NWCT. It would be a nice topping on a good 7 week period overall.

Yes the ensembles support this time frame about 1 week from now.  There may also be NAO blocking that coincides with this time frame.  50/50 low too?  There will probably be a boundary that sets up that determines the thermal profiles.  Of course the ULL latitude will determine how much and far north the warmth will get at the mid levels.  Can't really afford too far north in mid March. Another thing in March is you don't need the +PNA ridging to render sig snow west of the Fall Line.  Wave lengths are much shorter this time of year.  Coastal plain is always going to be tough for sig snow in mid March unless you have a dynamic system.

This is definitely a window of interest for me.

These 500 mb heights work just fine in March as shown by the 12z GFS.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:If fantasy storms like this verified on these models even half of the time we would average about 200-300 inches per season. We would be the tug hill plateau of NY.

wow when would been the last time all way down to Bronx saw a 20 inch storm in March? Was that 1994? Now 18z today has made. I am a vetting man and my guess is this is a long shot and only for well inland.

jmanley32 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:If fantasy storms like this verified on these models even half of the time we would average about 200-300 inches per season. We would be the tug hill plateau of NY.

wow when would been the last time all way down to Bronx saw a 20 inch storm in March? Was that 1994? Now 18z today has made. I am a vetting man and my guess is this is a long shot and only for well inland.

Impressive. Thats from the 7th. Any idea what todays maps show?

Next Monday into Tuesday could be a close call for another shot at some wintry weather. The long range a couple weeks ago was hinting at something popping in that time frame, so worth watching.

What’s the pump on any precio next week

So..uhm...mid-March snowstorm?