Re: Banter Thread 6.0

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 06, 2022 11:15 am

Happy Birthday, Dunz! Many happy and healthy more!!

And thank you all for the birthday wishes! Belated or not, they all mean the same to me Smile

by **mikeypizano** Thu Jan 06, 2022 1:48 pm

rb924119 wrote:Happy Birthday, Dunz! Many happy and healthy more!!

And thank you all for the birthday wishes! Belated or not, they all mean the same to me

Happy birthday RB and Janet!

by **amugs** Thu Jan 06, 2022 6:00 pm

Delayed openings and closings are flying now. My school said 7:30 tonight well decide on a delay. 5AM we'll let u know if we close. Our administration just don't believe in snow days.

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Jan 06, 2022 8:01 pm

amugs wrote:Delayed openings and closings are flying now. My school said 7:30 tonight well decide on a delay. 5AM we'll let u know if we close. Our administration just don't believe in snow days.

Waldwick is delayed for now, will let them know about 7:30 am for full closure if needed.

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Jan 06, 2022 11:32 pm

Happy Birthday Janet and Ray party

\

hope you both enjoyed your days!!

by **amugs** Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:40 am

JANET mother nature's beauty on your birthday. God Bless and to many more!

by **amugs** Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:42 am

Ratios had to be 20 or 25:1 overnight for .35 QPF.

by **amugs** Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:47 am

amugs wrote:Ratios had to be 20 or 25:1 overnight for .35 QPF.

BOOOOM I was off by a smidgen!!
He's about 6 miles to my east

Just measured 9.3” of snow in Norwood as of 7 AM. The water content is only 0.46” which gives a 20:1 ratio! This is more reminiscent of lake effect snow which will make cleanup easy. pic.twitter.com/AAfoaeqvZy
— Joe DelliCarpini (@JoeDawg42) January 7, 2022

by **amugs** Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:57 am

Great call by HREF . Somehow missed this last night!

by **amugs** Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:02 am

OKX continues Winter Weather Advisory till Jan 7, 12:00 PM EST https://t.co/EyHUUXAaMs pic.twitter.com/9H8njfoX2C
— New York Metro Weather (@nymetrowx) January 7, 2022

by **amugs** Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:18 am

Measured 4.75" not bad at all

by **billg315** Sat Jan 08, 2022 11:32 am

This is two weeks out. But did @aiannone draw up this snow map at home? Laughing

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:20 am

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3786611-natural-gas-up-6-back-above-4-on-cold-weather

Because of the great work our long range crew does, I got into a natural gas investment in December when the weather was mild and the price was low.I saw back then from the long range crew January would be colder.Natural gas back up over 4 bucks (dollars per MM btu) today and BOIL, the ETF I trade up today as well.
Some commodities prices are dependent upon long range weather forecasts and nat gas is one.

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:22 am

billg315 wrote:This is two weeks out. But did @aiannone draw up this snow map at home?

Well, the pattern of the last two snowstorms has been for South Jersey, Jersey Shore and Long Island to be in the heavy snows.,Once these patterns set up, they repeat.We will see this month.

by **SENJsnowman** Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:06 am

docstox12 wrote:
billg315 wrote:This is two weeks out. But did @aiannone draw up this snow map at home?

Well, the pattern of the last two snowstorms has been for South Jersey, Jersey Shore and Long Island to be in the heavy snows.,Once these patterns set up, they repeat.We will see this month.

Two things I’ve learned from Docstox to always watch out for. One is the pattern locking in after just a storm or two. More recently, the pattern has favored cutters and huggers right from the get-go. Are we finally locked in to a pattern that favors the coastal plain/eastern sections? Lord I sure hope so! lol

The other thing Doc has put on my radar is the concept of mean reversion. These 30 year running averages tend to know what they’re talking about, ha ha, so it always makes sense for something different to happen this year than in the most recent years past, or else the averages would always change.

This pattern could easily trend the other way, back to huggers and coastal pain, I mean rain. But in the meantime, man the coast could use a solid month or two of basking in the fruits of this productive pattern. Get us caught up on hitting that mean snowfall over a four year span ‘19-‘22. Makes a lot of sense and seems consistent and plausible with the overall synoptic set up…but pure banter nonetheless!

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:52 am

SENJsnowman wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
billg315 wrote:This is two weeks out. But did @aiannone draw up this snow map at home?

Well, the pattern of the last two snowstorms has been for South Jersey, Jersey Shore and Long Island to be in the heavy snows.,Once these patterns set up, they repeat.We will see this month.

Two things I’ve learned from Docstox to always watch out for. One is the pattern locking in after just a storm or two. More recently, the pattern has favored cutters and huggers right from the get-go. Are we finally locked in to a pattern that favors the coastal plain/eastern sections? Lord I sure hope so! lol

The other thing Doc has put on my radar is the concept of mean reversion. These 30 year running averages tend to know what they’re talking about, ha ha, so it always makes sense for something different to happen this year than in the most recent years past, or else the averages would always change.

This pattern could easily trend the other way, back to huggers and coastal pain, I mean rain. But in the meantime, man the coast could use a solid month or two of basking in the fruits of this productive pattern. Get us caught up on hitting that mean snowfall over a four year span ‘19-‘22. Makes a lot of sense and seems consistent and plausible with the overall synoptic set up…but pure banter nonetheless!

SENJ, so glad you are getting the goods this year!
Trend following and mean reversions via Fibonacci numbers are a few of the tools in my trading toolbox for stocks, bonds, commodities.
Now, what I am hoping for is a huge AREA wide Miller A climbing up the coast tapping into Gulf Moisture with a blocking High in just the right place so everybody gets 20 inches plus in our viewing area.Rare as Hens Teeth but it can happen!

PS: I HATE Miller B's,LOL.

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Jan 10, 2022 2:02 pm

Model runs today are suffering with a bad case of suppression depression. Sad

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 10, 2022 2:09 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Model runs today are suffering with a bad case of suppression depression.

You beat me to it. When the PV is in Canada it becomes very hard for anything to materialize; esp when its centered east of Hudson Bay. The pivot point for energy and storms to begin turning NE is off the coast, so like you said..suppression depression.

I dont like it. I dont like it one bit

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Jan 10, 2022 2:41 pm

sroc4 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Model runs today are suffering with a bad case of suppression depression.

You beat me to it. When the PV is in Canada it becomes very hard for anything to materialize; esp when its centered east of Hudson Bay. The pivot point for energy and storms to begin turning NE is off the coast, so like you said..suppression depression.

I dont like it. I dont like it one bit

We either need the PV to retrograde westward some or just relax a bit otherwise we’ll be in a very cold and dry pattern. At least we’re in a more favorable pattern for snow other than that -PNA crap fest in December. We just need to be patient. The pattern is still evolving. In about a week we should be back in business as far as tracking more legit snow threats.

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 10, 2022 2:41 pm

sroc4 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Model runs today are suffering with a bad case of suppression depression.

You beat me to it. When the PV is in Canada it becomes very hard for anything to materialize; esp when its centered east of Hudson Bay. The pivot point for energy and storms to begin turning NE is off the coast, so like you said..suppression depression.

I dont like it. I dont like it one bit

Too much cold air can be a snow lover's enemy.

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 10, 2022 2:51 pm

I'm glad Frank's scroll is up and running. Was getting ready to cliff jump. LoL.

by **crippo84** Mon Jan 10, 2022 3:03 pm

Yuck. Cold and dry can be as depressing as warm and wet during the winter. Sometimes I'm not sure which I'd prefer since they both throw a wrench in our snowfall opportunities. But when it's bone dry and bitterly cold, that's just...miserable.

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 10, 2022 3:34 pm

crippo84 wrote:Yuck. Cold and dry can be as depressing as warm and wet during the winter. Sometimes I'm not sure which I'd prefer since they both throw a wrench in our snowfall opportunities. But when it's bone dry and bitterly cold, that's just...miserable.

Could not say this any better! If the cold is not accompanied by a heavy snowstorm and an extended snowpack,it is a waste of time.I would rather be on my deck with temps in the 70's smoking a cigar.

by **phil155** Mon Jan 10, 2022 3:43 pm

docstox12 wrote:
crippo84 wrote:Yuck. Cold and dry can be as depressing as warm and wet during the winter. Sometimes I'm not sure which I'd prefer since they both throw a wrench in our snowfall opportunities. But when it's bone dry and bitterly cold, that's just...miserable.

Could not say this any better! If the cold is not accompanied by a heavy snowstorm and an extended snowpack,it is a waste of time.I would rather be on my deck with temps in the 70's smoking a cigar.

Agree 100%

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:10 pm

Yeesh, tough crowd in here today Sad

first, everybody was miserable because it was winter but it wasn’t feeling like winter. Now, as advertised, it’s finally feeling like winter (and will continue to for the foreseeable future) but with mere mention that the first of SEVERAL snow chances may not work out for us, y’all are ready for winter to not feel like winter again?? I just don’t understand.

Good grief.

by **crippo84** Mon Jan 10, 2022 5:02 pm

rb924119 wrote:Yeesh, tough crowd in here today first, everybody was miserable because it was winter but it wasn’t feeling like winter. Now, as advertised, it’s finally feeling like winter (and will continue to for the foreseeable future) but with mere mention that the first of SEVERAL snow chances may not work out for us, y’all are ready for winter to not feel like winter again?? I just don’t understand.

Good grief.

Haha oh no - don't get me wrong. I'm ready to see winter bring more than what it has so far. We definitely need a pattern change and hope for the best w.r.t. snowfall. But morning / evening jogs outside and leisurely trips to the driving range ain't happening with bright sunshine and temps in the upper teens and low 20s lol. Outdoors are cancelled. But at least we have NFL playoffs to enjoy inside with as many ice cold beers as possible.

Am I the only one that takes a 60 volt shock with anything I touch during the extremely cold and dry days? Need some moisture in the air!

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 10, 2022 5:30 pm

docstox12 wrote:
crippo84 wrote:Yuck. Cold and dry can be as depressing as warm and wet during the winter. Sometimes I'm not sure which I'd prefer since they both throw a wrench in our snowfall opportunities. But when it's bone dry and bitterly cold, that's just...miserable.

Could not say this any better! If the cold is not accompanied by a heavy snowstorm and an extended snowpack,it is a waste of time.I would rather be on my deck with temps in the 70's smoking a cigar.

Doc with have a snowpack. It’s two and a half inches of solid snow and ice. I’m okay with it. I realize LI the coastal plain and NYC lost most of not all their snow but I’m good with the cold as long as the ground is white.

Keep up the good work RB and phenomenal call on this pattern change so far ahead of time and almost to the day. Unbelievable what you did.

To call snowstorms weeks or even several days ahead of time is almost impossible. All our experts can do is look for the favorable signs and they’ve been spot on with that.

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