Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
Seems to me 3"+ NW of the I95 maybe possible. I don't think NW of I95 is raining. It will be more dependent on how far south the moisture slides IMO.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
GFS is on board for the area - could this actually be righty this time? If so it gains some credibility back. What's the saying "snow begets snow"
![Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 3 555AC181-30AE-4F7C-9830-D24EAE4A22DE.png.aed78d1d490831e7a57e30e8e626b100](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_02/555AC181-30AE-4F7C-9830-D24EAE4A22DE.png.aed78d1d490831e7a57e30e8e626b100.png)
![Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 3 555AC181-30AE-4F7C-9830-D24EAE4A22DE.png.aed78d1d490831e7a57e30e8e626b100](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_02/555AC181-30AE-4F7C-9830-D24EAE4A22DE.png.aed78d1d490831e7a57e30e8e626b100.png)
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
so looks like the moidels favor N/W or metro area as the sweet spots, Frank had said 15:1 ratios so shouldnt the totals be sig higher so GFS shows 4 for me, wouldnt it be 6 then at 15:1? Did I do the match right its 1.5x the amount? I am very tired so if I did it wrong someone please remind me but anyways is Franks call factoring in the ratios?
Last edited by jmanley32 on Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:28 am; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
How does the event at the end of the week look? Is it light snow for a few days, or is there a chance for more significant accumulations?
lglickman1- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
I think the 14th storm has potential to be a bigger event, correct me if im wrong.lglickman1 wrote:How does the event at the end of the week look? Is it light snow for a few days, or is there a chance for more significant accumulations?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
lglickman1 wrote:How does the event at the end of the week look? Is it light snow for a few days, or is there a chance for more significant accumulations?
It is an over running snow event of snow the GFS has backed off the bigger snows its ensembles is showing so we'll have to see once Tuesdays storm get out of the way to be hones. One at a time peeps.
AND I did not see teh 12Z for Thursday into Friday adn now it shows this - from my boy NFSWX - both Koochie Hoochie Maps that Frank has banned BUT The snow ratio are not 10:1 more like 12/15:1 in NNJ adn LHV/HV
Tomorrow morning
Thursday into Friday
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
amugs wrote:lglickman1 wrote:How does the event at the end of the week look? Is it light snow for a few days, or is there a chance for more significant accumulations?
It is an over running snow event of snow the GFS has backed off the bigger snows its ensembles is showing so we'll have to see once Tuesdays storm get out of the way to be hones. One at a time peeps.
AND I did not see teh 12Z for Thursday into Friday adn now it shows this - from my boy NFSWX - both Koochie Hoochie Maps that Frank has banned BUT The snow ratio are not 10:1 more like 12/15:1 in NNJ adn LHV/HV
Tomorrow morning
Thursday into Friday
I'm pretty sure what you posted above is the total snowfall through 7PM Wednesday Mugs, which would really just be tomorrows event. WTS that's pretty aggressive and I'm all in.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
Did you mean to show the map twice? Is one supposed to be tomorrows? And if so can you post tomorrows kooci moochie map lmao thats hilarious.amugs wrote:lglickman1 wrote:How does the event at the end of the week look? Is it light snow for a few days, or is there a chance for more significant accumulations?
It is an over running snow event of snow the GFS has backed off the bigger snows its ensembles is showing so we'll have to see once Tuesdays storm get out of the way to be hones. One at a time peeps.
AND I did not see teh 12Z for Thursday into Friday adn now it shows this - from my boy NFSWX - both Koochie Hoochie Maps that Frank has banned BUT The snow ratio are not 10:1 more like 12/15:1 in NNJ adn LHV/HV
Tomorrow morning
Thursday into Friday
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
I am sure you are CP lol, yeah im cool with that too but it could scoot south and benefit the metro area and still give you the bulk, im on the cusp of 6" and thats kinda when I consider it a real storm, anything less is a dusting lolCPcantmeasuresnow wrote:amugs wrote:lglickman1 wrote:How does the event at the end of the week look? Is it light snow for a few days, or is there a chance for more significant accumulations?
It is an over running snow event of snow the GFS has backed off the bigger snows its ensembles is showing so we'll have to see once Tuesdays storm get out of the way to be hones. One at a time peeps.
AND I did not see teh 12Z for Thursday into Friday adn now it shows this - from my boy NFSWX - both Koochie Hoochie Maps that Frank has banned BUT The snow ratio are not 10:1 more like 12/15:1 in NNJ adn LHV/HV
Tomorrow morning
Thursday into Friday
I'm pretty sure what you posted above is the total snowfall through 7PM Wednesday Mugs, which would really just be tomorrows event. WTS that's pretty aggressive and I'm all in.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
jmanley32 wrote:so looks like the moidels favor N/W or metro area as the sweet spots, Frank had said 15:1 ratios so shouldnt the totals be sig higher so GFS shows 4 for me, wouldnt it be 6 then at 15:1? Did I do the match right its 1.5x the amount? I am very tired so if I did it wrong someone please remind me but anyways is Franks call factoring in the ratios?
Ratios are 10:1 for you and the city
They are higher Sullivan and Orange counties, as well as Sussex and Warren counties in NJ
3-6 north of I-80
2-4 between 80 and 78
Little to one inch south of 78
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
EURO comes on BOARD!! TOOT TOOT!!
![Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th - Page 3 EtuR8ybXIAI2xwa?format=jpg&name=medium](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtuR8ybXIAI2xwa?format=jpg&name=medium)
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
Frank_Wx wrote:jmanley32 wrote:so looks like the moidels favor N/W or metro area as the sweet spots, Frank had said 15:1 ratios so shouldnt the totals be sig higher so GFS shows 4 for me, wouldnt it be 6 then at 15:1? Did I do the match right its 1.5x the amount? I am very tired so if I did it wrong someone please remind me but anyways is Franks call factoring in the ratios?
Ratios are 10:1 for you and the city
They are higher Sullivan and Orange counties, as well as Sussex and Warren counties in NJ
3-6 north of I-80
2-4 between 80 and 78
Little to one inch south of 78
Did yuo guys confer?
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
12z EURO misses the wednesday/thursday storm
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
So I had to look up these highways cuz I am not from NJ (wish you would put in NY highways lol, it appears I am north of I-80 but only by maybe 10-15 miles, is that enough to get into the 3-6? or should I say 2-6 being I am not that far north from I-80 but I am quite far north from I-78. And what is the start time of this?Frank_Wx wrote:jmanley32 wrote:so looks like the moidels favor N/W or metro area as the sweet spots, Frank had said 15:1 ratios so shouldnt the totals be sig higher so GFS shows 4 for me, wouldnt it be 6 then at 15:1? Did I do the match right its 1.5x the amount? I am very tired so if I did it wrong someone please remind me but anyways is Franks call factoring in the ratios?
Ratios are 10:1 for you and the city
They are higher Sullivan and Orange counties, as well as Sussex and Warren counties in NJ
3-6 north of I-80
2-4 between 80 and 78
Little to one inch south of 78
Last edited by jmanley32 on Mon Feb 08, 2021 2:33 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
wow where do I sign? It is a tad early for them to be calling but then again it is only 2-3 days away, and for tomorrow I would think WSW or at least advisories would be up by now. Strange. Thats JUST for the 11th storm? Where are they seeing these kind of tottals for NYC area, did I miss a model? Nonetheless its crazy we are going boom boom boom day after day with snow, its amazing. The snow pack here is higher than i remember in at least 4-5 yrs and the cold did not ice it over its still fluffy unless you step in it then it compacts and its perfect snowball and snowman snow.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
18Z NAM is south.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
Is that good for me in Port Jefferson that Nam is South?
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
Wow i wasn't even pay attention to the nam, it had much of the area out of any snow at 12z and 18z as nutley said came way south, has rain into NYC area at one point, do you guys think that happens?
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CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
WWA up for my area now.NWS staying with 2 to 4 inches.Frank's 3 to 6 has a shot.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
Congrats northern guys looks like this is your storm, hopefully we all see something on 11th/12th. WWA doesn't include southern WC but thats okay, A day or two break is kinda needed here to clean up some more.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
WPC has .10-.25" qpf for the entire day tomorrow for my area, so maybe we could get a few inches out of it.
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
NWS Upton WWA Criteria:
Winter Weather Advisory
Issued for a winter weather event in which there is more than one of the following: snow, sleet, and ice (freezing rain), and one of the advisory criteria is met but does not exceed warning criteria. In addition, a winter weather advisory will be issued for an all-snow event if the advisory criteria is met but does not exceed the warning criteria. The advisory criteria is 3 inches of snow and/or sleet expected in a 12 hour period, or a trace of ice accumulation. An advisory may still be warranted if lesser accumulations will significantly impact mass transit and/or utilities.
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Re: Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th
By that map it appears to meet criteria.aiannone wrote:
NWS Upton WWA Criteria:
Winter Weather Advisory
Issued for a winter weather event in which there is more than one of the following: snow, sleet, and ice (freezing rain), and one of the advisory criteria is met but does not exceed warning criteria. In addition, a winter weather advisory will be issued for an all-snow event if the advisory criteria is met but does not exceed the warning criteria. The advisory criteria is 3 inches of snow and/or sleet expected in a 12 hour period, or a trace of ice accumulation. An advisory may still be warranted if lesser accumulations will significantly impact mass transit and/or utilities.
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